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Misc General Banter Thread

The fish better not steal all our dang snow
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I don’t get the gripe with the weathermen. They don’t issue watches and warnings. If the NWS puts you under an ice storm warning and all of the data says “yeah this is about to be really bad” you have to forecast that way. You can’t forecast on a hunch that “hey yeah I think maybe probably the wedge is SO undermodeled that the freezing rain is maybe probably going to freeze a couple hundred feet above the treeline and turn back into ice crystals before reaching the surface. I know ball.”
Society of people that can't be satisfied and rather complain about everything. Issue the warning, nothing happens - complain: don't issue the warning, ice storm hits - complain: issue the warning and get major ice storm - complain it was worse or not as bad or something. They are in a lose lose situation honestly
 
Society of people that can't be satisfied and rather complain about everything. Issue the warning, nothing happens - complain: don't issue the warning, ice storm hits - complain: issue the warning and get major ice storm - complain it was worse or not as bad or something. They are in a lose lose situation honestly
Society and Politicians started creating victims in the mid-to-late sixties, It's been big business ever since. If you have to ask what this means or want to argue about it....you're most likely a victim.
 
This last storm exhausted me. I’m not looking forward to the one this weekend.or should I say the supposed storm this weekend. Winter just all around sucks in my area anymore and clearly not much is going to change.

I’m convinced the YouTube and X videos that these guys post are about little more than $. Do they love weather? Yes. Do they hype up storms for more views and likes and $? Hell yes.
 
Icon isn’t worth the paper it’s printed on. It’s just for entertainment purposes. Example: here’s what it showed for big ice storm we just had at the same lead time.

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So it got dryer? Damn not good man lol
 
I wonder...

If you had two experienced meteorologists, gave one access to ALL models and gave the other access to ONLY AIFS-ENS and WeatherNext2.. which would be more accurate? Which would more fully and effectively communicate potential threats/scenarios?
 
Super stupid question here.. do the budget cuts for NWS and other services, plus less weather balloon launches affect just our GFS? … or all models?


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Super stupid question here.. do the budget cuts for NWS and other services, plus less weather balloon launches affect just our GFS? … or all models?


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1) Balloon launches - There's likely little effect to begin with. We saw no measurable reduction in model accuracy during the time when there were the fewest balloon launches. Models use way more than just balloon data to assimilate upper air data. And NOAA just launched their latest SOTA satellite (GOES-19) which goes a long way.
2) Budget cuts - what budget cuts? There have been no budget cuts to NWS. There have been staffing shortages at times in warning forecast offices, but this doesn't affect model accuracy.
3) If there were some kind of reduction in accuracy as a result of reduced balloons, it would affect all models.. since they all assimilate the same balloon data.

Your question isn't stupid at all, it is just driven by misinformation pushed by political figures.
 
1) Balloon launches - There's likely little effect to begin with. We saw no measurable reduction in model accuracy during the time when there were the fewest balloon launches. Models use way more than just balloon data to assimilate upper air data. And NOAA just launched their latest SOTA satellite (GOES-19) which goes a long way.
2) Budget cuts - what budget cuts? There have been no budget cuts to NWS. There have been staffing shortages at times in warning forecast offices, but this doesn't affect model accuracy.
3) If there were some kind of reduction in accuracy as a result of reduced balloons, it would affect all models.. since they all assimilate the same balloon data.

Your question isn't stupid at all, it is just driven by misinformation pushed by political figures.

Thanks for the information.


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Well. Can’t say I’m feeling good for Atlanta on this one.

But ”Nothing” looming over you sure as hell beats the nightmare ice storm apocalypse! I have a new perspective after the first time I’ve ever been grateful that a winter storm didn’t deliver.

This is actually fun again!
 
remember, in model chasing, the key is to always follow the model with the worst reputation if it shows snow; if it shows no snow, it is wrong!

i remember what the canadian did last year, and the year before that, and that, and that

better not ignore the ukmet; it was not bad way early on with the last event
 
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