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Tropical Hurricane Dorian

Myfrotho704_ said:
Storm actually looks like it low level center is organizing decently fast right now, it’s a small center, a small storm, wouldn’t suprise me if it spun up quickly into a strong ts very quick, I’m here now because something actually formed lol
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Yep and has happened many times over this stretch of water by small systems.

These small systems are the ones that eventually slide into the Carribbean and have a much higher chance of US impact if they survive.
 
Cadi40 said:
Definitely too far out to forecast exact landfall location but does anyone think this could be a threat to the SE coast?
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I could absolutely see a Charleston landfall if the conditions and timing of strength play out, would hate to see it and if it does I hope to help evacuate everybody I possibly can, the locals can be very stubborn there. The city floods from a normal rainstorm lately, can’t imagine what a hurricane would do
 
Every storm is different but if the models continue to shift the way they are I could see a Hugo type track. Once again, way too early to say with confidence where landfall will be.
 
MichaelAndrews said:
I could absolutely see a Charleston landfall if the conditions and timing of strength play out, would hate to see it and if it does I hope to help evacuate everybody I possibly can, the locals can be very stubborn there. The city floods from a normal rainstorm lately, can’t imagine what a hurricane would do
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Yes. We flood here with a afternoon thunderstorm... And no one likes to evacuate. Also, we have some major tourist spots that are directly waterfront, like Isle of Palms (IOP), Sullivan's Island, Folly Beach, Kiawah Island, Seabrook Island, Edisto Island, and further south Beaufort and Hilton Head island (HHI).
 
Now I’m getting off topic but if it were like Hugo it’d bring hurricane force winds to some major inland population centers like Columbia, Greenville and Charlotte.
 
MichaelAndrews said:
I could absolutely see a Charleston landfall if the conditions and timing of strength play out, would hate to see it and if it does I hope to help evacuate everybody I possibly can, the locals can be very stubborn there. The city floods from a normal rainstorm lately, can’t imagine what a hurricane would do
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Cat1 9-11 feet at high tide
Cat 3 15-19 feet at high tide
Higher. Catastrophic

https://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/surge/CHS_mom1.png
https://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/surge/CHS_mom3.png
 
Cadi40 said:
Now I’m getting off topic but if it were like Hugo it’d bring hurricane force winds to some major inland population centers like Columbia, Greenville and Charlotte.
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There is a risk....but this storm has a lot of hurdles to jump before its even possible.
 
Henry2326 said:
Let's hope this massive rapid intensification doesn't happen........this model has some issues this early in the game.....
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However if it happens to RI, it would be the only model getting this correct. It's always a wait and see scenario with it. I think it just doesn't do well with unorganized messes. This storm I feel like it's one it'll be right on unless it starts looking bad the next 24 hours.
 
ForsythSnow said:
However if it happens to RI, it would be the only model getting this correct. It's always a wait and see scenario with it. I think it just doesn't do well with unorganized messes. This storm I feel like it's one it'll be right on unless it starts looking bad the next 24 hours.
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Its kind of interesting to me the NHC is so bullish when most of the models are weak also they mention RI now granted I'm on the fence too but they obviously dont think its impossible for the stronger solutions to verify(they were actually above the HWRF last run)
 
Brent said:
Its kind of interesting to me the NHC is so bullish when most of the models are weak also they mention RI now granted I'm on the fence too but they obviously dont think its impossible for the stronger solutions to verify(they were actually above the HWRF last run)
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I think its because the NHC sees the path that it can take with the high retraction. As well, the models have a fairly high pressure. Its possible that it will be stronger when it hits the pocket of shear and can get by it.
 
Navgem goes north too.

3eb3c45aacb6d3c280c15d6ceacbb505.jpg



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11pm advisory 80 mph peak before the Shredder

OUTLOOK VALID 29/0000Z 17.0N 66.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 30/0000Z 19.0N 70.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.024958_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png
 
NHC Tropical Storm Dorian Advisory 3:

...DORIAN MOVING STEADILY WESTWARD...
...WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE NECESSARY FOR PORTIONS OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES ON SUNDAY...

LOCATION: 10.9N 50.4W
ABOUT 635 MI ESE OF BARBADOS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS: 40 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT: W AT 14 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1008 MB

NHC Forcast track/Intensity:
3B5A369A-349C-4EC2-B7F6-3038B4408024.png

12H: 45 MPH
24H: 50 MPH
36H: 60 MPH
48H: 65 MPH
72H: 75 MPH
96H: 80 MPH
120H: 65 MPH...INLAND

Key Messages:
01A01386-5422-4153-844B-3D043382963A.png
 
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Dorian cant even last before the islands on the 0z gfs. Other models do keep it together and stronger
 
WELL NOT ON POINT BUT NOT REAL FAR OFF AT THIS CURRENT TIME WITH WHAT MODELS ARE SHOWING



Capture.JPG
 
The 0Z Euro is very weak coming into the Lesser Antilles. It is easily the weakest of the last 4 runs.
 
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