• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Tropical Hurricane Dorian

metwannabe said:
The NAM stayed offshore, 06z GFS is slightly east and stays offshore, Dorian appears to be drifting n/nw, Grand Bahama getting southern eyewall now..... need to watch that trough and Atlantic ridge closely but atm I feel better about it never making LF, close but just offshore.
Click to expand...
00z HWRF darn close south of JAX, then tries at Charleston and success further north. 06z running now. JAX and beginning at Charleston through the end of the runs seem to be the pinch points throughout the models.
 
Henry2326 said:
00z HWRF darn close south of JAX, then tries at Charleston and success further north. 06z running now. JAX and beginning at Charleston through the end of the runs seem to be the pinch points throughout the models.
Click to expand...

Looks like its caving to the other models as usual.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Although modeling looks to have stopped westward shift for now, certainly couldn't stand too many more shifts like this



Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk
 
metwannabe said:
Although modeling looks to have stopped westward shift for now, certainly couldn't stand too many more shifts like this



Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

Difficult for me to believe we will get out of this one unscathed. Waiting for the boot to drop concerning some little piece of data that has a huge impact that we just don't know yet.
 
Another tick west by the 6z GFS.

Though looks like Euro ticker east from its 18z run.

FC8083E2-FB57-4601-BE94-2FADDFF66E3E.gif
 
HWRF on shore in SC and HMON in NC. RGEM wobbles very close to FL coast at points. It may just be nowcast for days.
 
Looking at how a few models have performed over past 48 hours. Looked at Euro/GFS/UK runs from 2 days for Dorians current position.

Quickly looked at the ICON/CMC/GFS-L and they weren't very good.


GFS north of Dorian. HWRF had similar position as GFS.

GFS 50-STATES USA Florida 850 hPa Wind 48.png

Euro south of Dorian:


9-km ECMWF USA Surface +3-Hourly Florida MSLP 48.png


UK looks spot on.

Screen Shot 2019-09-02 at 7.39.24 AM.png
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top