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Tropical Gulf Low May 14 - 18

lol I'm actually in south (maybe central) Florida ATM (have been for this weekend), it really isn't bad, just rainy, which is actually helping with the temps!
 
Well, this is that little system that I've been keeping a eye on
 
I am all for this developing. We need the rain for sure. I would think, haven’t looked too much yet, it would not get strong if it does develop at all.
 
Euro is weaker but still a system this run with a landfall in the Panhandle late Wednesday

GFS was pretty similar. Definitely whatever forms will be fairly weak most likely
 
000
ABNT20 KNHC 141332
TWOAT

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
935 AM EDT Mon May 14 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A large area of cloudiness, showers, and thunderstorms extending
from the eastern Gulf of Mexico across much of the Florida Peninsula
is associated with a broad surface low pressure area interacting
with an upper-level low. This system could acquire some subtropical
or tropical characteristics while it moves slowly northward across
the eastern Gulf of Mexico during the next few days. Regardless of
subtropical or tropical cyclone formation, this system will enhance
rainfall across portions of Florida and the northeastern Gulf Coast
during the next few days. For more information on this system,
please see products issued by your local weather office. The next
Special Tropical Weather Outlook on this system will be issued by 4
PM EDT today.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch
Click to expand...
 
000
NOUS42 KNHC 141525
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1130 AM EDT MON 14 MAY 2018
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 15/1100Z TO 16/1100Z MAY 2018
TCPOD NUMBER.....18-001

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT SYSTEM (NE GULF OF MEXICO)
FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 71 FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 72
A. 15/1800Z A. 16/1130Z
B. AFXXX 01AAA INVEST B. AFXXX 0201A CYCLONE
C. 15/1600Z C. 16/0900Z
D. 28.0N 85.0W D. 29.0N 87.0W
E. 15/1730Z TO 15/2200Z E. 16/1100Z TO 16/1430Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
G. RESOURCES PERMITTING G. RESOURCES PERMITTING

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 12-HRLY FIXES IF SYSTEM
DEVELOPS AND REMAINS A THREAT, RESOURCES PERMITTING.
3. REMARKS: THIS IS A SPECIAL TCPOD. DAILY TCPODS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE ISSUED WHILE AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE MISSIONS
ARE BEING CONSIDERED OR TASKED FOR THIS SYSTEM.
Click to expand...
Recon is going to take a look at the storm for the next few days.
 
This is now Invest 90L.

Edit:
Correction: This has not yet been designated 90L. However, it could be very shortly.

Edit #2: Well, actually this may have already been designated Invest 90L after all per this article:

http://www.brevardtimes.com/2018/05...40-chance-tropical-cyclone-forms-off-florida/

"The system, dubbed Invest 90L, is a broad surface low and trough interacting with an upper-level low that is producing a large area of cloudiness, showers, and thunderstorms extending from the eastern Gulf of Mexico across much of the Florida Peninsula."
 
Last edited:
000
ABNT20 KNHC 141945
TWOAT

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
345 PM EDT Mon May 14 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A deep-layer non-tropical area of low pressure located over the
eastern Gulf of Mexico continues to produce widespread cloudiness,
showers, and thunderstorms across much of Florida and southeastern
Georgia. Although this system could still acquire some subtropical
or tropical characteristics while it moves slowly northward across
the eastern Gulf of Mexico during the next few days, the low has
not shown signs of increased organization during the past 24 hours.
Regardless of subtropical or tropical cyclone formation, this system
will produce locally heavy rainfall and possible flash flooding
across portions of Florida and the southeastern United States during
the next few days. For more information on this system, please see
products issued by your local weather office. The next Special
Tropical Weather Outlook on this system will be issued by 9 AM EDT
on Tuesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg
Click to expand...
 
000
ABNT20 KNHC 151201
TWOAT

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Tue May 15 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A broad non-tropical area of low pressure located over the
northeastern Gulf of Mexico is producing widespread cloudiness,
showers, and thunderstorms across much of Florida, southeastern
Georgia and a good portion of the Bahamas. This system has not
become any better organized since yesterday and conditions are
becoming even less favorable for subtropical or tropical cyclone
formation. This system, however, will continue to produce locally
heavy rainfall and possible flash flooding across portions of
Florida and the southeastern United States during the next few days
while the low moves generally northward. For more information on
this system, please see products issued by your local weather
office. The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook on this system
will be issued by 9 AM EDT on Wednesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Avila
Click to expand...
 
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