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Pattern Hotober

Ollie Williams said:
FWIW Today's winter ensemble member highlights
06z 10/11
Nice ensemble member into texas #19 @Brent does this make it to your backyard?
1572156000-ohCxykmevkg.png

18z 10/11 I believe this is the first member to make it into GA/AL that I know of at least outside of the much higher elevations #8
1572156000-w1JYtPDLo1Y.png
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You know the saying. Snowpack north and west sets us up!
 
Ollie Williams said:
FWIW Today's winter ensemble member highlights
06z 10/11
Nice ensemble member into texas #19 @Brent does this make it to your backyard?
1572156000-ohCxykmevkg.png

18z 10/11 I believe this is the first member to make it into GA/AL that I know of at least outside of the much higher elevations #8
1572156000-w1JYtPDLo1Y.png
Click to expand...

Fake news


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Its currently 76 at midnight ladies and gents.... Awaiting this glorious Jesus front that supposedly will knock us down to 53 by sunrise. Good luck!

Edit: plateau microclimates NWS, plateau microclimates....
 
SETNwx said:
Its currently 76 at midnight ladies and gents.... Awaiting this glorious Jesus front that supposedly will knock us down to 53 by sunrise. Good luck!

Edit: plateau microclimates NWS, plateau microclimates....
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it was insane here... went from 90 to 50s real quick

45 degrees now and making a run for 30s
 
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Euro looks good on the precip side
Wouldn't be surprised to see some upper 30s in the typically cold spots in central nc Friday morning with widespread 40-45.
edc800d6f67bdd21d905aed87ed51126.jpg




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Fountainguy97 said:
Not sure I’ve ever seen the spine of the Appalachian mountains as the warmest place in the US.
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It usually is warm , before the big cold push, the cold shallow air takes time to get over the mountains, then once the peaks are covered, it still takes along time to get east of the mountains
 
Hoping we don't make it up to 80 in Burlington this afternoon, NWS has the triad at 83 today, although, I have noticed that there has been much more cloud cover to verify across NC.
9:15 satellite image
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HRRR 9:00 initialization which makes it to 82
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The NWS does actually mention this in their forecast discussion,

"With the mid-morning update, made some minimal changes to the hourly
temperatures, but also bumped up cloud cover with pretty widespread
cloud cover moving in from the west."

However, they are not too encouraged that this will make any difference in our temperatures,

"A band of mid and high clouds within the mid-upr ridge axis will
move across cntl NC today, but with partial sunshine that should
contribute to warm sector warming into 80-85 degree in most areas."

Even though this is being very optimistic, this is something that I just want to point out seeing in now-casting. If this forecast were to bust, I would think it would do so on the low side more-so than on the high side.
Edit: At least Orange County/Hillsboro west, RDU up to 77 GSO at 64
 
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ForsythSnow said:
Most likely is. It's probably because of the arctic being dumped on the upper US like it's mid-December. You just can't believe this stuff.
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That’s like a 1 in 70 pattern, in winter, AK ridging off the charts, PV lobes in Canada moving down like it’s the middle of winter, I don’t care if it’s 300+ hours out that’s truly embarrassing lol
 
That’s more like it!??
Myfrotho704_ said:
That’s like a 1 in 70 pattern, in winter, AK ridging off the charts, PV lobes in Canada moving down like it’s the middle of winter, I don’t care if it’s 300+ hours out that’s truly embarrassing lol
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they say winter patterns show their hands in October! Hmmmmmmm....☃️?
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
That’s like a 1 in 70 pattern, in winter, AK ridging off the charts, PV lobes in Canada moving down like it’s the middle of winter, I don’t care if it’s 300+ hours out that’s truly embarrassing lol
Click to expand...
Yeah I'd love to see how low the verification scores get if this keeps up all winter. They'll probably be around 70 to 50 percent.
 
All you need to know about the new GFS is for a week straight ending just a few days ago we were going to have a front pushing through today that was going to give us all high 60s to mid 70s for highs and 40s for lows tonight. By us, I mean the southeast, not the south central states. Instead we are all pushing, or well into the 80s with no rain thus far. Until its raining tomorrow or Tuesday, I'm not holding my breath, hell I don't even believe any of the frontal passages next week.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
That’s like a 1 in 70 pattern, in winter, AK ridging off the charts, PV lobes in Canada moving down like it’s the middle of winter, I don’t care if it’s 300+ hours out that’s truly embarrassing lol
Click to expand...
Its likely too cold but honestly the idea of getting cool to cold the week of Halloween has some merit. Still at 10+ days out things can change but I like where we are going and the potential to squeeze the pv a bit into canada and get a ridge in the NE pacific

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