Tropical Hurricane Dorian

[GeorgiaGirl]

Holy smokes...

 

[KyloG]

Now can add 12Z UKMET to list of runs EAST of respective earlier runs. So, ICON, GFS, Legacy, CMC, and UKMET all east of prior run. 5 out of 5 so far fwiw. But of course we’ll need to see the storm turn in a timely fashion for those to verify.
Anyway, PERHAPS the 6Z consensus will turn out to be the furthest west?? At least there’s a chance and this possibility shouldn’t be ignored.

Didn't we expect the furthest west models that were tracking up the spine of FL pen to correct east? I think we are probably looking at something that kisses the coast and than maybe tracks just inland over OBX. Though a complete whiff is probably just as likely.

 

[KyloG]

CMC at 84. like to post these so we can go back and verify how they did.

 

[pcbjr]

FWIW ...

 

[GaWx]

CMC at 84. like to post these so we can go back and verify how they did.

View attachment 22748

To clarify for those not following closely, this 12Z CMC is EAST of its 0Z there.

 

[Snowfan]

000
URNT15 KNHC 011628
AF302 2805A DORIAN HDOB 50 20190901
161830 2620N 07644W 6959 02947 9826 +081 +024 229104 106 098 015 00
161900 2621N 07645W 6974 02891 9788 +078 +025 228113 116 107 015 00
161930 2622N 07647W 6956 02868 9741 +077 +026 229121 125 115 025 03
162000 2623N 07648W 6973 02792 9693 +064 +026 231138 143 136 051 00
162030 2624N 07649W 6961 02744 9617 +067 +025 229148 154 154 058 00
162100 2625N 07649W 6956 02676 9514 +084 +026 230149 154 170 036 00
162130 2626N 07651W 6951 02599 9418 +097 +031 230124 147 171 016 03
162200 2627N 07652W 6974 02487 9292 +138 +034 233100 114 /// /// 03
162230 2628N 07653W 6970 02414 9169 +191 +035 229071 091 124 000 00
162300 2629N 07654W 6969 02371 9094 +230 +038 234032 058 077 005 00
162330 2630N 07656W 6970 02358 9078 +236 +042 018004 017 038 010 03
162400 2632N 07657W 6978 02368 9106 +219 +048 039030 042 038 007 03
162430 2633N 07658W 6961 02422 9177 +176 +051 042059 063 066 004 00
162500 2634N 07659W 6968 02436 9207 +171 +054 047067 070 076 005 00
162530 2636N 07659W 6976 02459 9245 +164 +057 056084 095 123 003 03
162600 2637N 07659W 6961 02519 9309 +140 +060 067106 114 /// /// 03
162630 2638N 07659W 6950 02592 9403 +108 +063 074136 146 172 003 03
162700 2639N 07659W 6994 02606 9478 +094 +065 071147 155 177 032 00
162730 2640N 07659W 6962 02694 9548 +084 +065 074158 161 168 043 00
162800 2641N 07659W 6970 02739 9626 +067 +062 075152 157 146 052 00
$$
;

Pressure is down to 908 mb.[/QUOTE]

 

[DopplerWx]

907 extrap. Ridiculous

 

[YetAnotherRDUGuy]

With Dorian becoming much stronger, how much of an impact (if any) does this have on the eventual track?

In other words, would there by any difference trackwise in this scenario between a strong cat 4 like it was yesterday, and the strong cat 5 storm it is now? Does a stronger storm have more of an effect on steering currents?

 

[GaWx]

FWIW ...

View attachment 22749View attachment 22750

Thanks for the post. That map is as of 900Z or 5AM EDT. Hopefully this will change quickly. That’s what’s forecasted and so it certainly could change quickly enough to turn it tomorrow. These things are constantly changing. We’ll see.

 

[Henry2326]

This isn't good if you want a miss. Look at the trough over the southern Canada...allows Dorian to move N before getting pushed NE.

View attachment 22744


12 hours later...look at the atlantic ridge flex.

View attachment 22745

Its initializing at 950.....seems to me that could have impact to changes...

With Dorian becoming much stronger, how much of an impact (if any) does this have on the eventual track?

In other words, would there by any difference trackwise in this scenario between a strong cat 4 like it was yesterday, and the strong cat 5 storm it is now? Does a stronger storm have more of an effect on steering currents?

IMO... It will do what it wants...

 

[pcbjr]

Thanks for the post. That map is as of 900Z or 5AM EDT. Hopefully this will change quickly. That’s what’s forecasted and so it certainly could change quickly enough to turn it tomorrow. We’ll see.

It's a FWIW and the most current thing I have; if I see one closer in time, it'll be up here pronto! Maybe Chris @deltadog03 has something more current?

 

[Henry2326]

CMC at 84. like to post these so we can go back and verify how they did.

View attachment 22748

It's not pretty....full blown coast rider

 

[snowlover91]

161kts flight level and 177kts SFMR unflagged in northern eyewall this pass.

 

[ForsythSnow]

161kts flight level and 177kts SFMR unflagged in northern eyewall this pass.

A 10% reduction is still 185 mph too.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Let’s see what the HMON does, it shows a bounce around the island, which pushes it south, this is very possible aswell

 

[POWERSTROKE]

Hurricane conditions and 5+ inches of rain are very possible.

I'm here at Myrtle Beach and ocean is pretty rough already. May not be anything due to hurricane but definitely rougher than normal

 

[Henry2326]

161kts flight level and 177kts SFMR unflagged in northern eyewall this pass.

203 mph.....whatttt?

 

[Ollie Williams]

CMC has a very westward precipitation shield.

 

[ForsythSnow]

203 mph.....whatttt?

Remember SFMR is overdone, that's why I mentioned the 10% reduction to go by.

 

[Henry2326]

Let’s see what the HMON does, it shows a bounce around the island, which pushes it south, this is very possible aswell View attachment 22751

At least it's starting out at 939.....probably too high also