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Tropical Hurricane Dorian

F-5 said:
Haha....good point.

Have had TPBI loaded for several hours now and if anything the precip shield is expanding west, not contracting. Not yet anyway.

Consistent slightly south of due west motion for literally about twelve hours now.

Will that matter, TBD, but if I were on the Space Coast I wouldn't like it.

Anyone have any info on that oil tanker field on Grand Bahama? I'm sure they are built to withstand a hurricane, but this is on a level they may not have planned for. Either way, it's taking a pounding right now.

Also, at least on TPBI the moat separating the inner eyewall and the outer eyewall (as such that it is) has closed considerably in the past hour.
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I don't know if it will happen here, but land have interupted ERC's before. The outer wall may just end up tightening around the inner.

One thing I do notice is cloud tops cooling in the southern eyewall. The center is slowly sliding off the island to the south.
 
HR48 new euro is west of last nights 00z run. There is more ridging over NC and just off the Middle Atlantic coast. More ridging that is further north and nosing NW near Bermuda. Trof looks flatter over the Great Lakes as well.
 
Just of JAX at hour 72. It is a little west from last nights run. and about the same at hr96. I bet we see some interesting ENS members tonight.
 
BufordWX said:
Am I seeing things or did Dorian just stop moving?
Last few frames look like the eye hasn’t moved.
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Yes it has. You could see the extreme western edge of the precip shield receive some pushback a little over an hour ago. Now it looks like the eye of Dorian is feeling it as well
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
Yes it has. You could see the extreme western edge of the precip shield receive some pushback a little over an hour ago. Now it looks like the eye of Dorian is feeling it as well
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you were right Jimmy it has hit the brakes. Will be interesting to see what happens next. Good call.
 
Hurricane Dorian 3 AM update:

LOCATION: 26.6N 78.1W
ABOUT 40 MI E OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
ABOUT 125 MI E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS: 170 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT: W OR 270 DEGREES AT 2 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE: 916 MB
 
Could this be the stall we've been eagerly anticipating? If so, this could be very good news for the entire SE as this is early. However, because it is quite a bit earlier than model consensus had the stall, I'm wondering if this is a fakeout and that it will resume slow westerly movement. Hopefully not.

Also, cloud tops are warming, indicative of further weakening, which I assume would be largely due to upwelling and some due to land. Remember what Levi said about the HWRF. He thinks that it has been showing a motion more toward the NW than NNW after the slowdown and change in direction from W due to a lower steering level caused by weakening being assumed due to upwelling. Let's see what happens. Do we have the stall now that will then change to a NNW move offshore FL. Or does it threaten central/NE FL?
 
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GaWx said:
Could this be the stall we've been eagerly anticipating? If so, this could be very good news for the entire SE as this is early. However, because it is quite a bit earlier than model consensus had the stall, I'm wondering if this is a fakeout and that it will resume slow westerly movement. Hopefully not.

Also, cloud tops are warming, indicative of further weakening, which I assume would be largely due to upwelling and some due to land. Remember what Levi said about the HWRF. He think that it has been showing a motion more toward the NW than NNW after the slowdown and change in direction from W due to a lower steering level caused by weakening being assumed due to upwelling. Let's see what happens. Do we have the stall now that will then change to a NNW move offshore FL. Or does it threaten central/NE FL?
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If you look at the HRRR it shows Dorian picking up speed and tracking north.
 
More ridging and flatter trough on 6z NAM

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Spotlight Charleston....00z HRWF continues to put the eye very close in Charleston bay as a major. Timing faster and now better aligns with NHC chart. 9:00 pm Thursday and its low tide. Stronger and faster than 18z.
06z running.

hwrf_mslp_wind_05L_32.png
 
The NAM stayed offshore, 06z GFS is slightly east and stays offshore, Dorian appears to be drifting n/nw, Grand Bahama getting southern eyewall now..... need to watch that trough and Atlantic ridge closely but atm I feel better about it never making LF, close but just offshore.
 
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