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Pattern February Discussion part 3. Don's Winter Storm Hunt

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Lol, SD, I used to play that game long ago. Late this month could be our best chance all winter to see something good.
 
Checking out the MJO, the GFS OP puts it back in phase 8 late month while the GEFS puts it in a weak phase 7 but it has it pointing towards back at phase 8 late month. With the trends I've been seeing on the MJO, I think late month will be on a weak phase 8 (possibly to a moderate phase 8) to a weak phase 7. After the system of the 24th-25th, that's when we'll see a different track of systems. We'll start to see more systems coming along in the southern stream along the subtropical jet. As I mentioned last week (I believe it was last week) that we could see more overrunning events because of the moist subtropical jet. This could mean, good moist wet snow or even sleet/ZR events as the cold layer gets underneath the subtropical jet. I'm not saying that's what's set in stone, no, I'm saying that's a possibility.
 
I would think by late February chances for freezing rain go way down give climo . I bet larry has some zr stats for late February

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March 1980 comes to mind as an event that had sleet in some areas (my dad's senior year journal said that they were driving some family home from the airport and they started hearing ice pellets clang off the car in early March), but that is just one event and I'm not sure how temps looked in months beforehand. Also not sure it was all that much sleet.

EDIT: There was also most likely another widespread winter storm earlier in that winter.
 
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Here are some of the top winter events for ATL during this time period.

03/02/1980 - 2.7" SNW
03/02/1942 - 3.7" SNW
02/26/1952 - 3.9" SNW
03/01/2009 (which we remember this one) 4.2" SNW
I'm sure Larry and Webber will have more reports.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Ugh, for the umpteenth time I can virtually guarantee you that the MJO is not going back into phase 8 at the end of the month... Stop looking at the GEFS. It's complete garbage w/ western hemisphere MJO forecasts
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How does the EPS look down the road? Also, based on what I have read here the MJO isn't having much of an effect, so why worry that much about it? I would just watch for storm signals since the pattern and teleconnections have failed us it seems.
 
Webber, even if it is in phase 1, this still means cold along the east, except maybe for southern AL, GA, most of FL, southern SC and NC. I'm looking for trends on the MJO and on the models, not looking for things set in stone right now cause it will change.
 
SnowHusky said:
Here are some of the top winter events for ATL during this time period.

03/02/1980 - 2.7" SNW
03/02/1942 - 3.7" SNW
02/26/1952 - 3.9" SNW
03/01/2009 (which we remember this one) 4.2" SNW
I'm sure Larry and Webber will have more reports.
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So 1 good snow event in ATL in that time period in the last 35 years. Not a good track record.
 
SoutheastRidge said:
So 1 good snow event in ATL in that time period in the last 35 years. Not a good track record.
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I'm not counting just that one, I'm counting the ones in early March too cause their not far away obviously from late month from Feb. Also, if there will be a winter event, the timing won't be right on the 27th. Timing will change, if there will be a winter event, it may come it eariler or later. But based from history, winter events can happen in early March.
 
SnowHusky said:
Webber, even if it is in phase 1, this still means cold along the east, except maybe for southern AL, GA, most of FL, southern SC and NC. I'm looking for trends on the MJO and on the models, not looking for things set in stone right now cause it will change.
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Somewhat depends on what time period you are looking at (JFM or FMA) - for me, I prefer the composite with the month in question in the middle. However - remember - those are just composites, are not a forecast, and there is sooo much more that goes into a weather pattern than a single index or an index composite (as this year has aptly demonstrated, and continues to) ;)

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That's true too Phil, you also have to factor in the teleconnections. Based from what we're looking at in the 14 day outlook, the PNA is showing neutral, NAO is showing slightly positive to slightly negative, the AO is showing pretty much neutral. Based off of that, right now during that time period, this means that it won't be severely warm or cold. It means that some places will be experiencing slightly below or near normal and some much below normal. If I pick on of those phases, I'd go with phase 1 with the composites and with the significance, I'd go with phase 8 of the JFM. What we're seeing now will change. It may end up colder, warmer or some where in between.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Ugh, for the umpteenth time I can virtually guarantee you that the MJO is not going back into phase 8 at the end of the month... Stop looking at the GEFS. It's complete garbage w/ western hemisphere MJO forecasts
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For a second I thought my dad had joined this forum and stole your identity but then realized he don't know jack about the western hemi MJO.... Lol. Just razzing you man, good stuff as always!
 
pcbjr said:
Somewhat depends on what time period you are looking at (JFM or FMA) - for me, I prefer the composite with the month in question in the middle. However - remember - those are just composites, are not a forecast, and there is sooo much more that goes into a weather pattern than a single index or an index composite (as this year has aptly demonstrated, and continues to) ;)

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I believe that we here in the southeast continue to defy all logic with winter weather in recent memory...
 
pcbjr said:
Somewhat depends on what time period you are looking at (JFM or FMA) - for me, I prefer the composite with the month in question in the middle. However - remember - those are just composites, are not a forecast, and there is sooo much more that goes into a weather pattern than a single index or an index composite (as this year has aptly demonstrated, and continues to) ;)

combined_image_1.png
combined_image.png
Click to expand...

Exactly, also note how insignificant the negative temperature anomalies are in phase one in FMA, phase 2 oth is a different story, we'll definitely have to keep an eye out for when the MJO moves here because recent research by Roundy and others have noted an uptick in violent tornado outbreaks in the spring during MJO phase 2 (which is largely tied to its modulation of the ET rossby wave train creating a favorable planetary wave configuration for severe wx)
 
Webberweather53 said:
Exactly, also note how insignificant the negative temperature anomalies are in phase one in FMA, phase 2 oth is a different story, we'll definitely have to keep an eye out for when the MJO moves here because recent research by Roundy and others have noted an uptick in violent tornado outbreaks in the spring during MJO phase 2 (which is largely tied to its modulation of the ET rossby wave train creating a favorable planetary wave configuration for severe wx)
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Thanks, Webb! You added a bit of sunshine to a cloudy, windy day!
Best! Phil
 
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If Tennessee is frigid and north Florida is blowtorch, it could get interesting somewhere in between.


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ATLwxfan said:
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If Tennessee is frigid and north Florida is blowtorch, it could get interesting somewhere in between.


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it usually is interesting in a place or two between here and there - and i'm not referring to weather, either ... :D
 
Rain Cold said:
I have heard that the UK does a fairly good job with the MJO compared to a lot of the other models.
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Yeah, the GEFS is among, if not the worst ensemble package for MJO forecasts outside the western Pacific and Maritime Continent when it's often pretty obvious that the MJO is going to enter the western hemisphere anyway. The canonical fast and dampening biases I noted a week or so ago in nearly all model suites have also held up here as well. I would anticipate this MJO pulse to enter the Indian Ocean near the very end of February and 1st week of March which does give us at least a brief window of opportunity for something wintry while our climatology is still somewhat respectable.
 
There are definitely a lot of good winter storms which produced at least 5-6"+ of snow across a sizable portion of east-central NC that come to mind near the end of February and beginning of March...
February 26-27 2004
March 1-3 1980
March 1-3 1978
February 28-March 2 1969
February 26-28 1963
March 2-4 1942
February 27-28 1937
March 1-3 1927
February 27-28 1924
 
It's really hard to believe another El Nino is attempting to legitimately emerge after one of the longest and strongest events of the past few centuries just wrapped up a little less than a year ago. If another El Nino successfully develops, I can imagine global temperatures will spike yet again. It's amazing to see how warm the global SSTAs are at the moment and another El Nino would only add insult to a semi-permanent injury...
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There's no precedent for another El Nino developing immediately after an exceptionally large event (within 2 years) in the observational record that goes back to the mid 19th century. Looking at Quinn's ENSO reconstruction, there may have been another El Nino immediately after the super NINO in 1828. Other than that, I don't see any other legitimate instances of this occurring in at least the last 500 years, which certainly bolsters the argument that a significant proportion of the observed behavior in natural phenomena such as ENSO has a non-negligible and potentially large anthropogenic component via encouraging more rapid recovery of the West Pacific Warm Pool...

Here's the 7 day SST anomaly change, yea thanks largely to the MJO, we've seen a huge increase in the central Pacific SSTAs
cdas-sflux_ssta7diff_global_1.png
 
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