Misc General Banter Thread

[Brent]

If anyone is pinning their hopes on the GFS yeah I wish you good luck

Just from watching this storm out here. It has been completely trash and all over the place. Sound familiar?

 

[SD]

It kind of became obvious we were in trouble when the eps slowly kept losing heights in the west and playing around with the Baja too much. No matter what other ops and suites had when the eps is bodily making noticeable negative adjustments you have to lean that way. Obviously the gfs could score one here and the rest of the worlds models be wrong but I doubt it. This one sucks but at least it'll probably keep leaking north and reduce the ice storm imby

 

[TigerSnow]

Time will tell. The next 12-18 hours will show us what happens. Do we trend further north and lower the ice threat imby or do we go back further south? I tend to think we go a little further north but who knows.

 

[WFFaithful]

When we want it amped, it doesn't phase. When we want it flat, it amps.

 

[MSnowAtl]

When we want it amped, it doesn't phase. When we want it flat, it amps.

Story of our lives!

 

[GeorgiaGirl]

This will be much worse than the 2004 ice storm for you I think. Time will tell

Nah

Think you likely have to favor amped and too warm outside of traditional CAD land.

 

[billyweather]

Important runs today. Recon data hopefully gets ingested by 12Z

I believe they said it would be in the 00z runs tonight.

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

we’re going to see some biblical ice stuff modeled on the nam. Pure panic will ensue

 

[Snowflowxxl]

we’re going to see some biblical ice stuff modeled on the nam. Pure panic will ensue

Yep gonna be a doozy

 

[tempo47]

So is ATL clear of ice right now also or is there still a chance at this point? Sorry I know it’s probably been asked 20 times

 

[Snowflowxxl]

So is ATL clear of ice right now also or is there still a chance at this point? Sorry I know it’s probably been asked 20 times

Still a chance

 

[SD]

Thankfully we are putting that snowpack to the north the next storm will be ours

 

[Parker]

Thankfully we are putting that snowpack to the north the next storm will be ours

More like the gulf coast while we get pipe bursting cold.

 

[RBR71]

When they start going north it's over 99 out of 100, I got a better chance winning the lottery, back to back, then it coming back south.

 

[weatherfide]

I'm looking forward to that 62 degrees here on Sunday!

 

[Snowflowxxl]

Last years 1/10 storm trended north here and then came back south. Only time I’ve ever seen it happen. I was meting down like some are now

 

[weatherfide]

Still a chance

Very low chance because only the worst model on the planet is showing it (looking at you GFS).

 

[tempo47]

Next runs will have new data correct?

 

[xshare]

Very low chance because only the worst model on the planet is showing it (looking at you GFS).

? Both euro and ai show ZR for atlanta

 

[RSG]

Michael Clark is the new king until further notice. I wish I was wrong but he made every southern met look like an absolute idiot.

He's a wishcasting fool. I'm sorry. He had no way of knowing this piece of energy over MT was gonna appear and wreck this setup for us. He was wishcasting and got lucky. Which is smart I guess because if something can ruin it down south for us it will. So I guess he just was playing the odds.

 

[Snowflowxxl]

Very low chance because only the worst model on the planet is showing it (looking at you GFS).

The ICON had a huge ice storm. The euro still had some ice

 

[weatherfide]

? Both euro and ai show ZR for atlanta

Yes, for the northern burbs. UHI will keep it out of the city itself.

 

[Arcc]

Thankfully we are putting that snowpack to the north the next storm will be ours

People in Tampa are licking their chops.

 

[rburrel2]

So is ATL clear of ice right now also or is there still a chance at this point? Sorry I know it’s probably been asked 20 times

Atlanta is squarely in the crosshairs of a warning criteria ice storm.

 

[weatherfide]

The ICON had a huge ice storm. The euro still had some ice

Icon is the second worst model, though.

 

[Snowflowxxl]

Icon is the second worst model, though.

You are just making stuff up. Based on verification scores there are models much worse than the GFS and ICON.

I’d prefer to have the euro on our side, but it has whiffed bad before. NE blizzard a couple years ago is missed horribly

 

[HailCore]

Man I was hoping for a sleet storm here north of ATL and now I might be flirting with a cold rain?!?! There better be some better data on 12Z.

 

[tempo47]

I live near Athens so I’m closer to cad surely I get winter weather ….. COPE

 

[GaStorm]

Yes, for the northern burbs. UHI will keep it out of the city itself.

There is no way to know that right now. Plenty can change in the next day of runs.

 

[weatherfide]

You are just making stuff up. Based on verification scores there are models much worse than the GFS and ICON.

I’d prefer to have the euro on our side, but it has whiffed bad before. NE blizzard a couple years ago is missed horribly

Yes, but out of the five non ai models that you can get on pivotal, which ones have the best verification scores? It's usually Euro, Ukie. CMC, Icon and then GFS, right?

 

[chapelhillwx]

Yes, for the northern burbs. UHI will keep it out of the city itself.

UHI really applies more to radiational cooling at night than to daytime temperatures, especially with a cold air feed.

 

[xshare]

Yes, for the northern burbs. UHI will keep it out of the city itself.

I responded in the IMBY thread (where this belongs) with a map, but at least at 6z, the majority of atlanta was inside the ZR range

 

[SD]

Complete collapse like unc bball vs Kansas in the national championship game in 8 runs

 

[sackjalding]

Interested to read Glenn Burns’ update which he said he will post soon. Ella Dorsey is already keeping the alert up for ice in Atl this AM.

I’m not super worried about UHI in Atl. It’s been very cold IMBY the past week at night and I’m in south Buckhead. Gonna be close!

 

[MSnowAtl]

? Both euro and ai show ZR for atlanta

Yes ice to rain though I think.

 

[Drizzle Snizzle]

I'm hearing that a Winter Storm Watch may be issued for Atlanta later today. Why would they issue a Watch when it's going to rain ?

 

[MSnowAtl]

I'm hearing that a Winter Storm Watch may be issued for Atlanta later today. Why would they issue a Watch when it's going to rain ?

You got to chill out man it very fluid right now!

 

[weatherfide]

UHI really applies more to radiational cooling at night than to daytime temperatures, especially with a cold air feed.

It will be in the 50's Friday. I've driven through the Grady curve and it is always 5 degrees warmer unless under heavy cold air advection.

 

[chapelhillwx]

It will be in the 50's Friday. I've driven through the Grady curve and it is always 5 degrees warmer unless under heavy cold air advection.

okey dokey. if atl is geographically in the wedge this will not be an issue.

 

[weatherfide]

Yes, Atlanta north and east has ice risk. But the temps are marginal 31 or so, the rain is moderate, and the mid level temps are on fire. It's going to be hard for it to accumulate except on trees and metal railings and such.