Wintry February 19-21, 2020 Winter Storm

[superjames1992]

RDU received 2.5" of snow with .47" of QPF. That close to 1:5 ratios (I'm sure it was lower for folks south of there). If it had been 1:10 (normal) ratios we would have seen 5-7" readings across the Triangle. But not complaining. Glad for what I got.

Sounds like QPF forecasts were pretty in line with what happened, then. At go time, the only one that was obscenely off was yesterday’s 12z RGEM, she spit our a ridiculous 1” QPF for RDU.

I think places like GSO may have gotten a little more liquid equivalent than forecasted.

 

[Webberweather53]

RDU received 2.5" of snow with .47" of QPF. That close to 1:5 ratios (I'm sure it was lower for folks south of there). If it had been 1:10 (normal) ratios we would have seen 5-7" readings across the Triangle. But not complaining. Glad for what I got.

Snow liquid ratios here were abysmal, 0.15" QPF fell as snow yesterday in Fayetteville after the changeover to snow, and we picked up just over 0.5" of snow, yielding about 4:1 SLRs here (hardly better than pure sleet). Even a semi-normal event would have yielded at least 1" here. Ugh

 

[Shaggy]

Snow liquid ratios here were abysmal, 0.15" QPF fell as snow yesterday in Fayetteville after the changeover to snow, and we picked up just over 0.5" of snow, yielding about 4:1 SLRs here (hardly better than pure sleet). Even a semi-normal event would have yielded at least 1" here. Ugh

I went through the spotter training in January and did everything I could to keep an accurate ongoing measurement but it was nearly impossible. The rate of melt and compaction was absurd.

2 oddities of the storm had to be heavy sleet at 46 degrees and the horrible ratios.

 

[KyloG]

Sounds like QPF forecasts were pretty in line with what happened, then. At go time, the only one that was obscenely off was yesterday’s 12z RGEM, she spit our a ridiculous 1” QPF for RDU.

I think places like GSO may have gotten a little more liquid equivalent than forecasted.

Euro/EPS was pretty good at showing right around 0.5" QPF. Hard to beat that combo. 5/1 ratios sounds reasonable.

 

[Webberweather53]

I went through the spotter training in January and did everything I could to keep an accurate ongoing measurement but it was nearly impossible. The rate of melt and compaction was absurd.

2 oddities of the storm had to be heavy sleet at 46 degrees and the horrible ratios.

Yeah, the ratios were terrible, like much worse than I thought they'd be here. We definitely had the moisture and the precip type, I think warm ground played a role but having surface temps just above freezing and rain before hand (which increased the thermal capacity of the ground when snow fell on it) really hurt us. The one thing we had going for us was that most of the snow fell after dark here. If we had respectable air & ground temps and actually started out as snow, I think my forecast would have verified.

 

[Webberweather53]

Yeah, the ratios were terrible, like much worse than I thought they'd be here. We definitely had the moisture and the precip type, I think warm ground played a role but having surface temps just above freezing and rain before hand (which increased the thermal capacity of the ground when snow fell on it) really hurt us. The one thing we had going for us was that most of the snow fell after dark here. If we had respectable air & ground temps and actually started out as snow, I think my forecast would have verified.

Ground temps weren't everything but they definitely didn't help, when temps fell below freezing here, about half the snow that fell melted before sunrise (a dusting over several hours).

 

[tramadoc]

NWS Wakefield early obs.

NWSChat - NOAA's National Weather Service

nwschat.weather.gov

 

[Ilovesnow28]

Oh cool!! I know that we had more when I went to bed. Look like it compacted pretty good here at my place. I’m really glad you got to see a good snowfall. The plus is the roads are clear after 4”!! When are planning on heading out?

I'll be heading back tomorrow afternoon... Yeah I'm glad I got a chance to see a snowstorm again it was definitely worth it and blessed

 

[superjames1992]

Yeah, the ratios were terrible, like much worse than I thought they'd be here. We definitely had the moisture and the precip type, I think warm ground played a role but having surface temps just above freezing and rain before hand (which increased the thermal capacity of the ground when snow fell on it) really hurt us. The one thing we had going for us was that most of the snow fell after dark here. If we had respectable air & ground temps and actually started out as snow, I think my forecast would have verified.

Just imagine how bad it would be if this snow fell from like 10 AM - 2 PM. We'd be lucky to have any snow left by nightfall.

 

[CyclonicFury]

My final accumulation total was around 3.5" IMBY. My backyard always seems to have localized higher accumulations than surrounding areas.

 

[smast16]

Yeah, the ratios were terrible, like much worse than I thought they'd be here. We definitely had the moisture and the precip type, I think warm ground played a role but having surface temps just above freezing and rain before hand (which increased the thermal capacity of the ground when snow fell on it) really hurt us. The one thing we had going for us was that most of the snow fell after dark here. If we had respectable air & ground temps and actually started out as snow, I think my forecast would have verified.

Interesting thing of note for here was it never rained at onset. All the rain was virga and when it finally saturated enough to make it all the way down it was already falling as snow. I kept watching the paver stones out the front window for signs of them getting wet, but nothing. Then I looked and it was flurrying.

 

[Brick Tamland]

Yeah, the ratios were terrible, like much worse than I thought they'd be here. We definitely had the moisture and the precip type, I think warm ground played a role but having surface temps just above freezing and rain before hand (which increased the thermal capacity of the ground when snow fell on it) really hurt us. The one thing we had going for us was that most of the snow fell after dark here. If we had respectable air & ground temps and actually started out as snow, I think my forecast would have verified.

Snow has to be the hardest type of weather to predict for NC. It seems there are just too many factors that affect things like the ratios, rates, warm nose, ground temps, etc. It seems the models have a hard time getting it right here compared to other weather events like severe storms or just plain rain.

 

[BirdManDoomW]

Surry County, Pilot MTN.

 

[BirdManDoomW]

Had a lot of negative comments and reactions for saying western NC would see the most snow. Well if Beech had 4.5” I’m sure someone higher up closer to TN had over 6”.

 

[superjames1992]

Snow has to be the hardest type of weather to predict for NC. It seems there are just too many factors that affect things like the ratios, rates, warm nose, ground temps, etc. It seems the models have a hard time getting it right here compared to other weather events like severe storms or just plain rain.

Part of it, too, is that rainfall forecasts bust all the time and no one really cares. No one cares if they get 0.5" of rain instead of 1". But that's the difference between 5" and 10" of snow (ignorantly assuming 10:1 ratios, which we often don't get), potentially, which is a bigger deal.

 

[superjames1992]

Had a lot of negative comments and reactions for saying western NC would see the most snow. Well if Beech had 4.5” I’m sure someone higher up closer to TN had over 6”.

I don't think anyone is particularly surprised that the higher elevations in the mountains cleaned up. They almost always do in nearly every setup.

 

[SD]

Part of it, too, is that rainfall forecasts bust all the time and no one really cares. No one cares if they get 0.5" of rain instead of 1". But that's the difference between 5" and 10" of snow (ignorantly assuming 10:1 ratios, which we often don't get), potentially, which is a bigger deal.

Which one of these is not like the others

 

[Shaggy]

Very photogenic storm. Its like the snow stuck to every limb of the tree making these tree flower looking things. Really cool to see.

 

[Shaggy]

Some more pics

 

[WxBlue]

Here's NOHRSC snowfall analysis for yesterday's event.