BlueRidgeFolklore
Member
Speak for yourself, South of 85er!
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Pattern Hotober
- Thread starter NorthDFWwx
- Start date
Speak for yourself, South of 85er!
Looking more and more like we might actually have a sustained period of below normal during the week of Halloween into the first week of November. Hard to get too excited though given the tendency for models to really flex the ridge in the west then flatten is as we approach real time. I don't think it's far fetched to believe November ends up below normal as well.
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I got excited when I saw this. Until I looked at the day up top and realized that still has 5 days to go poof!
Well hello there
Need it suppressed at this point! It’s going NW, and going to be a MA special!Well hello there
GFS what.
EDIT: actually a bit of agreement here on the CMC
EDIT: actually a bit of agreement here on the CMC
NoSnowATL
Member
Doesn't scream CAD to me? Doesn't look like the right areas. Colder to the SE?
It's a hybrid cad type event with the residual cool dry air mass at the surface and the warm moist air mass going over top
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12z gfs was pretty unenthusiastic about anything getting going so you get this big change. Keep in mind the euro and eps are farther NW than most other modeling. If they were to be right the residual cool air mass would be eaten away and only left trapped in the foothills while the rest of us are in the soup
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GeorgiaGirl
Member
Worth mentioning a second time: that rain chance on the weekend that has been popping up actually originates from the tropics and it's that "X" over the Yucatan. So, we're at the mercy of if whether that disturbance organizes or not and where it goes.
I'd lean towards 30-50% rain chances with highs near 70. Until we get some clarity on what's going on in the gulf its hard to go with the wet cool gfs, or a warmer but wet idea with a low to our west, or a dry scenario with a low well to our southeast
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Chances of a tropical storm from that are increasing per model consensus tendencies today. If so, some areas would very likely get several inches of rain within a pretty short period of time. Even if no tropical storm, just having the plentiful tropical moisture should still allow for that though the heavier totals would probably be more spread out.
Well today by all accounts a bust. I recieved 0.18in of rain today, which is funny considering I recieved 0.40 Saturday night into Sunday night.
I'm an idiot. I was looking at the 12z run line what the hell is going on
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GeorgiaGirl
Member
It's actually been raining fairly steadily for maybe close to 40 minutes. Nothing hard but a steady rain. Maybe 1-2 more hours of it. Better than nothing. Maybe can add that to the Sunday rain, then a possible tropical system, and we'll have put a dent into it being dry. The grass already looked better from Sunday.
Golf7575
Member