Misc General Banter Thread

[Drizzle Snizzle]

I don't think the NWS in Peachtree City is buying the 2-3" Ice Amounts. They are saying much less in their forecast:

WHAT...Significant icing possible. Total ice accumulations around
four tenths of an inch possible.

 

[GeorgiaGirl]

Umm -- weird. By 4pm Euro suggests ATL already up to 44º with a severe storm threat. That's a heck of a CAD erosion... has surface temps already up to 37º by 1pm.

View attachment 187617

Not sure I buy the warmup but a lot of the damage presumably would have already been done overnight by the 0.5" of ice (FRAM).

Yeah, I'm going to say that the CAD erosion shown is not verifying here.

In fact, I'm going to say my NWS needs to drop my forecast high again lmaooo. It might hit the 40's with the CAD erosion on the southern end, but if we don't do the failure mode of no precip, we're still going to have issues.

 

[rburrel2]

@KyloG did you get in on generac? I’m up 10%. Plan to sell on Monday

 

[Snowflowxxl]

All hail the ICON, new king of CAD

 

[KyloG]

@KyloG did you get in on generac? I’m up 10%. Plan to sell on Monday

Nah...I am in prepare for the upcoming correction. Not doing a whole lot...I was short QQQ from Friday, covered yesterday in pre-market, thank god as Trump caved...then went long Qs yesterday. Just simple trades for now...

 

[WolfpackHomer91]

He just refuses to give up


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[WolfpackHomer91]

I don't think the NWS in Peachtree City is buying the 2-3" Ice Amounts. They are saying much less in their forecast:

WHAT...Significant icing possible. Total ice accumulations around
four tenths of an inch possible.

They’re never gonna put that in a forecast…. I’d say most you’d ever see written is 3/4” - 1” Possibly more in spots.

No need to put anything else imo. If it goes over it goes over, but historically that is virtually impossible idc what a model says that’s never happened and never will. Even 1” is too much imo


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[BufordWX]

Does anybody know - or know where I can look to find - the last time FFC issued an Ice Storm Warning? However long it’s been, that streak likely ends tomorrow.

—30—

I could have missed one, but I saw only two instances of Ice Storm Warnings being issued by FFC for part of their area. December 2005 and February 2014. Think theres a good chance we will get another one soon.

 

[SnowNiner]

He just refuses to give up


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Even though 12Z euro shifted big time south? Still pretty similar up that way, not sure it makes much difference yet.

I'm interested to see if the next 24 hours everything starts shifting south. Does the PV push, does the phase weaken to push this south?

 

[WolfpackHomer91]

Even though 12Z euro shifted big time south? Still pretty similar up that way, not sure it makes much difference yet.

I'm interested to see if the next 24 hours everything starts shifting south. Does the PV push, does the phase weaken to push this south?

Yea I’d need to see 4 (25 mile shifts over next 4 cycles) that’s 100 Miles that’s what I call a trend worth noting


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[WolfpackHomer91]

Mitch made it holy lol


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[ALHammerWx]

I wanted to update the Alabamians. Fixed the map for us.

 

[Sctvman]

 

[atlwx]

I don't think the NWS in Peachtree City is buying the 2-3" Ice Amounts. They are saying much less in their forecast:

WHAT...Significant icing possible. Total ice accumulations around
four tenths of an inch possible.

Think their wording and thoughts are the sanity needed at this point. Qpf trend is still in flux. Also not all will freeze if just 30-32. Some will run/drip off.

 

[CaryWx]

Yea I’d need to see 4 (25 mile shifts over next 4 cycles) that’s 100 Miles that’s what I call a trend worth noting


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How big was this shift? 25miles?

 

[Drizzle Snizzle]

Think their wording and thoughts are the sanity needed at this point. Qpf trend is still in flux. Also not all will freeze if just 30-32. Some will run/drip off.

I think it will be interesting to see if it changes back to just plain rain for most areas on Sunday Afternoon.

 

[atlwx]

I think it will be interesting to see if it changes back to just plain rain for most areas on Sunday Afternoon.

Damage will have been done by then. But would be nice to melt some before the bottom falls out overnight.

 

[crecre9]

Huntsville has been downgraded to a lowly Winter Weather Advisory. Even that is probably unnecessary.

 

[Drizzle Snizzle]

Huntsville has been downgraded to a lowly Winter Weather Advisory. Even that is probably unnecessary.

Going from a Winter Storm Watch to an Advisory is not a Downgrade.

 

[Tsappfrog20]

Huntsville has been downgraded to a lowly Winter Weather Advisory. Even that is probably unnecessary.

That’s actually an increase in order of of the warning . Just fyi


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[weather bubba]

https://www.wral.com/weather/meteorologist-warm-nose-winter-precipitation-january-2026/

I thought this was an interesting explanation of what a warn nose is and how it affects winter weather precipitation types. It will be helpful for those of us like me who have trouble reading Skew T diagrams and soundings.

 

[Drizzle Snizzle]

What if everything comes back to 4-5 days ago?

It can't change that much in such a short time. Any big changes would be today. By tomorrow morning we are pretty much locked in.

 

[lusting4Adusting]

Huntsville has been downgraded to a lowly Winter Weather Advisory. Even that is probably unnecessary.

I think the only question for the ol HSV is, is the combination of CAD to the east and a 1040 plus shoving down from midwest enough to keep the power of the Warm Air Advection and the Low it's going to pop, shoved down a bit further south than current modeling is showing. The crappy part of all that is, even if it does that, a crap ton of Ice seems to be the only reward. 33/34 and a flood or a dark and cold skating rink. Hooray!!!

 

[KyloG]

The inevitable north trend...we got got...again. BAM spoke...and we didn't listen. This was just a couple of days ago...

Rule #1...always a north trend, every time without exception...unless it's snowing in Florida and then not.

 

[Drizzle Snizzle]

Ice Storm Warning for Northwest Alabama !

 

[Pup12]

You just can’t make this up! The nose in north central AL. This happens so much over the years it seems.
View attachment 187584

I’ve seen it happen twice since 2021

 

[Drizzle Snizzle]

Louisville is where I wanna be for this storm. They are gonna get hammered.

 

[crecre9]

That’s actually an increase in order of of the warning . Just fyi


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Lol I know. Don't get me wrong, I absolutely don't want an ice disaster, I'm just still dreaming of the runs from a few days ago with a mountain of snow.

 

[Pup12]

I wanted to update the Alabamians. Fixed the map for us.
View attachment 187639

So true, except Florence area usually gets it then the cutoff hits I65

 

[Drizzle Snizzle]

So true, except Florence area usually gets it then the cutoff hits I65

Florence is under an Ice Storm Warning !

 

[KyloG]

For those that are bored...I like Brad P's video update earlier. Always a good listen and he had some interesting thoughts on the ptype and Euro v/s GFS

 

[J.C.]

Allan Huffman’s Map

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This is a good map, but I think C could be more rain than anyone, he doesn't have rain listed as an option there, but maybe its implied.

 

[GeorgiaGirl]

Are freezing rain advisories still a thing? It's been so long that I'm honestly not sure.

 

[rburrel2]

@Jimmy Hypocracy we get the shaft on every major snowstorm for a decade... and then dead center the bullseye on the first big freezing rain threat in a decade.

You can't make this stuff up.

 

[atlwx]

Are freezing rain advisories still a thing? It's been so long that I'm honestly not sure.

All winter products: https://www.weather.gov/ffc/wntrproducts

 

[GeorgiaGirl]

All winter products: https://www.weather.gov/ffc/wntrproducts

Yeah, it looks like they've been discontinued as I thought.

Well, if what we see holds, it would mean WWA criteria in my county and an ice storm warning issued probably as far south as the county directly to my north.

 

[LithiaWx]

Anecdotal.

I’ve lived in N. GA for 40 years. CAD overperforms in setups like this. So does the warm nose.

Atlanta could be spared but NE GA is cooked.

Atlanta is “due” for the big one. Ice storm

 

[GeorgiaGirl]

They are prepping worse than Helene here. What are you guys seeing? A lot panic and desperation across the socials. Scary stuff

They 100% are shook here. And it's fair as while we've shifted north of the earlier projections, I saw 0.5" ice thrown around as a possibility by local mets.

I'm honestly hoping for failure mode involving precip, but someone to my north, probably towards Greenwood or the upstate is going to get their 2/12/14 probably.

 

[WxBlue]

I really don't like that we're repeating ice storm of 2002 here...

 

[Cad Wedge NC]

Imagine living in the time before models and dependable forecasts. If I am standing outside right now, I would have no clue what's about to happen in the next few days. Think about that....