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Misc General Banter Thread

xshare said:
Question for those of you who have been doing this for a while — what’s the shortest timeframe/lead time that a winter storm has appeared on the models and ended up verifying?

I mean going from basically nothing, nada for that date on any models (except maybe a f+20 inchesantasy ensemble member here and there or fantasy storm in the LR if you were to look far enough back), to suddenly a winter storm on the horizon and it actually happens?
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January 2000. Not much forecasted for RDU on the prior day or even into the evening 6pm local tv weather broadcast. By the 11pm news cast though everything had changed. Even Fishel our local met expert missed it. My location ended up with +20 inches
 
xshare said:
Question for those of you who have been doing this for a while — what’s the shortest timeframe/lead time that a winter storm has appeared on the models and ended up verifying?

I mean going from basically nothing, nada for that date on any models (except maybe a fantasy ensemble member here and there or fantasy storm in the LR if you were to look far enough back), to suddenly a winter storm on the horizon and it actually happens?
Click to expand...

For us in Bama we have had several in the last 15 years.

Christmas 2010 was one. While we all tracked the storm for days, we were "done" in Alabama and out of the game until literally Christmas morning when the HRRR suddenly decided to keep dropping the snow line south. Got 3-4" and a historic white Christmas .

Then you have The Snowjam 2014. We watched that for days as well and on the morning of, it looked like maybe a flurry at most. Some of us had our suspicions and suddenly boom, nuff said.

The gold standard though for my location at least is without a doubt December 2017. Three days away, wiff. Two days, maybe something. The day before the ensembles began to play with a slushy 2-3. Then late on the evening before the CMC decided to nuke the area with a huge swaft of 8-14" and the rest is history.
 
xshare said:
Question for those of you who have been doing this for a while — what’s the shortest timeframe/lead time that a winter storm has appeared on the models and ended up verifying?

I mean going from basically nothing, nada for that date on any models (except maybe a fantasy ensemble member here and there or fantasy storm in the LR if you were to look far enough back), to suddenly a winter storm on the horizon and it actually happens?
Click to expand...
I only started following the weather about a decade ago, so I can’t speak for January 2000 or 2010, but the most insane one was mid-January 2018. We were expected to see a dusting to an inch leading up to the event. Then once we got into the NAM range, every run consistently increased totals and I say close to a foot.

IMG_9252.png
 
xshare said:
Question for those of you who have been doing this for a while — what’s the shortest timeframe/lead time that a winter storm has appeared on the models and ended up verifying?

I mean going from basically nothing, nada for that date on any models (except maybe a fantasy ensemble member here and there or fantasy storm in the LR if you were to look far enough back), to suddenly a winter storm on the horizon and it actually happens?
Click to expand...
I’ve been doing this for twenty five years at this point. In my experience, the big ones bare their teeth early and remain fairly consistent. There are outliers but the biggest storms we’ve had around here for years have been slam dunks for days(March 2009, February 2004, February 2014, January 2010).
 
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