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Wintry Machine Learning Mauler 1/30-2/1

Cary_Snow95 said:
I'd like to point out how comical it is that we are 84-96 hours from onset, maps are printing huge totals, and we still aren't sure if it is a complete whiff to the east. Combine that with the last weekend and mets have to be nervous about which direction to go with this
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Thing is, relatively speaking, there's only a few models showing possible whiff. Problem is, those models are knocking it out the park lately and I'm not sure the AI data is in the NBM output
 
rburrel2 said:
That surface trough over northeast Georgia is going to produce, big time. It’s pinging too hard on global models… with high ratios, there could be a stationary band of insane totals from that.

We love for that trough to trend over my way a little, lol. Doesn’t look like it’s happening though.
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yeah i'm hoping i'm just not sitting right outside of it. In general the models have had it right over me which makes me a bit nervous because what are the odds that is correct this far out?
 
beanskip said:
I know the ULL is doing some work here, but if I were anywhere west of Greensboro -- and certainly on or west of the I-77 corridor -- I'd be super skeptical of Atlantic precip being thrown back my way. This old man can remember many times when models depicted this, but it didn't pan out.
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Yes, sir, I am well aware of that. seen it too many times myself...
 
beanskip said:
I know the ULL is doing some work here, but if I were anywhere west of Greensboro -- and certainly on or west of the I-77 corridor -- I'd be super skeptical of Atlantic precip being thrown back my way. This old man can remember many times when models depicted this, but it didn't pan out.
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Not concerned in any way with what the surface low is doing for us west of I-77…it’s all about getting the teardrop wave to drop along the proper path, tilt, and vorticity strength
 
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Oh LAWD
1769900400-bHlien8t8ck.png
 
beanskip said:
I know the ULL is doing some work here, but if I were anywhere west of Greensboro -- and certainly on or west of the I-77 corridor -- I'd be super skeptical of Atlantic precip being thrown back my way. This old man can remember many times when models depicted this, but it didn't pan out.
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I wonder how tight the gradient will be with this. On Jan 24, 2000, I got 1 foot while Spartanburg and Gaffney both 20 miles to my north and NW got 0.
 
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