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Pattern February Discussion part 3. Don's Winter Storm Hunt

Storm5 said:
Yeah along the east coast . That's not a SE winter storm setup although it could work for you late. and of course met would get a foot . And as you pointed out and I said above. NO COLD SOURCE. not a threat



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If I had as many hurricanes as the CMC sent me this year and as much snow as you and Shane think I get I'd have to build a wall to keep every weather weenie within 500 miles out. Lol y'all have cursed me!!
 
Shawn said:
Yeah, it's not going to be Wintry for most. Let go. I promise, it will not hurt as bad if you just let go now.
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Folks,
Check out the 12Z Euro day 10. There is -30 to -40 F air in NW Canada with a strong ridge just to the west of there propelling it SEward. I'll always take that heading into the merry month of March.
 
Rain in the mid 40s. Yay. I guess if you're gonna rain, you might as well rain cold!
 
going to be interesting to see what the eps looks like days 8-15 . The going theme is to pump the epo ridge .

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The 12Z EPS doesn't look as good to me for cold potential as the 0Z EPS did as March approaches. Stay tuned for the next run.
 
When maps like that, so opposite, show up ... bewilderment or wonder ... can't decide the correct reaction. (? ) Maybe I should have stayed at a Holiday Inn Express last night.
The really odd thing is that we're supposed be 39º tonight and yesterday it was called as 45º - which causes yours truly doubt about any model or forecast right now.
I'd love to depose whomever is in charge of programming and get to the bottom of this ... :cool:
 
pcbjr said:
When maps like that, so opposite, show up ... bewilderment or wonder ... can't decide the correct reaction. (? ) Maybe I should have stayed at a Holiday Inn Express last night.
The really odd thing is that we're supposed be 39º tonight and yesterday it was called as 45º - which causes yours truly doubt about any model or forecast right now.
I'd love to depose whomever is in charge of programming and get to the bottom of this ... :cool:
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Phil,
My temporary time in Gainesvile taught me one thing that I'll never forget and that also gave me my fondest memory: Gainesville, FL, is the radiation capital of the SE! I'd put them right up against most any major SE city in any radiation cooling contest. On a sunny day with low dewpoints and light winds, I just know that the temperatures will be taking a nosedive there starting in the last hour before sunset. I took many an evening walk last winter/spring and loved how it cooled so much on days like these.

At 4 PM Gainesville was a sunny and beautiful 67 with a dewpoint of 27 along with light westerly winds. It wouldn't shock me if they went down to 32 tonight! Regardless expect a beautiful frost in the morning. Get ready for the big plunge!
 
By the look of both the GFS and Euro, it looks like the EPO will begin to cooperate, so maybe we can have a chance again if we can get a high over Alaska for some time.
malak05 said:
Hmm... at hour 216 18z GFS looks similar to 06z GFS-Para
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Maybe a weenie run coming. Let's see.
EDIT: Nope, low goes north.
 
GaWx said:
Eric,
Please translate what your message is from this map for the less informed like myself. Thank you!
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This map from the JMA shows OLR overlaid w/ 200hpa velocity potential vectors and anomalies, areas in dark magenta w/ converging vectors are indicative of large-scale upper level convergence and vis versa in regions w/ divergent 200 hpa VP vectors and negative velocity potential
 
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