Either way big swells coming to the east coast will be nice for a beach trip. If it were to hit land I believe it’s gonna be Bermuda up into New England/Canada area…not the Carolinas.
There's just no real pathway for Larry to go much further west than already modeled. That first trough will turn him and that 2nd trough dropping down and moving off NE will kick him. The models are going to have to change some pretty large scale features in big ways to change this outcome IMO.
Keep in mind that there has yet to be any south of due west motion since TC genesis. So, that actually occurring during the next 12-18 hours remains to be seen. The modeling I've seen is due west or just N of due west. So, it is possible. In case it does, I have my own list as of 2011 because I did my own research on WSW motion in the E ATL 10+ years ago:
From my 8/31/11 analysis:
"Looking back all the way to 1851, I found only 30 TS+'s that showed some WSW motion during their early lives in the eastern Atlantic (including just during TD stage), indicative of pretty strong E ATL sfc high pressure to the north. Here are some stats:
1) Out of these 30, 12 (40%) hit the US (all but Carol of 1953 hit as a hurricane..Carol was a grazer), which is 2.4 times the 1 in 6 chance for ALL Cape Verde type storms since 1960 (w/# days African coast to US)(all but Able and Fran were cat 4+ at strongest):
- #6 of 1893 (GA/SC) (14)
- #4 of 1928 (FL)(11)
- #4 of 1947 (FL, LA) (14)
- Able of 1952 (SC) (13)
- Carol of 1953 (ME grazed) (11)
- Donna of 1960 (FL, NC, New England) (12)
- Dora of 1964 (FL) (13)
- Allen of 1980 (TX) (12)
- Hugo of 1989 (SC) (12)
- Fran of 1996 (NC) (14)
- Isabel of 2003 (NC) (15)
- Ivan of 2004 (AL/FL) (16)
The 18 that didn't hit the US (cat 4+ at strongest only Gabrielle, Luis, Dean, Bill, and Igor):
- #2 of 1927
- Charlie of 1950
- Dog of 1951
- Fox of 1951
- Carol of 1965
- Anna of 1969
- Christine 1973
- Earl 1980
- Gabrielle 1989
- Fran of 1990
- Danny of 1991
- Luis of 1995
- Gustav of 1996
- Ivan of 1998
- Dean of 2007
- Bill of 2009
- Fred of 2009
- Igor of 2010"
To update my 2011 analysis, I just checked for WSW movers during 2011-20 and found one: Helene of 2018. It didn't hit the US:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tracks/tracks-at-2018.png
So, if I add that to my previous analysis, I now have 12 hitting the US and 19 not. That is still a pretty high 39% US hit rate, much higher than that for all eastern Atlantic storms. Also, if I were to ignore those that occurred during El Nino since we're not in one, the % is even higher.