Tropical Hurricane Dorian

[NoSnowATL]

my take on things right now looking at the WV imagery.

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GAWX is gonna fight you haha.. thanks everyone for the analysis the past what feels like 2 weeks. OTS or not he/she is amazing.


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[Myfrotho704_]

Still tanking

 

[GaWx]

I don’t know if anyone posted this, but the 6Z Euro ensemble mean was closer to the SE coast than at least the prior 3 runs with more runs inland FL-NC.

 

[GaWx]

12Z GFS is also a little bit EAST of its 6Z. So, ICON and GFS east of 6Z off of FL.

 

[deltadog03]

I don’t know if anyone posted this, but the 6Z Euro ensemble mean was closer to the SE coast than at least the prior 3 runs with more runs inland FL-NC.

I thought you did? maybe that was just about the OP run...Either way, if this makes landfall or not anywhere in the SE, IMO all of the models are having a hard time with the forward speed in the short term.

 

[jackendrickwx]

Every model is initializing WAY too high pressure wise. Interesting to see how that will have skewed the models (if at all) once this is all said and done

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

I don’t know if anyone posted this, but the 6Z Euro ensemble mean was closer to the SE coast than at least the prior 3 runs with more runs inland FL-NC.

Pic

 

[Downeastnc]

Its only the ICON but seems like its more on board with the EURO/GFS short term so its a bit more concerning that it has this now..

 

[Henry2326]

Every model is initializing WAY too high pressure wise. Interesting to see how that will have skewed the models (if at all) once this is all said and done

Well it certainly won't stop on a dime....

 

[GeorgiaGirl]

12z GFS looks a hair east compared to 6z but it's still too close for comfort and in the range of if this ends up even just 25 MPH to the west, the east coast of Florida is going to get some hurricane conditions.

 

[Downeastnc]

Every model is initializing WAY too high pressure wise. Interesting to see how that will have skewed the models (if at all) once this is all said and done

Globals do not have the resolution to get the pressure right they cant really do 50mb drops over 20 miles like you see in canes.... and them being off does not really effect them.....

 

[Ollie Williams]

GFS turning further NW than 06z

 

[GeorgiaGirl]

Shift this even just 25-50 MPH to the west and you have big problems, plus it's in the range of error to boot too:

 

[Snowflowxxl]

GFS Legacy is going to be wide right

 

[swbamaweatherguy]

Friend just texted and said lastest pass showed 909mb. Pressure still falling. Can anyone verify this????


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[Myfrotho704_]

If you look at a 24-36 hour loop, storm has definitely grown in size

 

[GaWx]

GFS Legacy is going to be wide right

Maybe, just maybe any west trend in consensus will have ended with 6Z runs? So, we have 12Z ICON, GFS, and Legacy at least a hair EAST of respective 6Z runs fwiw.

 

[Snowfan]

Friend just texted and said lastest pass showed 909mb. Pressure still falling. Can anyone verify this????


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It's true.

 

[NoSnowATL]

Slight wobble south in the last 2 frames.


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[KyloG]

This isn't good if you want a miss. Look at the trough over the southern Canada...allows Dorian to move N before getting pushed NE.




12 hours later...look at the atlantic ridge flex.