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Tropical Hurricane Isaias

ForsythSnow said:
I'd be curious how large the TS wind field ends up getting ultimately. It's grown massively in the last day.
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This storm, given the pressure gradient, will bring near-tropical storm gusts all the way to the coastal Carolinas IMO. Nothing crazy, but still.
 
I feel like the coast and Southern areas of Alabama could clearly see some damage and power outages, but all these 10M wind maps seem to never verify up this way IMO. I mean we survived Ivan with power the whole time. I may be completely wrong, but we will see how this evolves for all the inland areas. I also may be doing some wishful thinking due to my love for the crimson tide, lol.

Soils are also pretty dry considering the drought and how little rain we have had lately.
 
TileDude said:
If the storm continues to trend east, Tuscaloosa may end up on the west side of the remaining core of the storm as it move through the state. May not be as great of storm damage if that were to occur possibly.
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Thanks. The point some of us have been making is the double standard being applied regarding the concern for the attendees in Tuscaloosa vs that for those in Atlanta:

Tuscaloosa: SATURDAY
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. SHOWERS, COOLER
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. NORTHEAST WINDS 25 TO 30 MPH WITH
GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH, BECOMING SOUTH 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO
30 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF RAIN NEAR 100 PERCENT.


Atlanta: SATURDAY
SHOWERS. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
MORNING, THEN A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. BREEZY
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. EAST WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS
UP TO 50 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN NEAR 100 PERCENT.

—————

As one can see, the forecast is actually much worse for the afternoon gametime in ATL for Duke/GT than it is not just for the evening gametime in Tuscaloosa but even during the tailgating time in Tuscaloosa well before the game even starts!

So, gusts to 50 with possible thunderstorms/heavy rain and even a slight chance for a tornado in ATL for the game itself vs gusts only to 30, much lighter rain, and no thunderstorms in Tuscaloosa during the entire PM tailgating period well before the game even starts!
 
10% tornado probabilities for the Florida panhandle today and threat expands north into tomorrow. SPC mentioned consideration for adding a CIG1 for saturday. WSBTV got to be sweating bullets about the possibility of having to break in for tornado warnings tomorrow evening.1791556871984.png
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BufordWX said:
10% tornado probabilities for the Florida panhandle today and threat expands north into tomorrow. SPC mentioned consideration for adding a CIG1 for saturday. WSBTV got to be sweating bullets about the possibility of having to break in for tornado warnings tomorrow evening.View attachment 198672
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Hard to believe as fast as this thing will be moving, they have the tornado risk dropping off below Atlanta.
 
GaWx said:
It’s likely largely related to the dewpoints falling off notably as one approaches the S ATL metro due to the wedge’s influence:

2PM EDT Saturday
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Yeah I think the wedge is in effect as far south as me at least for today. Gonna be very close on if it erodes and gets to the 70's or ends up staying in the 60's tomorrow.

I think Isaias has probably peaked. The IR has looked less impressive since 10:30.
 
GaWx said:
It’s likely largely related to the dewpoints falling off notably as one approaches the S ATL metro due to the wedge’s influence:

2PM EDT Saturday
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Pretty big difference between the GFS and the Euro for the exact same time tomorrow afternoon. Although I wonder if the Euro is struggling to resolve the wedge. Ive seen it play out enough times to never bet aginst the wedge winning out!1791558695810.png
 
BufordWX said:
Pretty big difference between the GFS and the Euro for the exact same time tomorrow afternoon. Although I wonder if the Euro is struggling to resolve the wedge. Ive seen it play out enough times to never bet aginst the wedge winning out!View attachment 198679
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The EURO remains too far west. It's notable that the long forecast bend to the NNW following landfall, as the interaction with the approaching shortwave from Texas is no longer shown in the NHC official forecast. I'm sure this, along with the increased intensity of the storm, is why N. Georgia has had the high-wind warning hoisted.
 
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