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Pattern February 11-13 2025

packfan98 said:
Not exactly. North of I-40 does well on the backend.
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Love the west to east orientation of the rn/sn line. Selfishly of course, but even this far east has done well when things line up like that. Maybe the cold push will verify slightly better to push that further south. I'd love to steal this from @Ross šŸ˜
 
Canadian and gfs are pretty close to each other what ever that's worth...
At least there's a signal and an outside chance! I can't ever remember a solid cad signal showing up past 5 days without a solid -nao. So there's a lot to be worked out if this thing is gonna do the cad thing or not and where it sets up. Then comes the timing.
 
KyloG said:
can we screw this up

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IK Its a totally seperate setup, but the last "event" at this range was pretty locked on beaches "not LA/AL/FL" But the jumps south continued for days, I get the SER will only allow so much but yea, The WPC at this range had us as well and they had to move south ? Only issue is, to get the big phased bombs its gotta be jacked some correct ? Big Phase we will sacrafice our Below 85 crew ? or am i off base ? Weaker equalls south , Stronger NW. Ive been fully Public with my love of a good mixed system that Miller B gives. Front end thump 3-5" / 1" Sleet / 1/4" or so of ICE are the best.
 
Both the GFS and the CMC have a two wave solution now, with the 2nd wave being colder/further south with better wedging. I'm not buying the two wave idea though. Guessing we get one main event instead.

Either way, gigantic jumps in the 5-6 day range on the both the CMC/GFS with respect to how the pacific ridge is handled that eventually leads to a further south storm track for us, which is more in line with the Euro/Euro AI/ICON.

Lots of details left to be ironed out still though.
 
rburrel2 said:
Both the GFS and the CMC have a two wave solution now, with the 2nd wave being colder/further south with better wedging. I'm not buying the two wave idea though. Guessing we get one main event instead.
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Feb 2014 broke into 2 events after having a huge monster to begin with. Not saying its similar but it had that initial event on Monday that skirted southern portions then the hammer came Weds eve
 
WolfpackHomer91 said:
Feb 2014 broke into 2 events after having a huge monster to begin with. Not saying its similar but it had that initial event on Monday that skirted southern portions then the hammer came Weds eve
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Yea it did and that's one of the very rare times we actually got something like that. It seems like the models always want to spit out multiple wave solutions for every storm we get though, and 9 out of 10 times it winds up being one.
 
I'd really like to see the Euro, EPS continue to trend colder, and the AIFS jump back colder. EPS was trending nicely south, but AIFS has been trending warmer. Hopefully that stops at 12Z.
 
The jackpot zone of this system will have some huge totals thatā€™s forsure with such a long duration system
 
Cyber attack from other Globals trying to take over top spot lol. It will be back at 0Z. This happened one cycle with the last storm. It was tardy, late rolling out and spit out some crazy stuff
 
rburrel2 said:
Call me a weenie... but I think that the 12z Euro has some weird initialization/computer issues going on. look at this map??? Something isn't right over the Rockies and great plains... the surface pressure map is screwed up too.

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No youā€™re exactly right
 
The 00z and 06z runs like similar over the rockies, so I dunno, Maybe it's working fine. haha... but the delay might mean something with why it's spit out something so different, who knows.
 
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