pcbjr
Member
-
Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!
Tropical Hurricane Dorian
- Thread starter RBR71
- Start date
Brent
Member
0z GFS keeps it weak into the Caribbean where it briefly dies and then it becomes a hurricane approaching the Yucatan and is near the Texas/Mexico border in 2 weeks
Last edited:
Brent
Member
I wouldn't be surprised if this beats 98L to Dorian honestly, still think the NHC is lowballing a bit while 98L is gonna be over land tomorrow. Also the small storms can form faster
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a small area of low
pressure located about 1050 miles east of the Windward Islands are
showing some signs of organization. Environmental conditions appear
conducive for additional development, and a tropical depression is
likely to form over the weekend or early next week while the low
moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. Conditions
appear less favorable for development when the low reaches the
Lesser Antilles and eastern Caribbean Sea by the middle of next
week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a small area of low
pressure located about 1050 miles east of the Windward Islands are
showing some signs of organization. Environmental conditions appear
conducive for additional development, and a tropical depression is
likely to form over the weekend or early next week while the low
moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. Conditions
appear less favorable for development when the low reaches the
Lesser Antilles and eastern Caribbean Sea by the middle of next
week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
Brent
Member
0z Euro is head on into the Shredder at 144
the remnants look to be headed towards Florida at 168
it should be noted again that the Euro hasn't even been showing a storm at all til now and has been very poor lately
the remnants look to be headed towards Florida at 168
it should be noted again that the Euro hasn't even been showing a storm at all til now and has been very poor lately
Last edited:
BufordWX
Member
Development chances have risen to 70/80 now.
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a small area of low
pressure located about 950 miles east of the Windward Islands are
showing some signs of organization. Environmental conditions appear
conducive for additional development, and a tropical depression is
likely to form during the next day or two while the low moves
westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. Conditions appear
less favorable for development when the low reaches the Lesser
Antilles and eastern Caribbean Sea by the middle of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a small area of low
pressure located about 950 miles east of the Windward Islands are
showing some signs of organization. Environmental conditions appear
conducive for additional development, and a tropical depression is
likely to form during the next day or two while the low moves
westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. Conditions appear
less favorable for development when the low reaches the Lesser
Antilles and eastern Caribbean Sea by the middle of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.
Henry2326
Member
06z GFS goes NW this round....
Henry2326
Member
Henry2326
Member
Henry2326
Member
BHS1975
Member
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Looks like a closed and exposed LLC on the eastern edge of the convection near 11N and 47.5 W
Tropical Depression Five
As always, will be interesting to see if this thing can somehow avoid or survive the graveyard
pcbjr
Member
Once it gets going and has a few runs behind it, this is very interesting to keep watch on ... https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2019/
Brent
Member
Thats a bullish forecast i guess we'll see
Shaggy
Member
The 12z gfs brings it into the islands as 1009mb but it should be stronger than that if the NHC is correct. Does the typical translation of a stronger system being pulled more poleward at least give the idea it could be further north and missing the greater antilles any weight? Guess we will see what future runs do........the ukmet has done well over the last couple seasons. Especially with Florence's track last year so its interesting to see what it shows.
Henry2326
Member
I agree if it's a stronger system, it goes further north and possibly intensifies. I think Phil stated this option earlier. We shall sea....
Henry2326
Member
Uh-huh.....possibly becoming an easy coast (Carolinas?) thang....
Looks like maybe it ticked north a bit?
No wonder the GFS weakens it, as the storm heads West, it shows the anticyclone atop td5 just collapsing, and it crashing into tutt, but literally the anticyclone atop TD5 just completely gets shredded apart, so the storm wouldn’t breath well
BHS1975
Member
Yeah there’s another TUTT right behind that one.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Models have been pretty chaotic with the long range pattern but there is enough there to believe that anything would have a chance to approach the southeast coast in about 8-12 days. That being said the bigger question becomes is there anything left to approach the SE coast. With the islands and a tutt in its path I'm not sold on this surviving the trip.
Sent from my SM-G975U using Tapatalk
Yeah that tutt really destroys any environment for the system. For this thing to stay alive it really needs to slow or gain some northward movement and possibly shoot the gap between the tutts north of the islands.
Sent from my SM-G975U using Tapatalk
Brent
Member
EPS tracks go towards Florida a few hurricane members but a lot of weak ones too definitely not a clear cut major threat atm
BufordWX
Member
Tropical Storm Dorian is official as of the 5 PM update.
DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO THE FOURTH TROPICAL STORM OF THE 2019 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON...
LOCATION: 10.7N 49.1W
ABOUT: 725 MI ESE OF BARBADOS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS: 40 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT: W AT 12 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE:1008 MB
DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO THE FOURTH TROPICAL STORM OF THE 2019 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON...
LOCATION: 10.7N 49.1W
ABOUT: 725 MI ESE OF BARBADOS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS: 40 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT: W AT 12 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE:1008 MB
Last edited:
pcbjr
Member
Like for the news, but not for the news, if you get the drift ...
... north of the islands is a bad omen on this one ... look at the atmosphere ... could ramp if that happens ...BufordWX
Member
NHC Intensity Forecast:
12H: 45 MPH
24H: 50 MPH
36H: 60 MPH
48H: 65 MPH
72H: 75 MPH
96H: 85 MPH
120H: 80 MPH...INLAND
Brent
Member
If this thing is really 80 mph over Hispanola lookout
However i have doubts
However i have doubts
pcbjr
Member
Doubts ... you and I ... but ... if 5 days from now the front that is modeled to come through stalls and retreats north, it's got a bulls eye for a place one of us calls home ... big if, but ...
Shaggy
Member
Like for the news, but not for the news, if you get the drift ...
The talk of possible RI is interesting. Would hate to be a forecaster for the islands right now. If this thing cranks up their not gonna have a ton of time.
Stronger sooner mean north of the islands? Could have ramifications down stream for intensity and threat to land.
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Stronger sooner would definitely pull it north of the islands. However if it gets very strong and maintains that it might just go OTS.
pcbjr
Member
BINGO! Great on spot post, FS!
But not too strong and a receding front ... 5 - 6 days from now ... could be ouch ... operative words are "BINGO" and "could" ...
Shaggy
Member
Sure of course that's possible. My concern is that all the models that are making up the consensus right now dont do much with it and weaken or kill it. That's certainly possible but then to hear the NHC talk about possibility of RI makes you guess if those models are seeing it for what it might really be in reality and how that effects track
BHS1975
Member
It’s gonna have to gain a ton of latitude to go north of the islands being only 10N now.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Storm actually looks like it low level center is organizing decently fast right now, it’s a small center, a small storm, wouldn’t suprise me if it spun up quickly into a strong ts very quick, I’m here now because something actually formed lol
Shaggy
Member
Yeah the lesser antilles wont be missed I was more referring to PR and hispaniola. If it misses the greater antilles then land interaction would be less of a problem.
ICON tries to take it North of the Antilles fwiw
Shaggy
Member
Yeah that's kind of my point. Over PR is alot dofferent than over Hispaniola.
Henry2326
Member
From Levi today:
Levi Cowan
@TropicalTidbits
So far, signs favor short-term intensification of #Dorian (currently east of the Caribbean). Microwave data today has shown convection wrapping around a small, tight center. This configuration can easily lead to strengthening if uninterrupted by shear or dry entrainment.
Levi Cowan
@TropicalTidbits
So far, signs favor short-term intensification of #Dorian (currently east of the Caribbean). Microwave data today has shown convection wrapping around a small, tight center. This configuration can easily lead to strengthening if uninterrupted by shear or dry entrainment.