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Learning Global Warming facts and fiction

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pcbjr said:
Not an opinion ... every day my local paper reports the historic high and low for each day going back to when records were kept here. (Yes. Larry, it is the Sun so that has to be factored into accurate reporting ... LOL) ... Notably, the record highs generally (in fact by large measure as reported in the paper for this time of year) are in the 1894 - 1899 range ... some wierd wether happened in 1899 winter wise, and the Model-T was just a dream then ... not an editorial, just saying that folks may get caught up in what they see today as opposed to ...
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Humans have been on the earth for a few short time period. Mother Earth warms then cools and warms etc until something like a asteroid hits it etc... Mother Earth does what she wants when she wants and we don’t need to try to tame her. Woman can’t be trained( thats what my wife says at least) men can tho( wife’s again).


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GaWx said:
Attached is the July of 2019 global temperature anomaly from the CFSv2 per WxBell. It has the global anomaly at only +0.305 C vs 1981-2010. What struck me as surprising in the map is how much of the CONUS is pretty solidly cooler than normal. So, I decided to investigate.

I looked at numerous US cities’ July, 2019, mean anomalies starting with some in SD and NE. Then when they almost all came in warmer than that CFSv2 showed, especially in the eastern halves of those states, I decided to expand my analysis to cities in states such as MN, IA, IL, AZ, CO, LA, AR, TN, MS, AL, GA, FL, and the Pacific coast states. I made sure I was comparing apples to apples such as making sure the normals were based on 1981-2010 and I converted from F to C. I found only a very small % that were close, mainly in AR (where the coolness verified pretty well) and FL (the @pcbjr (and for a short time my own) home of Gainesville did actually come in near -0.5 F). But the vast majority came in 1-2 F or even warmer than the CFSv2 map showed!

After seeing this, I found out from Radiant/Maxar that Moscow came in 3.6 cooler than its 1981-2010 normal. If you look closely at the map, Moscow is on the edge of the green, some of the coldest in the northern Hem. The edge of the green is -3 C or -5.4 F. Comparing the -5.4 F suggested by the map to the actual of -3.6 F tells me that even at Moscow it is close to 1.8 F too cool!

When you folks get a chance, check for yourself rather than take my word for it. Why is this so important? Because WxBell is essentially claiming based on this CFSv2 map that the globe was only 0.305 C warmer than the 1981-2010 globe average. But if one were to adjust for the average error in the too cool direction, the actual could very easily be more like 1 F warmer than +0.305 C. If so, that would bring the actual anomaly closer to +1 C vs 1981-2010 normals! Even if the average error in the map were only 0.5 F too cool, that would still be enough to warm the anomaly from +0.305 C to near +0.55 to +0.60 C. This is a big deal to me and should be investigated. I do not trust Weather Bell at all. I also do wonder about the methodologies of the CFSv2 to determine this map.

Any other opinions?View attachment 21431
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New development considering this CFSv2 map. Ryan Maue, the former employee of WxBell who actually was the guy who is responsible for first producing the CSFv2 anomalies maps, is saying in response to Roy Spencer that what he said is false because the July, 2019, CSFv2 anomalies map is flawed and therefore shouldn’t be used!!



To review what I said earlier in this thread, this CFSv2 map is overall significantly cooler than what official station data shows in many areas of the US like SD, NE, MN, IA, LA, TN, AZ and the west coast states among others as well as in Moscow, Russia. The issue is that those who claim July, 2019, was at or near the warmest month on record globally are basing it on ~+0.56 C anomaly vs 1981-2010 normals. In contrast, the CFSv2 map that Roy Spencer was touting shows only +0.305. Now we have the creator of that map with only +0.305 saying it has a major flaw and shouldn’t be used!

And now look what Spencer has added to his article:

“[NOTE: It turns out that the WMO, which announced July 2019 as a near-record, relies upon the ERA5 reanalysis which apparently departs substantially from the CFSv2 reanalysis, making my proposed reliance on only reanalysis data for surface temperature monitoring also subject to considerable uncertainty].”
 
GaWx said:
New development considering this CFSv2 map. Ryan Maue, the former employee of WxBell who actually was the guy who is responsible for first producing the CSFv2 anomalies maps, is saying in response to Roy Spencer that what he said is false because the July, 2019, CSFv2 anomalies map is flawed and therefore shouldn’t be used!!



To review what I said earlier in this thread, this CFSv2 map is overall significantly cooler than what official station data shows in many areas of the US like SD, NE, MN, IA, LA, TN, AZ and the west coast states among others as well as in Moscow, Russia. The issue is that those who claim July, 2019, was at or near the warmest month on record globally are basing it on ~+0.56 C anomaly vs 1981-2010 normals. In contrast, the CFSv2 map that Roy Spencer was touting shows only +0.305. Now we have the creator of that map with only +0.305 saying it has a major flaw and shouldn’t be used!

And now look what Spencer has added to his article:

“[NOTE: It turns out that the WMO, which announced July 2019 as a near-record, relies upon the ERA5 reanalysis which apparently departs substantially from the CFSv2 reanalysis, making my proposed reliance on only reanalysis data for surface temperature monitoring also subject to considerable uncertainty].”
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Nice detective work!


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The earth cools, the earth warms. Has so for billions of years. Climate is obviously one of the most complex systems known to man. Having been on earth for only 49 years I have learned one thing for sure. Mankind is extremely arrogant......I'm not a scientist so I tend to stay out of that end of the debate so I just stick with what I am pretty good at which is COMMON SENSE. According to may so called climate experts we were already supposed to be under water by now yet I look around and I don't see any of these politicians shoving carbon taxes down my throat selling their beachfront mansions. If we only have 10 years to live before the climate kills us all, I would think you could follow the money and see what a crock of dung this all is. I remember a few years back when Greg Fishel changed his mind about manmade climate change so he went to the arctic looking for answers to disappearing sea ice and global destruction. The scientist he went up there to visit pretty much told him to look around, he had nothing to fear, go back home and enjoy your life so The Fish went to Berkley California to get a second opinion. To sum it up.....its ok to want to treat the planet better (we all should) but you aren't going to die or starve to death and you have little to no control over what is happening now or in the future climate wise. Better to spend your valuable time adapting than arguing......
 
If you wanted to terraform a planet and make it much warmer you would add enormous amounts of greenhouse gases to the atmosphere which is exactly what we’re doing. What’s happening now reminds me of that cringy alien movie Arrival with Charlie Sheen.


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Stole this from the other board. September departures going back to 2007. Not a single blade of grass is below average. So it's not just us who can't get a average September. There is no way we could pull this off without climate change. And this is against 1981-2010 norms, which are already high.Screenshot_20190912-200220_Chrome.jpg
 
Snowless & Grumpy said:
Stole this from the other board. September departures going back to 2007. Not a single blade of grass is below average. So it's not just us who can't get a average September. There is no way we could pull this off without climate change. And this is against 1981-2010 norms, which are already high.View attachment 23507
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1981-2010 normals are actually relatively cool specifically in winter when compared to previous decades . A lot of warming especially places west of the app mountains that cooled drastically 1960-1990 is just rebound . Winters we see today were common place in the 1930-1960 time period . Take a look at the NWS now data site if you don’t believe me .

Nashville winter averages 1981-2010 are over 1 degree colder than the entire por . Which shows 1981-2010 is a cooler period . Admittedly heavily skewed by the intensely cold 80s . That whole 1960-1990 period fits better in the early 1900s and 1800s than it does today.
 
The Arctic is back to being solidly warmer than normal after the typical summer respite at near normal:
A51B9698-FBD4-4B76-835C-D8851810DB29.png
 
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It’s been warmer and colder in the past.


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WEATHERBOYROY said:
Here's a taste of global warming....Montana today!
View attachment 24117
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The super hot blob of ocean water in the pacific is what caused the jet stream to buckle way north and back down in the nw bringing the cold. You are conveniently ignoring the weeks long heatwave in the south shattering records. Thats why this thread sucks. Full of deniers.


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I think the giant meteor that hit the Yucatán started global warming, after the 2-3 years without a summer, before then , it was all the dinosaurs farts! It’s always something
 
Tarheel1 said:
Post of the year! And what the people need to see! Weather is cyclical, and 1000 years from now, could easily be a mini ice age!
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Oh so they can ignore the problem and keep pumping ever increasing CO2 into the atmosphere wreaking the climate?
 
Here we go with the same old tired denier and disproven arguments that totally ignore science.


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Let me guess, evolution didn’t happen?? God just plopped a few humans on earth???
 
What that has me concerned the most is the arctic sea ice. I have been following it since the early 2000's. It's troubling to say the least. Now, is it just a cycle or a product of atmospheric forcing? I will say this.....it will take a decade or more of perfect "reverse dipole" patterns for the ice to return to normal.
In the 1960's and 1970's we introduced aerosols into the atmosphere at an alarming rate. We are all aware that aerosols cool the atmosphere by allowing heat to escape. What happened to our climate in the 1960's? .... The atmosphere cooled, and we outlawed those gases (due to ozone depletion). Years later, the atmosphere responded and has, for the most part, returned to the pre-1960's era with regards to aerosols.
Now, I consider myself a fairly well educated man, (degree in electrical engineering) and I am well aware of all the CO2 greenhouse calculations. It is my opinion that the increase in CO2 has effectively altered the patterns that have been dominant for so many years. Do I believe all the data hype?.... Absolutely not. Do I think that we should all go build underground bunkers for the coming apocalypse?....Nope. Bottom line, there will always be change and we as a species will adapt to it. Everyone wants to yell and scream about climate change, when in reality, our current world cannot swallow the financial burden of a world without fossil fuels. The trick will be to find a way to eliminate CO2 in combustion exhaust streams. The company that is able to do that on an affordable scale, will be the next Bill Gates.
 
BHS1975 said:
The super hot blob of ocean water in the pacific is what caused the jet stream to buckle way north and back down in the nw bringing the cold. You are conveniently ignoring the weeks long heatwave in the south shattering records. Thats why this thread sucks. Full of deniers.


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Except your ignoring the fact that despite all this “ globull warming “ that September 1925 smokes this current September in how hot it was .... one winter back in the 1800s.1889-1890 to be specific , Raleigh averages all three winter months with highs over 60. Last time that happened was in the 30s. 1900-1960 is a time of stability , longer growing seasons , and milder mean lows in Raleigh but 1960-2019 has been a time of wacky weather, record cold , and lots of snow ... oh and shorter growing seasons
 
Look at this huge ridge going all the way across the arctic. No wonder its cold in one tiny corner of the high mountain west.

f8eedfa0fcb4275653d851c1554cb371.jpg






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BHS1975 said:
The super hot blob of ocean water in the pacific is what caused the jet stream to buckle way north and back down in the nw bringing the cold. You are conveniently ignoring the weeks long heatwave in the south shattering records. Thats why this thread sucks. Full of deniers.


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So, in my observations of local, regional, and global atmospheric patterns, there seems to be a trend toward weather systems slowing up. Ridges seem to be tougher, low pressures seem to be stronger, and patterns in general get set on repeat. How much of these patterns are due to long term climate trends and how much are influenced by man's activities, to me, seems unclear.

The problem with the arguments about CO2 seems to be that as much as mankind has been producing in that area, we just aren't outputting near the amount that other non-human systems are producing, such as volcanoes. We must not forget in this discussion that Earth has some built in systems for dealing with excess carbon dioxide. One good way is through vegetation. This is why I've always been a supporter of forest renewal.
 
And look at that huge anomaly over Greenland melting that ice like crazy. I hope you don’t have any beach front property.


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BHS1975 said:
Look at this huge ridge going all the way across the arctic. No wonder its cold in one tiny corner of the high mountain west.

f8eedfa0fcb4275653d851c1554cb371.jpg






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That's a preview of our winter pattern. Massive blocking and still torch from our old buddy the SER.
 
Other than making us engage in self loathing and guilt, what are the reasons that politicians, media figure heads, and activists continually tell us that we're bumping up the thermostat on the Earth? I mean, even if it could be proven, how is this actionable? Regardless of who or what is behind the climate changes, shouldn't we as humans do what we've always done - adapt to the changes?
 
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