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Tropical Hurricane Isaias

North Carolina has declared a State of Emergency due to Hurricane Isaias.
EDIT: Florida declared one earlier today.
 
metwannabe said:
With regard to the eps, no surprise, weaker means west side of guidance and stronger east side with 0 ots.
Click to expand...

Almost makes it a nowcasting scenario. If it starts to degrade or continues organizing will likely lead to a better idea of which camp is looking most likely. G4 flights have started so we will see how that impacts models.
 
I’m guessing that if NC continues to have a chance of the effects that a TS or H watch will be issued tomorrow afternoon?


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GI-V flight just found that ridge is a little stronger than the models indicate.
 
Lickwx said:
Ocracoke is evacuating already !
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To be fair they are a little island basically disconnected from everyone haha. Maybe someone can answer this for me. In a state of emergency is it typically left up to local officials to make evacuation orders for their specific towns or does Roy Cooper usually override everyone with a general order
 
163
WTNT34 KNHC 312049
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Isaias Advisory Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020
500 PM EDT Fri Jul 31 2020

...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA EAST
COAST...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AND HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE TO SPREAD
ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.6N 75.7W
ABOUT 195 MI...320 KM SSE OF NASSAU
ABOUT 330 MI...535 KM SE OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the east coast of Florida from
Boca Raton to the Volusia/Brevard County Line.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect from the Volusia/Brevard County Line
to the Flagler/Volusia County Line and from south of Boca Raton to
Hallendale Beach.

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for the east coast of Florida from
Jupiter Inlet to Ponte Vedre Beach.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect from the Flagler/Volusia County
Line to Ponte Vedre Beach.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Lake Okeechobee.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Boca Raton to the Volusia/Brevard County Line Florida
* Northwestern Bahamas
* Southeastern Bahamas
* Central Bahamas

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Hallendale Beach to south of Boca Raton Florida
* Volusia-Brevard County Line to the Flagler/Volusia County Line

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Jupiter Inlet to Ponte Vedre Beach Florida

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Turks and Caicos Islands
* North of Ocean Reef to south of Boca Raton Florida
* Lake Okeechobee

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Flagler/Volusia County Line to Ponte Vedre Beach Florida

Interests elsewhere along the southeast coast of the United States
should monitor the progress of Isaias. Additional watches or
warnings may be required later tonight and Saturday.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.
Click to expand...
Hurricane warning for portions of Florida's east coast.
 
The beefy WAR strikes again. Seems to be the common theme these days with way fewer OTS tracks.


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About to close off the eye, so shear or not this thing has put in work today and continued to become better organized.......the deeper and stronger it gets the further east in track guidance it will go.....I would caution the central and eastern NC peeps to keep thinking along the lines of this staying far enough off Florida to make a run at NC as a Cat 1/2 cane.....

Looking at modeling the models that get the current pressure closest stay east and are bigger threats to NC, something like the 12Z HMON for example.....recon is about to sample the center and I suspect they find pressure down a bit and dropping....
 
18Z GFS rides practically the entire FL/GA/SC coast until going well inland into NE SC and then into NC.
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
Any thoughts about the dry air that some storm2k guys were talking about (one being a met)?
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Dry air can hurt a tropical system but I’ve also seen circumstances where the storm develops a solid core and walls itself off from the dry air as well. The biggest issue with dry air is if strong shear is injecting it into the core of the storm imo.
 
Thought someone who isn’t familiar with canes might like to see this.

88c34e3ff46404940aa33b5cbeeb15be.jpg
 
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