Misc Historic solar cycle minimum coming

[GaWx]

I created this thread to continue the discussions we were having at Talkwx about the quiet sun (sunspotwise) that will only get quieter over the next few years. We may very well be headed for the quietest cycle minimum since the Dalton Minimum cycles of ~200 years ago. I don't expect the absolute bottom of this minimum to be at least until early 2020. It actually may not bottom til 2021 and at the extreme not til 2022. If not til 2021-2, it would likely be even that much quieter.

As far as the expected effect on global temperatures, it would have a small direct cooling effect. The question is whether or not it would likely have a larger overall effect due to indirect means. Many say no but some say maybe due to supposed indirect effects from increased cosmic rays, which supposedly would increase cooling cloudcover due to there being more nuclei for cloud formation.

So far, there has been no appreciable cooling as a result of the sun. Then again, there could very well be a lag The good news is that the minimum is coming soon and we can just follow along and see what actually happens.

 

[GaWx]

If the sun remains blank today, it would become the 9th day in a row of no sunspots. That would make the current streak the longest to date of the current downturn.

 

[GaWx]

Today has a good chance of making it 12 days in a row of spotlessness! That's quite impressive when one considers that the next cycle minimum is likely 3-4 years away!

 

[ForsythSnow]

Today has a good chance of making it 12 days in a row of spotlessness! That's quite impressive when one considers that the next cycle minimum is likely 3-4 years away!

Quite interesting that we are this low this early, considering that we are running below predicted.

 

[GaWx]

Quite interesting that we are this low this early, considering that we are running below predicted.

Looking at the chart above, it looks to me like we're in a slightly longer than a 12 rather than the longterm avg 11 year cycle. Note how far apart are the tops of these last 2 cycles and where the steady down trends started: ~1/1/2002 & ~3/1/2014 or 12 yrs, 2 mos apart. Keeping that in mind and noting per the chart that this last min was ~1/1/2009 tells me that the upcoming min may very well not be til at least ~3/1/2021 or 4 years from now! Being that we're already at a 13+ day spotless streak (still blank per pic I just saw) and projecting ahead 4 years, all I can say is "wow" at how quiet this next min is liable to be. I mean Daltonlike quiet. What do I mean by Daltonlike? A full year or more of no spots! Furthermore, longer cycles tend to be cycles that are getting quieter. Dalton's were longer than 12 yrs. There hasn't even been a 12+ year long cycle since cycle 9 of the 1840's-50's!

Look at how quiet was 2015 vs 2003, 2016 vs 2004, and early 2017 vs early 2005. Looking back 12 years ago today, the longest spotless streak had been only 2 days and that was the case all of the way through Sep '05! There wasn't an 8 day til Jan '06 and a 10 day til Mar '07! That's just 10 years back in a 12+ year cycle! The current downturn is 1.5+ years ahead of the previous cycle, which itself was the weakest in nearly 100 years!

Looking back 4 years prior to the quietest Dalton min of 1.5 years of no spots centered on 1810, 4 years before that in 1806 wasn't nearly as quiet as late 2016-early 2017! The last 12 mos have averaged 35. The pre-1810 min 12 month average didn't get down to 35 until 3 hrs, 3 mos before that extreme min.

In summary, all indicators are suggesting we're headed toward a deep cycle min that quite possibly will rival the historically deep min of the Dalton 1810 min!

 

[GaWx]

We're up to 15 straight spotless days and still counting!

Edit: the streak stopped at a most impressive 15 days, which is very strongly suggestive of a Dalton-like cycle deep minimum upcoming in 3-4 years.

 

[GaWx]

Just to show how unpredictable the sun can be, it just had its highest daily flux in nearly 6 months! This follows by just two weeks the very
impressive (for so early) 15 day spotless streak.

 

[GaWx]

After having its highest daily flux since all the way back in July, the flux has plunged back almost all of the way back to the lows we just had in middle March! Also, it may go spotless tomorrow as one last spot group rotates off the disk after the other remaining spot dissipated. If this occurs, there will be a shot at another multi-day spotless streak though I'm not looking for another 15 day spotless streak just yet. That and much longer will come in time with higher and higher frequency.

https://sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov/data/realtime/hmi_igr/1024/latest.html

 

[ForsythSnow]

The sun is blank again. I wonder how long it will last, and if there will be another uptick in sunspots suddenly.

 

[GaWx]

The sun is blank again. I wonder how long it will last, and if there will be another uptick in sunspots suddenly.

This spotless streak ended at just one day by one that rotated onto the left edge.

 

[GaWx]

"Already 58 New 2017 Papers Link Solar Activity To Climate Changes"
- See more at:

http://notrickszone.com/2017/04/27/...solar-activity/#sthash.YZ19lOVl.musZIh9D.dpuf

I'm maintaining an open mind to the possibility that the sun has been a major factor in climate change. Unfortunately, politics on BOTH sides muddy up the waters. For example, the website that put out this article, "Notrickszone", has as its head (Pierre Gosselin) someone who has been clearly biased against the idea of AGW influenced GW. I wish this same article were written by a nonpartisan group. Then it would have much more weight in my eyes. Nevertheless, I still think we should follow this expected upcoming grand solar minimum very closely to see how much cooling it will eventually bring to the globe. I still can't eliminate the possibility that longer term solar cycles (not just single cycles) have been a major factor in climate cycles because of the idea that 1950-2000 possibly had the strongest solar output of any 50 year period of the last 2000+ years thus POSSIBLY meaning that a significant portion of GW over the last 35 years has been due to the warmer sun. Of course, this possibility would require that there is a lag period being that the sun has been much quieter over the last 10 years or so.

 

[pcbjr]

"Already 58 New 2017 Papers Link Solar Activity To Climate Changes"
- See more at:

http://notrickszone.com/2017/04/27/...solar-activity/#sthash.YZ19lOVl.musZIh9D.dpuf

I'm maintaining an open mind to the possibility that the sun has been a major factor in climate change. Unfortunately, politics on BOTH sides muddy up the waters. For example, the website that put out this article, "Notrickszone", has as its head (Pierre Gosselin) someone who has been clearly biased against the idea of AGW influenced GW. I wish this same article were written by a nonpartisan group. Then it would have much more weight in my eyes. Nevertheless, I still think we should follow this expected upcoming grand solar minimum very closely to see how much cooling it will eventually bring to the globe. I still can't eliminate the possibility that longer term solar cycles (not just single cycles) have been a major factor in climate cycles because of the idea that 1950-2000 possibly had the strongest solar output of any 50 year period of the last 2000+ years thus POSSIBLY meaning that a significant portion of GW over the last 35 years has been due to the warmer sun. Of course, this possibility would require that there is a lag period being that the sun has been much quieter over the last 10 years or so.

Assuming that the sun and solar activity is the "culprit" or a major player (not a debate I'm inviting btw) - seems to me that the oceans have or would have been absorbing a lot of solar heat for decades and it'll take time for that heat to release and normalize - just think of September when it's way past June 20-21 and yet the Atl and Gulf are releasing the most heat and we're in the midst of the peak of 'Cane season. Don't have a clue if this is at all valid as an analogy or otherwise - just a thought that came to mind.

Like the posts, btw, Larry! Keep 'em coming!

Phil in hot and humid Hogtown

 

[GaWx]

Assuming that the sun and solar activity is the "culprit" or a major player (not a debate I'm inviting btw) - seems to me that the oceans have or would have been absorbing a lot of solar heat for decades and it'll take time for that heat to release and normalize - just think of September when it's way past June 20-21 and yet the Atl and Gulf are releasing the most heat and we're in the midst of the peak of 'Cane season. Don't have a clue if this is at all valid as an analogy or otherwise - just a thought that came to mind.

Like the posts, btw, Larry! Keep 'em coming!

Phil in hot and humid Hogtown

Thank you! I think you are giving an excellent analogy and one that isn't too dissimilar to analogies I've mentioned elsewhere:
1) Although ~6/21 is the summer solstice, the warmest daily normals for most in the temperate latitudes aren't at least til a month or so later.
2) Even though the sun is highest in the sky around noon standard time, the warmest on sunny days without a frontal passage is usually not for several hours later.

 

[pcbjr]

Thank you! I think you are giving an excellent analogy and one that isn't too dissimilar to analogies I've mentioned elsewhere:
1) Although ~6/21 is the summer solstice, the warmest daily normals for most in the temperate latitudes aren't at least til a month or so later.
2) Even though the sun is highest in the sky around noon standard time, the warmest on sunny days without a frontal passage is usually not for several hours later.

I say what I think - if that's not obvious - but it's always measured!!!!
Thanks, Man!
Best!
Phil

 

[GaWx]

For the first time in 3 weeks, there may be a spotless day coming up (as early as today). In addition, the backside is very quiet meaning there is a chance for another multiple day period of spotlesness. These longer spotless periods will only get more frequent and longer as we move ahead through the next several years toward an anticipated grand minimum.

 

[GaWx]

There was a spotless day yesterday and there's very likely another one today. We could be in store for another long spotless streak (perhaps 7+ days based on Stereo pics).

Meanwhile, the official rounded daily flux these last 2 days has gotten down to below 69 for the first time this cycle. That is a pretty big milestone as far as a getting quieter sun is concerned. The last day under 69 was way back on 6/19/2010, which was about 1.5 years after the prior cycle minimum. Looking at when the prior cycle first had a two day sub 69 daily flux durin its declining stage, it wasn't til 4/12-13/2007 or just over 10 years ago. Considering we appear to be in an extra long cycle of at least ~12 years, this is still another measure of how far ahead the current cycle is vs the prior cycle of a weakening sun..perhaps as much as 2 years! Based on these measures and based on the last cycle minimum being the weakest in ~100 years, all indications remain that we're headed for a heck of a cycle minimum within the next few years which could easily rival the weakest cycle minimum of the Dalton Grand Minimum of 200 year ago.

 

[pcbjr]

There was a spotless day yesterday and there's very likely another one today. We could be in store for another long spotless streak (perhaps 7+ days based on Stereo pics).

Meanwhile, the official rounded daily flux these last 2 days has gotten down to below 69 for the first time this cycle. That is a pretty big milestone as far as a getting quieter sun is concerned. The last day under 69 was way back on 6/19/2010, which was about 1.5 years after the prior cycle minimum. Looking at when the prior cycle first had a two day sub 69 daily flux durin its declining stage, it wasn't til 4/12-13/2007 or just over 10 years ago. Considering we appear to be in an extra long cycle of at least ~12 years, this is still another measure of how far ahead the current cycle is vs the prior cycle of a weakening sun..perhaps as much as 2 years! Based on these measures and based on the last cycle minimum being the weakest in ~100 years, all indications remain that we're headed for a heck of a cycle minimum within the next few years which could easily rival the weakest cycle minimum of the Dalton Grand Minimum of 200 year ago.

bring on cool and rain ...

 

[ForsythSnow]

There was a spotless day yesterday and there's very likely another one today. We could be in store for another long spotless streak (perhaps 7+ days based on Stereo pics).

Meanwhile, the official rounded daily flux these last 2 days has gotten down to below 69 for the first time this cycle. That is a pretty big milestone as far as a getting quieter sun is concerned. The last day under 69 was way back on 6/19/2010, which was about 1.5 years after the prior cycle minimum. Looking at when the prior cycle first had a two day sub 69 daily flux durin its declining stage, it wasn't til 4/12-13/2007 or just over 10 years ago. Considering we appear to be in an extra long cycle of at least ~12 years, this is still another measure of how far ahead the current cycle is vs the prior cycle of a weakening sun..perhaps as much as 2 years! Based on these measures and based on the last cycle minimum being the weakest in ~100 years, all indications remain that we're headed for a heck of a cycle minimum within the next few years which could easily rival the weakest cycle minimum of the Dalton Grand Minimum of 200 year ago.

Would be interesting to see if we can get most of a year without sunspots in a few years. Thanks for the updates!

 

[GaWx]

Would be interesting to see if we can get most of a year without sunspots in a few years. Thanks for the updates!

YW. Based on the current trends in the general direction of a very weak Dalton Minimum type of cycle minimum, I think the odds of that are high for one year and quite possibly for two years! Even a 3rd year could be on the very weak side. We'll see.

Based on current trends and comparing them to past cycles, my guess as of now is that over half of 2018 days will be spotless and both 2019 and 2020 will have no more than very few days with spots. Assuming a 12+ year cycle, 2021 could easily also have very few spots. Even a year with zero spots is not out of the question!

 

[pcbjr]

YW. Based on the current trends in the general direction of a very weak Dalton Minimum type of cycle minimum, I think the odds of that are high for one year and quite possibly for two years! Even a 3rd year could be on the very weak side. We'll see.

Based on current trends and comparing them to past cycles, my guess as of now is that over half of 2018 days will be spotless and both 2019 and 2020 will have no more than very few days with spots. Assuming a 12+ year cycle, 2021 could easily also have very few spots. Even a year with zero spots is not out of the question!

Larry,
I'm sure you've probably posted it or alluded to it, but I'm not finding ... and I'm awfully tight for time (so any direction pointing is most appreciated!).
Low to no spots equals what (generally) for weather? I guess my focus would be winter and summer in particular.
Can you direct me to some data or something you've posted?
Thanks!
Phil