Tropical Hurricane Idalia

[JHS]

No. It has never, ever been considered a reliable tropical model. I tried to make that point last night, and it was met with sarcasm about only believing in the Euro...or some such nonsense. I still maintain that last night's run (and today's 12z 3K run) tracking it near Columbia and into the NC coastal plain is too far west/north. But we'll see.

Yeah, that is way too far west. It will never be more than 30 miles from the coast in SC.

 

[iGRXY]

So far the GS through 27 is lock step with its 6z run.

 

[NoSnowATL]

GFS 12z- Looks to be almost the same as 6Z. Tad weaker by 2mb. Still west of NHC track.

 

[Brent]

Shes about ready to go off

 

[WXinCanton]

CMC Brings it much further inland almost to Macon

 

[iGRXY]

Shes about ready to go offView attachment 136613

976Mb already, I definitely think the 930's are looking more and more likely. She looks great right now and is about to go into favorable shear and 90 degree bath waters.

 

[$alt]

Reminder. The furthest edges (west or east) of the nhc cone to the lines can be where the center actually tracks. Not impacts within and outside it.

I think the cone is fine for what the models show currently, on either direction. Try not to get caught up directly into the very middle of it circulation/track wise.

 

[NoSnowATL]

12Z CMC- WAY West. Past Deltas Do not pass line.

 

[$alt]

The only global models that haven't had a substantially large west shift that I have seen are the icon and euro. Probably ukmet too, no access to current data though.

 

[Chazwin]

GFS 12z- Looks to be almost the same as 6Z. Tad weaker by 2mb. Still west of NHC track.

Looking at the 500mb chart this morning, there is some weakness extending from the NW over Louisiana. I wonder if the globals are picking up that and trying to pull it just a little to the west.

 

[Rain Cold]

12Z CMC- WAY West. Past Deltas Do not pass line.

Lots of water going up into the bay with that track.

 

[BHS1975]

The only global models that haven't had a substantially large west shift that I have seen are the icon and euro. Probably ukmet too, no access to current data though.

The HRRR does good with track.


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[SD]

You can see the PRE/north of track precip distribution setting up on a lot of the 12z models. There's likely to be a focused band of heavy precip N/NW of the track

 

[NoSnowATL]

Tad weaker, tad faster and tad NW of 6z.

 

[NCSNOW]

Check out the 6-8 ft swells at Holden from franklin. Great day to surf

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[packfan98]

Gentle Reminder to keep the bellyaching about not getting rain in your backyard in the Whamby Thread.

 

[Snowfan]

 

[Tarheel1]

Looks to be moving slightly W of due N

 

[NoSnowATL]

Last frame its starting to turn NE.

 

[Nerman]

Reminder. The furthest edges (west or east) of the nhc cone to the lines can be where the center actually tracks. Not impacts within and outside it.

I think the cone is fine for what the models show currently, on either direction. Try not to get caught up directly into the very middle of it circulation/track wise.

I'm comparing the hurricane models to the cone and I guess you could say the center is on the very western part of the cone. It's close though and I thought they'd give themselves a little wiggle room. Any future jog west and it's out of the cone. Same with the GFS.

Someone made a good point about the hurricane warnings already up in this area though. Hopefully that gets the locals attention. I just worry people look at these paths verbatim like they did with Ian thinking it was going into Tampa.