What are your thoughts as to why FFC included the counties least likely to be affected by CAD in their WSW, and leave off counties that would be affected, Jackson, Madison, etc?
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Misc General Banter Thread
- Thread starter Rain Cold
- Start date
Usmeagle2005
Member
These models playing mind games with us. “Ok now move it back south a bit to give them a little hope”
Let’s not forget how goof a lot of us looked last week to lose our storm. I hope those up north loss this one!
Shadypines33
Member
You know who likes freezing rain? Crazy people!
Wasn't it Larry cosgrove that said i hope you get an inch if ice?
Iykyk
Iykyk
WolfpackHomer91
Member
Watches went up for GSP 3-6” SN/IP ….1” ICE
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
That's how I feel about some of these posts today
Snowflowxxl
Member
Just seen on facebook
Drizzle Snizzle
Member
So unprofessional. It's ridiculous to show a map that shows 25" of snow in North Georgia. That has never happened and will never happen. There wasn't even that much snow in the Blizzard of 93.
I’m
Because there’s less confidence that the CAd will even hold. No need for a winter storm watch for a cold rain.
Don't blame FFC at all for waiting on watches for the immediate metro. They can always add them after 0z runs if it holds.
Really I think the advent of social media has ruined weather forecasting - deterministic model runs from 120 hours out are shared all over the place and then the general public demands to know how much snow for my backyard, will I die in icepocalypse, etc. Back in the day NWS offices used to be EXTREMELY conservative, especially RAH when I grew up there.
Really I think the advent of social media has ruined weather forecasting - deterministic model runs from 120 hours out are shared all over the place and then the general public demands to know how much snow for my backyard, will I die in icepocalypse, etc. Back in the day NWS offices used to be EXTREMELY conservative, especially RAH when I grew up there.
NCPROGRAMMER
Member
Man, we are close to a Winter Storm flash flooding event in most of the south. Yikes. Euro said NO
Either the Euro is drunk or at this rate, there will be no CAD at all.
Snowflowxxl
Member
I know that gets under some people’s skin
Maybe NWS should've held off on that watch for another 24 hrs
Actually no, you're closer to a warm rain. Get the shorts out
This is anecdotal and may in fact be so long ago that it's irrelevant at this point, but I recall the Euro completely whiffed on the major ice storm the NW NC Piedmont had in March 2014, for example. We had well over 1" of liquid equivalent of sleet and ice pellets (along with snow along the border counties) and had power outages for several days. The GFS and NAM picked up on this potential, but the Euro completely whiffed all the way to the end, giving us a cold rain.
EDIT: I am going to take this to banter so I don't clog up the main discussion thread.
At this point getting the Baja wave out faster would save this, I think delaying it is just going to make this warmer and NW
That might be the earliest RAH has pulled the trigger on a watch in recent memory. We are over 72 hrs away and they are known for waiting it out at least 48. I was thinking Thurs morning.
Heck, GSP surprised me too.
.09 zr for Columbia? Sign me up. Won’t lose power over that
I think it’s just indicative of how much of a sure thing this one is. We don’t the details, but this point it’s hard to conceive of a situation where much of RAH’s CWA doesn’t get warning criteria of some sort of wintry precip and this could be a storm that is as bad or worse than December 2002 (TBD, but plausible). So they felt the need to get out the warning ASAP.
Drizzle Snizzle
Member
Glenn Burns is something else. He said on Facebook he's blocked like 300 people today.
What’s his analysis?
RollTide18
Member
Am I tripping or I don’t see many clippers in SE anymore?
I completely agree. I don't think they know the exact details of how this will meet criteria, but have higher than normal confidence it will, regardless of predominant ptype.
Also a rare case in that confidence over the entire CWA. Even over @SD's house.
I need the rainI completely agree. I don't think they know the exact details of how this will meet criteria, but have higher than normal confidence it will, regardless of predominant ptype.
Also a rare case in that confidence over the entire CWA. Even over @SD's house.
I'm just glad the euro is even taking a major ice storm away from my yard. I was sweating bullets for a while there
All of the other WFO's around Raleigh mention totals in their initial WSW statements. RAH has declined in their initial statement. Probably a smart move there! Over the years I have learned to appreciate their conservative nature. I'd be nervous to mention any totals until the 12z suite tomorrow.
I still think we see following on this board somewhere.
More than 1, several loose power
Foot plus snow/sleet accum Somehwere
Thundersleet report
0 or below zero report mon or tues a.m.
All chasing another storm by middle next week
More than 1, several loose power
Foot plus snow/sleet accum Somehwere
Thundersleet report
0 or below zero report mon or tues a.m.
All chasing another storm by middle next week
I agree. On the one hand, I have high confidence we see a warning criteria event, and potentially a historic one. On the other hand, I couldn't hazard a reasonable guess on what that warning criteria event consists of. We could get 4-8" of snow or absolutely get skunked on snowfall. We could get 6" of ice pellets. We could get 1" of ZR. Who knows? But it will be a big storm and many of us will be cold early next week!!
Snowking2.0
Member
So we are under a WSW for a cold rain smh can’t make this stuff up i guess i need to be excited because it’s the only weather i got
idk guys; the solutions were so unbelievable early on because they weren't accurate
winter weather in the teens and low 20s makes no sense in the deeper south, i-20 etc.
the clear trend is to not be as cold or "historical" and there is no refuting that at this point
gefs is starting to show rain for many areas on the individual members, first time since tracking, i expect it to continue to fold
it's funny that the ai models actually had an okay idea early on and then as they got more data started to fail along with the traditional ones
winter weather in the teens and low 20s makes no sense in the deeper south, i-20 etc.
the clear trend is to not be as cold or "historical" and there is no refuting that at this point
gefs is starting to show rain for many areas on the individual members, first time since tracking, i expect it to continue to fold
it's funny that the ai models actually had an okay idea early on and then as they got more data started to fail along with the traditional ones
Regression to the mean. If you see something HIGHLY anomalous and are disappointed unless exactly that scenario unfolds you are in for a world of disappointment. If it has never happened or almost never happens, it probably won't happen.*
*Unless you are in Florida in Jan 2025
Snowking2.0
Member
Now that i can put this system to bed and move on are there any other possible threats we can track? Never thought ill be having a bad day
GeorgiaGirl
Member
I tell you what, presuming this isn't coming back south of the most CAD favored areas, they are set up perfectly for the Helene esque surprise from an ice storm in the future.
I saw old mates talking about their concerns about icing yesterday and the EMA had a meeting out of concern. But now it's going to be "ha! we overprepared for nothing."
I saw old mates talking about their concerns about icing yesterday and the EMA had a meeting out of concern. But now it's going to be "ha! we overprepared for nothing."