Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
Hope everyone gets in on at least some wintry action!
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Freezing Rain, Sleet, Snow, Rain...Kitchen Sink (12/15-16)
- Thread starter Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
- Start date
iGRXY
Member
A thread? The kiss of death has appeared!
FYI since this is a storm thread it will be moderated as such. Please do not take offense if your posts are moved or deleted.
Anyways, this is a storm I think that will do sleet at temps above 36 then snow till 32 then freezing rain as soon as the first lull hits with temps near 30 or below. All ptypes but the colder you get the less snow/sleet because dry air at the surface vanishes with warmer air aloft above the tree line. The Birdman Storm.
No this is the kiss of death, at least for us.
tennessee storm
Member
no one will be seeing any accumulating snow from this outside the mountain areas afraid... just not enough cold air even for the CAD region
iGRXY
Member
With the CAD deepening and looking like the high has gotten quite a bit stronger you could definitely see snow in the high elevations extending down into the far northern Piedmont. Think everyone Dow to highway 74 in NC will likely be sleet with some ZR mixed and everyone south of there into the central upstate would like be all ZR.
06z EPS members for hours 102-108. PS don’t look at member 25 ??
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Damn we’re still trending to more confluence and GL ridging ?! Keep doing that and that introduces a quick front end snow potential for the NC Piedmont 
Even the nam is doing the same in the LR with stronger confluence >>> better GL ridging and better CAD, gonna have a pants bursting run soon ?
Even the nam is doing the same in the LR with stronger confluence >>> better GL ridging and better CAD, gonna have a pants bursting run soon ?
GEFS as well, notice how our confluence keeps sinking south, and a weak ridge axis keeps getting better near the GLs, continue this trend and that strengthens your parent HP
Idk man not trying to be Debbie downer on snow but it's hard to find much evidence for snow in NC. Waa in the mid levels is probably going to be stout with the H85 and H7 flows with such a southerly component. I think the better hope for many is the models are underestimating the depth and intensity of the cold push in the sfc to 925 layer and there is more sleet. I could be wrong especially if we are seeing the models as usual being late on the precip arrival
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Realistically if you want snow in NC the better hope is more intense secondary cyclogenesis off of the coast farther south. This would help start stacking the sfc into the mid layers and veer the flow resulting in caa and the ptype changeovers moving toward the S and east. Unfortunately as modeled right now this is a classic ice storm
That's not a bad sounding at all. As we know the models often underestimate the intital fgen and upglide and are late on precip arrival. If we get one of those fingers of precip rolling in early it would certainly change things a little and maybe bring a little snow but it would also likely shift the freezing rain/sleet lines SE since it would lock in the CAD dome. This would likely keep the coastal trough at Bay since it would be bumping up against a deeper cold dense airmass and the coastal low farther east
Gotta like the 925 low being weaker and farther west and the wind barbs being more east. If we can get more NNE this would be a major sleet event
BHS1975
Member
Sleetmageddon coming up. I haven't seen CAD this strong modeled in a very long time and it's not done yet with trending stronger.
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I don’t care how many dislikes I get but I see promising trends for less ZR and more mixing esp for a large area (Winston-Statesville-Hickory). Honestly I’m watching for a thread the needle onset all snow if everything comes together for a large chunk of North Carolina. We can get the snow to come off the mountains if trends continue. However, keeping it all snow virtually has no chance with what I’m seeing.
As I mentioned yesterday, I find it suspect that this is entirely a snow -> ZR changeover, with little room for sleet. These things most always never verify that way. I would expect, especially if there are colder trends, this to be mostly sleet.
