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Tropical Hurricane Dorian

ForsythSnow said:
I doubt if it makes it north of the islands and heads north of the Gulf it would get any further north than the southern part of SC. No way it'll go north of that.
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Unless it gets significantly stronger or larger, I would lean to the southern end of guidance. That fast flow as it enters the Carribbean will jet it westward and keep it weaker if not kill it completely. If it survives it will be a problem.
 
Posted this in banter. I’ll leave this here for reference.
Ollie Williams said:
Typically during most cases the Euro does better overall. However because Europe doesn’t get many tropical systems being a lower priority, their verification isn’t as good for track/strength etc. Take Florence for Example went into lower SC close Verification time as an Outlier. The FV3 from what I recall did fairly well with Florence.
The Ukie has had many fails typically has a south bias not just for hurricanes, Any storm system. Not sure about other global models though. Would weigh the Euro and GFS equally “Early on”. The Hurricane models (HWRF, HMON) are typically biased to rapid strengthening. Take a look at Dorian recently Barry was also a victim of this. Hope that helps.
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Well good thing is the majority of tropical systems are not all doom and gloom for us. Plenty of time to watch it and there is always a better chance of little to no impact vs major.?
 
Ollie Williams said:
Posted this in banter. I’ll leave this here for reference.
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the HWRF can do really good(it was one of the top models last year or the year before) but the issue I'm having is earlier runs today had barely a TS. No consistency

as far as the Euro it has completely whiffed on this, at least the GFS formed it lol and yes the UKMET has a left bias, many runs had Barry going to Texas :rolleyes:
 
Brent said:
the HWRF can do really good(it was one of the top models last year or the year before) but the issue I'm having is earlier runs today had barely a TS. No consistency

as far as the Euro it has completely whiffed on this, at least the GFS formed it lol and yes the UKMET has a left bias, many runs had Barry going to Texas :rolleyes:
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They just can't handle small systems. We have about 3 days before we can see if the high gives a little......I think its going north and will RI. Hate to say it and give it substance.....
 
No changes at 11pm really, still a 75 mph peak and 30 mph in 5 days

The intensity forecast for this storm is a
challenge, since the numerical guidance depicts a wide range of
possibilities. The GFS and ECMWF global models dissipate Dorian
over the Caribbean in about 4 days, probably due to the hostile
environment associated with an upper-level low near Hispaniola.
Another unfavorable factor could be dry air that is also forecast by
the global models over the Caribbean. On the other hand, the
statistical/dynamical models DSHIPS and LGEM do not weaken the
system until it interacts with the land mass of Hispaniola. The
official forecast is close to the intensity model consensus, IVCN,
but it should be noted that there is greater than usual uncertainty
associated with this forecast.
 
Tropical Storm Dorian Advisory 7:

...DORIAN CONTINUES TO HEAD FOR THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...

LOCATION: 11.7N 55.3W
ABOUT 300 MI ESE OF BARBADOS
ABOUT 410 MI ESE OF ST. LUCIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS: 50 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT: W AT 14 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1003 MB

New Watches/Warnings:

The Barbados Meteorological Service has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for Dominica.

NHC Forecast Track/Intensity:

62E6296E-1E63-49DD-ABD8-87B5CCD85B5D.png
12H: 60 MPH
24H: 65 MPH
36H: 65 MPH
48H: 70 MPH
72H: 75 MPH
96H: 45 MPH...INLAND
120H: 30 MPH...OVER WATER

Key Messages:
091733CA-BD07-4DC0-B044-4BA871937FD9.png
 
Key takeaway from discussion:

"The track models are in good agreement that the cyclone will
gradually turn toward the west-northwest on Monday. A slight
weakness in the ridge near 70W longitude in a couple of days should
induce a gradual turn to the northwest later in the forecast period."
 
icon_mslp_pcpn_seus_60.png
 
Tropical Storm Dorian Advisory 7A:

...COMPACT DORIAN EXPECTED TO BRING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS TO
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS LATER TODAY...

LOCATION: 11.8N 55.8W
ABOUT 270 MI ESE OF BARBADOS
ABOUT 375 MI ESE OF ST. LUCIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS: 50 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT: W AT 14 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1003 MB
 
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