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Pattern February Discussion
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Storm5
Member
hahahah omgd this is so great
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whatalife
Moderator
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Hot Damn! Epic!
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Storm5
Member
yep it does , looks like a good rain makerI think this system has potential.
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The EPS has me like
Cad Wedge NC
Member
If the low center was 300 miles further southeast, but we all know that won't happen. This has been trending NW with each model run and it will not change unless we get some blocking. A 1026 high centered north of the Lakes will not get it done. Looks good if you're in Ohio.I think this system has potential.
Stormlover
Member
so it's all negative, all the time now? he's right, it's not far from bringing snow to many of us
2nd half of Feb will be rockin
Storm5
Member
it's called reality . good luck getting snow with the low plowing into eastern Tennessee. plus I'm speaking about that run VERBATIM . relax man we all want winter weather
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I like it! It's not negative at all! Sometimes the truth hurts!
Cad Wedge NC
Member
AO forecast to plunge..... PNA forecast to remain positive. If only the darn NAO would go negative, we would be in great shape.
MichaelJ
Member
Until it verifies it is not the truth, merely an opinion
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Thanks! Yeah, there are obviously some things I can work on and it's not perfect, but a few valuable points I've learned over the past few years in doing this and aworth brining up here, are that I think if more long range forecasters treated historical analogs like a computer model and produced forecasts that the public, weather enthusiasts, and researchers needed to hear instead of interjecting their own inherently biased, emotionally motivated forecasts, we wouldn't have nearly as many issues w/ seasonal forecasts. I meticulously tweaked and weighted my analog package to where it provided an adequate hindcast and properly initialized current atmospheric, oceanic conditions as well as external forcings which provided an operational analog composite. Then, I produced analog composite members w/ slight variations of this operational analog composite to detect the array of potential variability from the background state to derive uncertainty estimates and the spread in possible solutions for each mont. I merged those composites together, and then used an older, cooler base period (1895-2000) to slant the composites towards above normal temperatures to account for the recent spike in global temperatures and increased frequency in AN-well AN temperatures in the US and southeastern US. I also was fortunate that intraseasonal variability has been suppressed this year (thanks in large part due to the exceptional westerly QBO regime), my forecast likely would be more susceptible to large/egregious errors if rampant MJO activity had dominated the global tropics. I wasn't particularly impressed w/ the stratospheric warming event. Aside from the already unfavorable QBO/solar bgd, we turn cooler much less frequently following major SSWEs or displacements in neutral-NINA winters, El Nino SSWEs on the other hand tend to consistently produce amazing results especially here in the SE US (obviously coupling & juxtaposition to bgd ENSO helps a lot). I'm actually becoming a little concerned that I wasn't warm enough nationwide in February, although I will probably be fine in the southern US... I think my forecast as a whole for Feb will be okay, but it will be hard pressed to get BN temps down into the central Rockies, however, it's more feasible in the northern Rockies & Pacific northwest. I guess I shouldn't complain terribly much considering I made the forecast at the beginning of December.
Well Eric, at least you didn't go "cold and snowy" because you're a weenie or money grabber. Doesn't matter exactly how much you were off on warmth, you had the general idea that looks to be coming true.
And guys, I know seeing a prolonged period of "blue and green" on temp anomaly maps is good to see, but it isn't required to get a Winter storm. The month can be above average, and still produce a Wintry event. I have to go back and research more into the year, but in 1973 we were close to 80F here in CAE before the infamous snowstorm (biggest on modern record here), and then a few days later we were back to the 70s.
And guys, I know seeing a prolonged period of "blue and green" on temp anomaly maps is good to see, but it isn't required to get a Winter storm. The month can be above average, and still produce a Wintry event. I have to go back and research more into the year, but in 1973 we were close to 80F here in CAE before the infamous snowstorm (biggest on modern record here), and then a few days later we were back to the 70s.
You are right. This month will end up around 8 degrees above normal and I saw 2-3" of snow, so a cold month is not necessary. Feb 2015 was 7 below normal and I had no snow at all.
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