Bigedd09
Member
The fish better not steal all our dang snow
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Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Society of people that can't be satisfied and rather complain about everything. Issue the warning, nothing happens - complain: don't issue the warning, ice storm hits - complain: issue the warning and get major ice storm - complain it was worse or not as bad or something. They are in a lose lose situation honestlyI don’t get the gripe with the weathermen. They don’t issue watches and warnings. If the NWS puts you under an ice storm warning and all of the data says “yeah this is about to be really bad” you have to forecast that way. You can’t forecast on a hunch that “hey yeah I think maybe probably the wedge is SO undermodeled that the freezing rain is maybe probably going to freeze a couple hundred feet above the treeline and turn back into ice crystals before reaching the surface. I know ball.”
Society and Politicians started creating victims in the mid-to-late sixties, It's been big business ever since. If you have to ask what this means or want to argue about it....you're most likely a victim.Society of people that can't be satisfied and rather complain about everything. Issue the warning, nothing happens - complain: don't issue the warning, ice storm hits - complain: issue the warning and get major ice storm - complain it was worse or not as bad or something. They are in a lose lose situation honestly
So it got dryer? Damn not good man lolIcon isn’t worth the paper it’s printed on. It’s just for entertainment purposes. Example: here’s what it showed for big ice storm we just had at the same lead time.
View attachment 189760
ICON is right where we want it at this juncture, right? Right???![]()
@mx3gsr92 welfare check0z GFS would be a win for the entirety of BOTH Carolinas. that'd be so fun to seeView attachment 189792
12-18” of powder pasted across the mean streets of Moyock?6 days out. . .we all know how this will end.
I think they widened up some after the GFS and CMC runs.Shows how to fail though. Cow fart away from nothing for anybody. I’d argue the goalposts are narrow for this one. Especially for western piedmont.
Now 2-4" is going to feel like a letdown.Honestly don’t know how to feel about that CMC run. It’s hard to come back to reality
Remember, they're also the ones that published GraphCast which evolved into AIFS. They are the ones that keep innovating.I know it’s banter but Google .. you folks know how to make a damn weather model
I’m glad yall got this over with early! It’s a wrap! No more sleepless nights!
1) Balloon launches - There's likely little effect to begin with. We saw no measurable reduction in model accuracy during the time when there were the fewest balloon launches. Models use way more than just balloon data to assimilate upper air data. And NOAA just launched their latest SOTA satellite (GOES-19) which goes a long way.Super stupid question here.. do the budget cuts for NWS and other services, plus less weather balloon launches affect just our GFS? … or all models?
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1) Balloon launches - There's likely little effect to begin with. We saw no measurable reduction in model accuracy during the time when there were the fewest balloon launches. Models use way more than just balloon data to assimilate upper air data. And NOAA just launched their latest SOTA satellite (GOES-19) which goes a long way.
2) Budget cuts - what budget cuts? There have been no budget cuts to NWS. There have been staffing shortages at times in warning forecast offices, but this doesn't affect model accuracy.
3) If there were some kind of reduction in accuracy as a result of reduced balloons, it would affect all models.. since they all assimilate the same balloon data.
Your question isn't stupid at all, it is just driven by misinformation pushed by political figures.