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Pattern Freezing Ferocious February

For those of us in NC, don’t give up on winter yet. 06z GFS has a decent CAD setup for the western half of NC and isn’t that far off for RDU. The 0z CMC and Euro have the storm but tracks it north over the mid-atlantic. The 06z ICON shifted south as well FWIW.
 
Winter isn't over yet esp for the upper south, might have to deal w/ severe on the front end of this but there's a pretty clear window of opportunity showing up at the last possible minute as we get to the very end of February and into March as a Scandinavian high cuts off from the mean flow and retrogrades towards Greenland and eventually northern Canada to become a "west-based -NAO"

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269D4E25-EEC2-41FC-98A5-A8B4B3726259.png Latest total snowfall for the whole winter: from NGa weather: The haves and have nots! Ouch CAE
 
6F620C5D-4099-485E-8FC1-41021BB0B91F.png Small window for this Sunday! From 6z
 
whamby said:
still predicting some dippage so all hope is not lost, I suppose... figure early March to be at least in a 'colder' pattern.
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Don’t look for it
 
We need a couple of powerful LP areas to come across the south . Right now I think the cold air is up for grabs when the Polar vortex relaxes . I think North America looks most favorable, and probably the western half early, but a big storm in the southeast after the 24th could bring the cold air this way. Right now the mid lats around the world are fairly mild. the coldest air is in N canada into the polar region this side of the pole.
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Webberweather53 said:
Winter isn't over yet esp for the upper south, might have to deal w/ severe on the front end of this but there's a pretty clear window of opportunity showing up at the last possible minute as we get to the very end of February and into March as a Scandinavian high cuts off from the mean flow and retrogrades towards Greenland and eventually northern Canada to become a "west-based -NAO"

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This Greenland block is going to squash the SE US ridge, climatologically speaking as I noted a week or two ago, March is often more favorable relative to average to squeak out big winter storms here in NC during a La Nina going back even into the early-mid 20th century.
 
Webberweather53 said:
This Greenland block is going to squash the SE US ridge, climatologically speaking as I noted a week or two ago, March is often more favorable relative to average to squeak out big winter storms here in NC during a La Nina going back even into the early-mid 20th century.
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I personally think there will be some more cold later, maybe even a touch of wintery weather for some. After we accept and embrace the warm and its a shock to the system. I remember Easters being cold and the wind breaking my face off hunting easter eggs with my kids. 70's is a little too wierd but the propane for this old house is outrageous so I am torn. I would rather snow be the reason for delaying our house being built but right when they are ready for grading...we get these friggin monsoons!! Please no severe until we get out of this scarry creeky house. Yikes. Such a strange winter...
 
GaWx said:
1. Per this morning's MDA forecast for KATL of 54.7 for Feb. (7.5 warmer than normal or near the normal for March), that would be the 4th warmest Feb on record going back to 1879! They even have a shot at 2nd warmest because a 55.0 would put it in alone in 2nd place. The only one which is as of now appears somewhat safe is 2017's 56.1. So, thank goodness last Feb. was that warm or else we could now be seriously challenging for the warmest on record!
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In this morning's forecast from MDA, Feb at KATL has been warmed from yesterday's 54.7 to 55.2 (8 warmer than normal), which would be the 2nd warmest Feb going back to 1879 and cooler than only Feb of 2017's 56.1!
 
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