Cary_Snow95
Member
00z GFS is much stronger and in return further east so far out to 72
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Tropical Hurricane Isaias
- Thread starter Snowfan
- Start date
Cary_Snow95
Member
Yeah it has been winding it up. Also the farthest east
SimeonNC
Member
Literally went to another tab for a bit and came back to see that this is apparently an 80mph hurricane now. In the span of an hour we already exceeded the maximum intensity forecast...
Brent
Member
To be fair the 11pm was a copy paste lol
Downeastnc
Member
Sure the Ukie had a high end Cat 2 maybe Cat 3 into NC last night.....but the consensus was TS maybe weak cane at best....the current ICON hasa 1005mb low over Washington NC.....GFS looks like a solid IBX hit....MHX to Nags Head...going to be a long 3.5 days but looks like a daytime hit WOOOHOOOO I hate them at night....also not kidding around sucker is scooting
Brent
Member
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 80 mph (130 km/h)
with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during
the next 48 hours.
Yeah ok NHC they only strengthen it 5 mph lol
with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during
the next 48 hours.
Yeah ok NHC they only strengthen it 5 mph lol
Downeastnc
Member
Pressure is still high probably would see it use this energy to grow the core and that probably would keep it fairly steady unless it stays a extremely small storm which seems unlikely.....still saying stuff like little change is strength is forecast just sets them up for eating those words if its 120 mph by 11 am tomorrow.
Brent
Member
Remember when the GFS was killing it
What happened to all the shear???
What happened to all the shear???
Would think with the position of the Trough to it’s west that it would have a solid chance at getting strong since it would be ventilated, I haven’t been paying attention much so I might be wrong
Tarheel17
Member
Brad P was noting how dang hot it is in the Gulf Stream right now. Mid to Upper 80's. Definitely keeping a close eye on this as we head into the weekend.
Downeastnc
Member
Shocking huh the GFS under doing west atl ridges.....
Cary_Snow95
Member
Even with that change it was still east of 18z
You are also going to have to watch the way the jet sets up. That map above almost tells/shows me a very good outflow channel is possible to the west of the system.
Brent
Member
Ukmet is likely a major into NC 947 mb and then it basically hits NJ
TROPICAL STORM ISAIAS ANALYSED POSITION : 20.0N 71.3W
ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092020
LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 31.07.2020 0 20.0N 71.3W 1002 44
1200UTC 31.07.2020 12 21.4N 73.6W 997 49
0000UTC 01.08.2020 24 23.0N 75.4W 992 57
1200UTC 01.08.2020 36 24.7N 77.1W 987 60
0000UTC 02.08.2020 48 25.9N 78.0W 980 61
1200UTC 02.08.2020 60 27.2N 78.4W 975 61
0000UTC 03.08.2020 72 28.6N 78.8W 968 69
1200UTC 03.08.2020 84 30.0N 78.9W 967 69
0000UTC 04.08.2020 96 31.8N 78.3W 959 77
1200UTC 04.08.2020 108 34.7N 77.1W 947 74
0000UTC 05.08.2020 120 38.8N 74.8W 964 70
1200UTC 05.08.2020 132 42.8N 71.6W 978 57
0000UTC 06.08.2020 144 45.9N 68.9W 996 33
TROPICAL STORM ISAIAS ANALYSED POSITION : 20.0N 71.3W
ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092020
LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 31.07.2020 0 20.0N 71.3W 1002 44
1200UTC 31.07.2020 12 21.4N 73.6W 997 49
0000UTC 01.08.2020 24 23.0N 75.4W 992 57
1200UTC 01.08.2020 36 24.7N 77.1W 987 60
0000UTC 02.08.2020 48 25.9N 78.0W 980 61
1200UTC 02.08.2020 60 27.2N 78.4W 975 61
0000UTC 03.08.2020 72 28.6N 78.8W 968 69
1200UTC 03.08.2020 84 30.0N 78.9W 967 69
0000UTC 04.08.2020 96 31.8N 78.3W 959 77
1200UTC 04.08.2020 108 34.7N 77.1W 947 74
0000UTC 05.08.2020 120 38.8N 74.8W 964 70
1200UTC 05.08.2020 132 42.8N 71.6W 978 57
0000UTC 06.08.2020 144 45.9N 68.9W 996 33
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Cary_Snow95
Member
Second pass is showing 990 mb....
Downeastnc
Member
Brent
Member
Euro barely not hitting FL pretty much the same been closer to FL than the GFS and Ukmet
Cary_Snow95
Member
Much slower than gfs too
Brent
Member
I don't foresee this ending well
Downeastnc
Member
HMON basically identical to Ukie with pressure and landfall/track through NC...
Brent
Member
Wow Myrtle Beach landfall on the Euro
Downeastnc
Member
Pressure looks to be at or below 990 now.....
6z spaghetti models
Downeastnc
Member
I love watching these things develop, the core is warming and expanding and this allows the wind field to expand and capitalize on the pressure drops.....then the process will repeat, crazy that the Euro/Icon have weaker TS and the HMON/Ukie Cat 3 runs, the GFS para inched back west with pressures in the 960's......being I have skin in the game those difference matter a wee little bit.....
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Definitely expanding wind field looking for Carolina landfall possible SC from 0Z Euro.
Euro looks very good for a PRE 
00z EPS
Based on tropical tidbits looks like two recon planes are on their way.
Downeastnc
Member
Lots of strong Euro ens that match up pretty well with the Ukie/HMON 00Z runs....
After models overnight it’s safe to say the shift west along the coast is not done yet.
Downeastnc
Member
5am NHC cone seems to imply a 80 mph Cat 1 landfall over the general MHX area sometime around 2pm Monday afternoon
Is there a point where we start watching the 3km NAM? Because anything near that would not be good.
Downeastnc
Member
I dunno the models that run closer to the coast especially FL to lower SC all run weak TS's, the ens and models that run deeper stronger storms stay east.....it will all come down to how the trough/WAR setup works out...the amount of model agreement though is fairly scary.....
6z 12k Nam, 3k Nam, and also the Icon, shifted west and ride the coast now.
And the 3k was still very worrisome even shows rapid intensification in the short range and gets even stronger once it gets over the Gulf Stream.
Wow 6z Gfs shifted west much closer to the SE coastline.
6z Gfs Landfall looks to be around Myrtle Beach SC.