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Misc General Banter Thread

Man this thing has Jan 2000 vibes. Went to bed forecasted to be a late bloomer, maybe an inch or two, but instead was an absolute boom crush job.
 
jjwxman said:
Man this thing has Jan 2000 vibes. Went to bed forecasted to be a late bloomer, maybe an inch or two, but instead was an absolute boom crush job.
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It also has the vibes of so many OTS storms where Elizabeth City and OBX were the only places seeing accumulating snow on the way out.
 
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Let’s keep this finger band right here and then everybody else wins on the actually system. Thanks guys!
 
jjwxman said:
Man this thing has Jan 2000 vibes. Went to bed forecasted to be a late bloomer, maybe an inch or two, but instead was an absolute boom crush job.
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It would have been a late bloomer if it wasn't for that convection from the strong shortwave moving offshore of GA.
 
I know it’s the end of the NAM but…the end of the NAM #flurrywatch

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If the ICON was the solution, I'd kind of want to chase a little, but I'd be much more uncertain here because of the cold temps we're going to have here, so it's more likely the roads would be frozen.

Yeah, I get snow with that solution, but heavier snow is right on my doorstep. "stamps feet"
 
Ksnow33 said:
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This is a *hilarious* track for Atlanta. DeKalb county (the entire east side of Atlanta) gets almost 2 inches. Fulton County (the entire west side of Atlanta, including the city proper and midtown/downtown) gets blanked. Obviously this is not a real forecast and just a random ICON run but it's just so funny imagining that. Very similar to last year's second event where there was that sharp sharp cutoff NW of 85 in Atlanta.
 
KyloG said:
We got BAM and the Spire/UK/AIFS/Canadian...💪


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We forgot the "it's got to hit the NE" index. A whiff for us is probably a whiff for them. So yeah, BAM got to call for the NW trend this time. lol.

Edit to say, Spire/UK/AIFS/Canadian is not a terrible team honestly. Just not the best. It's like having Lebron on our side, but up against Michael Jordan. And no, that's not even a debate. 😭
 
3" of snow in Charlotte would be the biggest storm in about eight years

4" of snow in Charlotte would be the biggest in twelve years..

I would be ecstatic with a 3-5" storm total from this, I would be happy with 1-3" and satisfied with just seeing snow fall.

I'm honestly scared of this making a last minute trend to another potential ice storm somehow.
 
My forecast is for high expectations to increase throughout today, but watch out after 18z as trends/model output refines to more realistic outcomes. Chance of cliffdiving 100% tonight through Thurs AM, but could rebound from Thurs evening into midday Fri. Cliffdiving may be heavy at times.
 
mx3gsr92 said:
By this time tomorrow, we'll be looking at 37 and rain as it rides the alps
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not on this situation; it'll end up like the ukmet's last run and too late, cold but no precip

we are already looking towards the ULL being the dominant factor on the west side... not great
 
What a range of scenarios here with the likes of the GFS and UKMET. Complete whiff or 30". I wish forecasting Winter Storms was more straight forward for us in the South. It's a roller coaster everytime.
 
znel52 said:
What a range of scenarios here with the likes of the GFS and UKMET. Complete whiff or 30". I wish forecasting Winter Storms was more straight forward for us in the South. It's a roller coaster everytime.
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go with the one with a whiff; and if you get snow, be happy

the ukmet is showing how picky this situation is; wild run swings from a model that generally locks in even if it's wrong about something.. and it's generally okay with phasing so.... very finicky
 
I hate myself …. Booked the anniversary Trip to Savannah Friday - Sunday and of course the potential for biggest storm of my generation exist. I’ve never gitten more than 13”. If we were predicted 15-20” should I file for divorce? I mean can’t have FOMO all weekend. There will be others in the future, and by others I mean women


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weather nerd said:
go with the one with a whiff; and if you get snow, be happy

the ukmet is showing how picky this situation is; wild run swings from a model that generally locks in even if it's wrong about something.. and it's generally okay with phasing so.... very finicky
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This is the safest bet.
 
lets be honest; large snowstorms in the teens don't happen much if ever for a reason down here

that is always a red flag to me, to see very low 20s and teens during precip on modeling
 
I find both terms acceptable
Webberweather53 said:
The GEFS is trending in the right direction with the slower wave and earlier tilt, still could afford some continued shifts in tilt.

View attachment 190037


For Central NC, you need this upper wave to go neutrally tilted over roughly the I-65 corridor from about Huntsville to Nashville to maximize your potential out of this. That’s basically what the 12z GFS does

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The CMC oth is a really good hit but the neutral tilt is a bit late over I-75 or Atlanta to Knoxville instead. Hence, our storm is a tad east as well.

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