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Pattern February Discussion

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ForsythSnow said:
Looks like garbage tonight! Not even the DGEX has hope lol.
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Oh well! I tried...LOL


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Go out to dinner with some folks to do this planning thing on a project, eat good sushi, have a couple Japanese beers, get back, and we're still doom and gloom. Trying here to find a positive in all of this should-still-be-winter routine we're in (much less - what winter have we been in, frankly?), and well ... nothing jumps out except that high temps here, despite the "torch", never surpass 75º out to 384 on the 18Z. Guess it's good to have something positive to end a day on ... FWIW (though I'm still betting on a miracle of sorts!).
Enough pontificating ....
 
accu35 said:
So when are you expecting these changes to occur, giving how the GEFS looks better vrs Op run day7/10 on 18z?
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Hard to say for sure, the model may show something more realistic 5 days before the time frame, or at the last minute.

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NorthGAWinterWx said:
Here are my thoughts on the 18z GFS and what may occur.

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Thanks for the video. Very good discussion!

I've been forecasting for some time, not a long time though. Most of my knowledge,however, comes from research and studies of historical systems than experience. But I do caution whenever a forecaster says that x "should" happen. I'm sure you have more experience than myself in winter forecasting. But Models are based on physics, so anything it shows is physically able to happen. I'm just wondering if you could elaborate more on why you think that the low should be held back and separated more.

Also, what about that low that gets completely suppressed under the high out west? Do y'all think anything could come of that?


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Somebody just got NAM'd, I think!?
 
bouncycorn said:
Thanks for the video. Very good discussion!

I've been forecasting for some time, not a long time though. Most of my knowledge,however, comes from research and studies of historical systems than experience. But I do caution whenever a forecaster says that x "should" happen. I'm sure you have more experience than myself in winter forecasting. But Models are based on physics, so anything it shows is physically able to happen. I'm just wondering if you could elaborate more on why you think that the low should be held back and separated more.

Also, what about that low that gets completely suppressed under the high out west? Do y'all think anything could come of that?


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Yeah, I should cut back on saying that "it should happen" lol cause nothing is a guarantee in meteorology. The low that gets suppressed would be held back if that second system gets held back.

I think the second system may get held back because of the NW air flow behind the first system. I'm thinking that Arctic HP that I showed in the video will come down after the passage of the first system, helping to push that second system further south.

In my video, I said that the cold air start settling in here but it won't happen right away since the cold air lags behind the front. We could see that second system come in about the same time as the cold air does setting up the winter storm.

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Dear Lord, I pray for Oz GFS tonight, along with my weather weenies who are around there computers tonight
 
Just looked at the 12z EPS, that second system does get held back but it's a late bloomer, blooming over SW Atlantic with some spotty light precip over AL, GA and the Carolina's.

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