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Tropical Hurricane Isaias

SD said:
Skeptical at best. Even if it were to stay offshore it's going to start interacting with the trough to the west. To me the setup is still solid to get a PRE or left of track event going.
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I just want some decent wind out of it.
 
Looking like the new center is going to be quite a bit north of where the models initialized and it looks like we are going to possibly have a stronger storm. Does that mean it will recurve sooner or take it closer to Florida before the recurve?
 
guiness187055 said:
Looking like the new center is going to be quite a bit north of where the models initialized and it looks like we are going to possibly have a stronger storm. Does that mean it will recurve sooner or take it closer to Florida before the recurve?
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Gotta look at surface instead of general swirl. Recon says further south west per their flight obs.
 
SD said:
Skeptical at best. Even if it were to stay offshore it's going to start interacting with the trough to the west. To me the setup is still solid to get a PRE or left of track event going.
Click to expand...

Imma hold you to this. Lol. If I don't get rain, I'm going to @ you.
 
SD said:
Skeptical at best. Even if it were to stay offshore it's going to start interacting with the trough to the west. To me the setup is still solid to get a PRE or left of track event going.
Click to expand...

This. Models cranked out almost no precip inland from Dorian last year (similar setup), and Triangle area generally received a healthy 2-3" soaking.
 
ForsythSnow said:
Gotta look at surface instead of general swirl. Recon says further south west per their flight obs.
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That’s where the old center is located and soon to die off .. a clear new center is forming just north of the Island and I presume that it will reach towards the surface later today .. 00z guidance tonight will be most optimal for getting a better idea of what’s going to happen later
 
SD said:
Skeptical at best. Even if it were to stay offshore it's going to start interacting with the trough to the west. To me the setup is still solid to get a PRE or left of track event going.
Click to expand...

We really gotta keep an eye on how the models handle the diabatic heating this will be dumping into the ridge to its west and northwest, seen so many cases where this adjusted back west at the last second with an incoming trough to its west. Even a very slight change there could change the trajectory from slightly offshore to 95 corridor
 
Things are about to ramp up quick with the new center forming along the north coast.


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Webberweather53 said:
We really gotta keep an eye on how the models handle the diabatic heating this will be dumping into the ridge to its west and northwest, seen so many cases where this adjusted back west at the last second with an incoming trough to its west. Even a very slight change there could change the trajectory from slightly offshore to 95 corridor
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Webber, so you aren’t completely sold on this thing missing Florida?


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ForsythSnow said:
Gotta look at surface instead of general swirl. Recon says further south west per their flight obs.
Click to expand...

The old center is irrelevant now though. MLC is just offshore and this is wrapping up nicely. Compare this AM with now. It is organizing despite the proximity to land imo and the surface center will jump north, if it hasn’t already.

3AA8A956-CB51-46D4-8890-0D3E5C80B744.jpg

381750BE-67A0-44EA-85C2-83E838CC60DF.jpg
 
That satellite is a solid look once it clears the island..... really want to see where the Euro goes
 
SD said:
That satellite is a solid look once it clears the island..... really want to see where the Euro goes
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Yeah look better than I was anticipating.

Hope they start getting some G4 missions rolling to make up for lost commercial traffic over the atlantic.
 
Weird, the Euro keeps fluctuating like crazy, I saw it go from 975mb to 990 in about 12hrs.
 
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