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Observations Fright Night Halloween Week Severe Obs

BirdManDoomW

BirdManDoomW

WilkesboroDude
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Given the big game up in Boone, the SPC already introducing a Marginal Risk 3 days out for severe, trick or treaters along the road, fall color leaves falling, etc. Post your rain totals, gusts, any mountains winter weather, temp swings, goblin sightings, severe weather and loss of fall color leaves here as all could occur.
 
Per SPC, no upgrade until a better handle of instability is realized if any. Strong damaging winds within a line is the current threat. C73B8E5B-161C-48F4-B348-3D0C0DB10B69.png
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Good thread birdman, if both NAMs are correct, which they have a tendency to overdo instability, it wouldn’t shock me to see a slight or even a enhanced
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And timing which keeps changing to what I think is for more severe now.
 
So, this means that we will have probably an Enhanced risk for severe weather?
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This was day 3 in the 2016 tornado outbreak
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This was day 2 in the 20160224 tornado outbreak
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And this was day 1 in the outbreak.
Seems to be they are slapping the lowest risk, only to be upgraded every day until day 1.
 
My analysis part 1. I think the NAM is growing increasingly severe for the central piedmont west into the foothills and mtns of NC and extreme north-western SC. Orange is noted for the heavy squall line but don’t be fooled as precip starts to favor Virginia over Raleigh area south. More on this with part 2 analysis. Purple is activity breaking out front that needs to be watched as it moves moves north-East. Note again not a due east movement which will severely hurt eastern NC’s rainfall department. Moreover, Saturation will occur in the NC mtns before even more rain and wind hits with the main line. I smell a flood threat (Watauga, Ashe, Allegheny) given the strong upslope shown in the yellow line. These areas could approach a foot of rain for October given recent rain events going over 4”. I’m worried High Wind Warnings will need to be stated for the ground being very saturated despite being in a drought* (Thursday update should show improvement however). Circled the GOM black as there is little to no disruption of moisture to stop what’s coming namely for western NC. 977822E8-643B-4E54-9D10-7936803B094B.jpeg
 
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My analysis part 2. Really wanna reiterate some flood threat for GSP and Blacksburg zones esp where they meet. Movement starts to tilt north instead of due East prolonging some flooding concerns along the Blue Ridge. Blue is circled for my greatest flood threat. Notice the line segment does not weaken any despite major upslope rains 12 hours prior. There appears to be some bowing in the line from Boone to Hickory that will need to be watched for gusts over 50mph on top of a wet ground. Isolated tornadoes can’t be ruled out but it’s largely unknown what the instability will look like for areas like Lincoln County NC or Iredell. I circled down East cause none of this will help bring the rains you need. 66E461D0-81BA-4FCD-A2F9-4A800C15C541.jpeg
 
BirdManDoomW said:
My analysis part 1. I think the NAM is growing increasingly severe for the central piedmont west into the foothills and mtns of NC and extreme north-western SC. Orange is noted for the heavy squall line but don’t be fooled as precip starts to favor Virginia over Raleigh area south. More on this with part 2 analysis. Purple is activity breaking out front that needs to be watched as it moves moves north-East. Note again not a due east movement which will severely hurt eastern NC’s rainfall department. Moreover, Saturation will occur in the NC mtns before even more rain and wind hits with the main line. I smell a flood thread (Watauga, Ashe, Allegheny) given the strong upslope shown in the yellow line. These areas could approach a foot of rain for October given recent rain events going over 4”. I’m worried High Wind Warnings will need to be stated for the ground being very saturated despite being in a drought* (Thursday update should show improvement however). Circled the GOM black as there is little to no disruption of moisture to stop what’s coming namely for western NC. View attachment 25069
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LR HRRR i think a lot of people across the southeast will have a chance for some severe weather. The rouge storms that the models are showing are a little worrying Screenshot_20191029-155939_Samsung Internet.jpgScreenshot_20191029-155950_Samsung Internet.jpgScreenshot_20191029-160046_Samsung Internet.jpg
 
Interesting feature on the NAM 3km, typical piedmont meso low, nice inflow notch into that line, could spawn a brief tornado as we’ve seen before in past setups, and have strong wind gusts 8A5CDC31-96FE-47D0-811B-E301EC139C7E.jpeg80961FED-16F4-445A-809E-59740DB00D64.jpeg
 
Feel free to post LIVE ASU broadcasts here during the game to see the weather. I will be on i77 if any rotation exists to chase from Yadkinville to Mooresville. Leaf season will largely be ended by this event IMO.
 
Tarheel1 said:
Ok!
My tornado index, or something like that, from B Rad, had me at 0
Think around CLT, it was one? On his FB post
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Yeah timing is better for CLT, his graph if I’m not mistaken had CLT at 1-3 STP, I don’t think much of a TOR threat, more of a straight line wind type setup
 
2 slight risks are out for western NC. For flooding.
 
If Nam is to be believed. The national weather service is really downplaying what could be a large scale severe weather outbreak of some kind


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LR HRRR looks nasty for individual supercells wether this verifies or not. Storms look to isolate themselves giving themselves a better chance to rotate. Idk if i think itll be a severe outbreak but i could see a tornado or two. HRRRSE_prec_radar_021.pngHRRRSE_prec_radar_029.pngHRRRSE_con_uphlysw_033.png
 
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