Cedar Key might be too far east.. it seems to be right on the eastern edge of latest guidance. Definitely think it’s not going in west of 85N.
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Tropical Hurricane Idalia
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iGRXY
Member
And the 3K is well west. Just ignore it at this point cause they're going to SPAM the hell out of the drought thing and no rain like they're getting cash for each post.
NHC not buying what the NAM (and HRRR tbh) is selling just yet, seem pretty locked in on the track
HugeSnowStick
Member
This sure looks NNW, even WNW at the moment. It looks like it is even west of 85W.
The storm is going to come roaring into the NE Florida panhandle with a brisk forward speed of nearly 20mph. High winds will extend further inland than is usual for a landfalling GOM cane this time of year.
They also upped the storm surge for the landfall area to 10-15 ft.
Yeah that's not getting a bunch of attention but it will be moving quick at landfall, you are correct, could be a large area of power outages
Brick Tamland
Member
NHC looks south and east of what most of the models are showing.
Nerman
Member
I'm surprised they didn't expand the cone west from everything we're seeing on the model runs. People only have today to evacuate.NHC not buying what the NAM (and HRRR tbh) is selling just yet, seem pretty locked in on the track
This is way out there and it's the euro control but it loops Idalia out into the atlantic then backs it into the outer banks around hour 270. Cant say I've seen that before.
To be fair, NHC always waits a few model runs before adjusting. If there are like 3 runs of the GFS that shift west, they will finally start making adjustments and they don’t do knee jerk reactions to one run. They were really bad about this last year. But the track does have a very tight cluster at this moment, will be fun to watchNHC not buying what the NAM (and HRRR tbh) is selling just yet, seem pretty locked in on the track
Brick Tamland
Member
Yeah, models look more around Fish Creek or Perry landfall, and NHC track center is more like Cedar Key right now.
iGRXY
Member
Their tracks are always to a Tee what the spaghetti plots show. Maybe a touch of variation but I never see them do anything but maintain the track based on whatever the latest run was. For example the track above is like identical to the most recent spaghetti run a couple of hours ago:NHC not buying what the NAM (and HRRR tbh) is selling just yet, seem pretty locked in on the track
Right now those a further east vs what a lot of the global and mesoscale models are currently showing.
FamouslyHot
Member
Genuine question: has the NAM ever been known for any degree of accurate forecasting for tropical systems? Happy to look at weenie maps but as far as I remember it always over amplifies intensity and is not exceptionally accurate for track either.
iGRXY
Member
The track is usually within a general area of other guidance. It's the strength that it always WAYYYYY over exaggerates. But oddly enough the most recent update is right in lock step with the Hurricane models strength wise.
No. It has never, ever been considered a reliable tropical model. I tried to make that point last night, and it was met with sarcasm about only believing in the Euro...or some such nonsense. I still maintain that last night's run (and today's 12z 3K run) tracking it near Columbia and into the NC coastal plain is too far west/north. But we'll see.
Nerman
Member
That seems like a very dangerous recipe to only base it off spaghetti plots when most models are showing it west. Especially this close.
Yeah but to be fair there are H warnings outside of the cone, so in theory those areas should still be preparing
NoSnowATL
Member