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Severe Harvey Severe Weather Threat (Aug 31 - Sep 1)

Need a little more instability but the wind profile is stout
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My local forecast on TWC actually says for tomorrow: Thunderstorms, with tornadoes possible!
Have never seen that wording used!:(
 
Got a wedge here in northern georgia so I'm pretty sure we are safe.
 
DustinWX said:
Got a wedge here in northern georgia so I'm pretty sure we are safe.
Click to expand...
Isn't that what is supposed to be causing the tornado threat with Harvey anyway due to opposing winds? If not, then we could be fine, but seeing slight risk for today and numerous models showing decent CAPE and tornado possibilities is not that good.
 
ForsythSnow said:
Isn't that what is supposed to be causing the tornado threat with Harvey anyway due to opposing winds? If not, then we could be fine, but seeing slight risk for today and numerous models showing decent CAPE and tornado possibilities is not that good.
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I was looking at the NAM, and it looks like we have decent values on the Supercell composite indexs, but our CAPE is lacking. Not really sure how the dynamics of a tropical system would interact with CAD?
 
RAH said this morning we'll probably get cooler air and rain here to stabilize things tomorrow, and the bullseye should be towards Fayeteville and southeast of here, but it could shift either way. Have to still pay attention for sure.

Here's part of their discussion this morning.

The current models are stronger with
the push of cooler, more stable, rain cooled air deep into the
northern and even central parts of NC. Therefore the slight risk
or the highest potential for severe weather has been shifted just to
the south of the Triad and Triangle areas, with areas from Albemarle
to Fayetteville expected in the bulls eye. This could very well
shift 50 miles either way, so stay tuned to later forecasts.


Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
444 AM EDT Thu Aug 31 2017

NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-010845-
Person-Granville-Vance-Warren-Halifax-Forsyth-Guilford-Alamance-
Orange-Durham-Franklin-Nash-Edgecombe-Davidson-Randolph-Chatham-Wake-
Johnston-Wilson-Stanly-Montgomery-Moore-Lee-Harnett-Wayne-Anson-
Richmond-Scotland-Hoke-Cumberland-Sampson-
444 AM EDT Thu Aug 31 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

A strong west to east oriented frontal zone will be located over
northern North Carolina Friday morning. This front is expected to
move southward during the day before stalling over the Southern
Piedmont and Sandhills. Severe thunderstorms will be possible along
and south of the front Friday afternoon and evening. Isolated
tornadoes and damaging wind gusts will be the primary threats.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed Friday afternoon and
evening.

$$

Badgett
 
No sign of the sun yet here in Dallas,GA to fuel these storms.. I'm starting to wonder if the wedge will win out here once again..
 
Sun out here at my office in Homewood AL. Seeing several warning in MS in the band approaching the AL boarder.
 
Tornado Watch for AL:

TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 476
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1115 AM CDT THU AUG 31 2017

TORNADO WATCH 476 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CDT FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

ALC007-009-021-033-043-047-057-059-063-065-073-075-077-079-083-
091-093-103-105-107-117-119-125-127-133-010100-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0476.170831T1615Z-170901T0100Z/

AL
. ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BIBB BLOUNT CHILTON
COLBERT CULLMAN DALLAS
FAYETTE FRANKLIN GREENE
HALE JEFFERSON LAMAR
LAUDERDALE LAWRENCE LIMESTONE
MARENGO MARION MORGAN
PERRY PICKENS SHELBY
SUMTER TUSCALOOSA WALKER
WINSTON
 
MS wants to play too....

TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 476
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1115 AM CDT THU AUG 31 2017

TORNADO WATCH 476 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CDT FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

MSC003-009-013-017-025-033-057-071-081-087-093-095-103-105-107-
115-117-137-139-141-145-161-010100-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0476.170831T1615Z-170901T0100Z/

MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ALCORN BENTON CALHOUN
CHICKASAW CLAY DESOTO
ITAWAMBA LAFAYETTE LEE
LOWNDES MARSHALL MONROE
NOXUBEE OKTIBBEHA PANOLA
PONTOTOC PRENTISS TATE
TIPPAH TISHOMINGO UNION
YALOBUSHA
 
TN, too...

TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 476
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1115 AM CDT THU AUG 31 2017

TORNADO WATCH 476 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CDT FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

TNC023-039-047-069-071-075-077-109-113-157-010100-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0476.170831T1615Z-170901T0100Z/

TN
. TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

CHESTER DECATUR FAYETTE
HARDEMAN HARDIN HAYWOOD
HENDERSON MADISON MCNAIRY
SHELBY
 
Wow that Reform elementary school webcam shot on 33/40 was crazy. Tornado on the ground. Luckily the school dodged a major bullet but man was it close
 
Homes damaged and people trapped in Reform and Palmetto. Folks in Fayette need to seek shelter immediately. Circulation is wrapping back up
 
4 Strong Couplets Fayette, Gordo, Detroit and Near Kennedy AL at this time... These look almost spring like vs typical Tropical spin ups
 
Tomorrow could be a pretty wild day across NC and northern Sc.

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SD said:
Tomorrow could be a pretty wild day across NC and northern Sc.

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Agree. Where the wedge front sets up will decide this and I'm betting it's farther south than models show. The GSP metro through Charlote and on to Raleigh is where I'm thing the worst will be. Basically 30-50 miles north and south of I-85 in SC and NC.
 
JHS said:
Agree. Where the wedge front sets up will decide this and I'm betting it's farther south than models show. The GSP metro through Charlote and on to Raleigh is where I'm thing the worst will be. Basically 30-50 miles north and south of I-85 in SC and NC.
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It'll be interesting to watch the evolution. The rain tonight and any morning convection should aid in getting the front south but it's bumping up against a stout south flow. Personally I think the wedge from sets up just north of 74 in southern NC.

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SD said:
It'll be interesting to watch the evolution. The rain tonight and any morning convection should aid in getting the front south but it's bumping up against a stout south flow. Personally I think the wedge from sets up just north of 74 in southern NC.

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Not a bad call on the wedge boundary..... I got to say, I am getting a little nervous about the possibilities for tomorrow. A lot of folks will be watching the radar closely.
 
SD said:
It'll be interesting to watch the evolution. The rain tonight and any morning convection should aid in getting the front south but it's bumping up against a stout south flow. Personally I think the wedge from sets up just north of 74 in southern NC.

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Click to expand...

That would mean overrunning precip for us.


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