Tropical Hurricane Milton

[deltadog03]

Crazy consistency with HWRF.

Someone correct me if I’m wrong, but all of the hurricane models are based off the GFS conditions right?

 

[Snowfan]

945 mb.

 

[Henry2326]

Outside of the short term movement, the movement to the NE on a dime is what will be super interesting. Could be a Sarasota or Tampa landfall IMO.

Nah.....it will "breeze by and push a s__t ton of water in the bay. But will be north of there. See hwrf.

 

[Psalm 148:8]

Good bye Disneyworld! I have friends in the western Tampa area that I told yesterday to evacuate and advised them which areas of GA were not damaged by Helene per GA State Emergency Management.

 

[Henry2326]

Good bye Disneyworld! I have friends in the western Tampa area that I told yesterday to evacuate and advised them which areas of GA were not damaged by Helene per GA State Emergency Management.

Good job! It's a nutty decision to sit there and hope for the best.

 

[Wild Weather Monger]

I think it’s possible. All the short term models are busting right now except a few southerly ones. We shall see but heck I agree with you

I've seen hurricanes get drawn into a landfall on the Yucatan. At a minimum, it now seems Milton will be at least affected by proximity to the Yucatan.

This isn't to imply the southerly component to the track is currently being influenced by the land mass but rather pointing out an even further southward tug into a landfall is something to watch for once the storm gets north of the landmass.

 

[rburrel2]

Feels like this storm could get really wild with no secondary wind maxima yet. Wondering if we get up to 170-180mph today. Also worst case scenario is probably if the Yucatán effect disrupts and kicks off a quicker ERC… Florida doesn’t want time for a new larger eye to form and establish before it feels the effects of the trough and starts transitioning.

Ideal scenario would be the pinhole eye holds on as long as possible and then it collapses at the same time wind shear picks up and dry air starts gushing in.

 

[deltadog03]

The problem with the HWRF it never has Milton get below 22N. Well…Milton is already south of that on an ESE movement now.

 

[Henry2326]

Crazy consistency with HWRF.

Someone correct me if I’m wrong, but all of the hurricane models are based off the GFS conditions right?

I think only HWRF......HMON aligned.
The HAFS' are south of those 2.

 

[Brent]

Pinhole eye developing

That's how Wilma went below 900 mb

 

[Henry2326]

The problem with the HWRF it never has Milton get below 22N. Well…Milton is already south of that on an ESE movement now.

GFS does and it brings it in to the same landfall.

 

[ForsythSnow]

10 mile wide eye...
105
URNT12 KWBC 071203
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL142024
A. 07/11:34:51Z
B. 21.78 deg N 092.23 deg W
C. NA
D. 949 mb
E. 005 deg 24 kt
F. CLOSED
G. C10
H. NA
I. NA
J. 223 deg 117 kt
K. 128 deg 7 nm 11:33:04Z
L. NA
M. NA
N. 028 deg 113 kt
O. 296 deg 8 nm 11:36:50Z
P. 15 C / 2454 m
Q. 21 C / 2434 m
R. 12 C / NA
S. 1234 / NA
T. 0.01 / 0.25 nm
U. NOAA3 0714A MILTON OB 11
MAX FL WIND 117 KT 128 / 7 NM 11:33:04Z
MAX FL TEMP 25 C 128 / 7 NM FROM FL CNTR

 

[jrips27]

Hail in the eyewall

 

[Brick Tamland]

I think it's going to get to a cat 5 and hopefully weaken to a cat 4 before landfall. This is just the norm now for systems in the Gulf.

 

[deltadog03]

GFS does and it brings it in to the same landfall.

And it could very well be right for sure.

 

[SD]

I think that area to the NE is interesting. I swear all of the rapid deepening/low pressure canes in recent years have had some form of that

 

[BHS1975]

I think that area to the NE is interesting. I swear all of the rapid deepening/low pressure canes in recent years have had some form of that

I'm sure Web has an answer for that.


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[BHS1975]

Patricia2


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[Belle Lechat]

I think that area to the NE is interesting. I swear all of the rapid deepening/low pressure canes in recent years have had some form of that

 

[Brick Tamland]

I think that area to the NE is interesting. I swear all of the rapid deepening/low pressure canes in recent years have had some form of that

Looks like a mini Milton.