Difference, it came from the south at a different angle. It started the forward north motion at a different angle. And at Jax, it took a jog to the east that moved it off the coast. Charleston expected a direct hit until it moved at Jax.
Colossal....maybe it works out....but the risk are crazy....
I would agree with you. The timing on the models has been awful the entire storm.
Good and bad I think. The good news is, few EWRC and less wind field expansion.... good IF it does not hit Fl, more compact less wind impact, but obviously if this beast doesn't turn then that's the bad news of it
agreed....its trying..lol to me the biggest error with the euro right now is timing. even in the short term with it showing a general W direction its still off
I am taking a guess at this, but I think that the eyewall thickness is what's holding it together and preventing an ERC entirely. Storms that have constant or even occasional ERCs have thinner eyewalls. Every time it might try to make a new one, it probably gets absorbed into the current one, or falls apart into a band. ERCs are still unpredictable, so there could even be the chance we don't see one again.
Kind of my point I just made about the fewer EWRC, more compact wind field..... same for the rain shield (not that EWRC have anything to do with that but the compact part). Anyway as it moves north it will begin weaken due to shear, trough interaction, etc but that should also start to cause the wind field to expand some and I think goo possibility of precip shield expanding inland. That's just how we roll up here, TC + trough = flooding rains...
Hypothetical, but what if we had the center further west near JAX at that frame with the same idea? What would that look like?
wow!
