packfan98
Moderator
Low pressure is stronger at hr15. Let’s see where it goes.
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Bigedd09
Member
Please no big thunderstorms in the gulf
interestedclimatist
Member
Honestly, I think the NWS should upgrade the wake and Johnston to warnings just to be safe. An inch or two of sleet then snow will catch people off guard…
If only the NAM were to verify for my neck of the woods we would do okay. But it is pretty much the only model that looks decent for us.
They’ll get upgraded soon with the caveat “while this technically doesn’t reach warning grade criteria we believe the travel impacts warrant an upgrade”
Bigedd09
Member
NAM definitely looks weaker with precip through hour 21
interestedclimatist
Member
I think they are playing it a little safe too…
The 2-4" didn't really move did it?
Cary_Snow95
Member
Don’t love those storms in the gulf lol
Avalanche
Member
Don’t know if it means anything but precip in Midwest seems a tad further north than modeled
Highest impact in quite a while. I’ll be shocked if they don’t pull the string on it given the risks if they don’t.
agreed, but forcing in norther stream looks a little better, wonder if it leads to better coastal response
Warm nose all the way near GSO this run lol.
Looks like it at hr 27.
Triplephase93
Member
Got some convection developing in the Gulf of America it appears
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packfan98
Moderator
Really dries out at hr 30 compared to 12z. Yuck! 
Nam 3km taking hours to saturate this… okay buddy 
Definitely warning material for Northern Miss and Alabama. Thru 24 so not done for the eastern folks.
WolfpackHomer91
Member
Roughly Mooresville at this would be sleet correct ?
3km looks much different 
Six Mile Wx
Member
Nam looses the cold at 925s.
Brandon10
Member
Wow....warm nose squashed under a heavy band in ENC this run
WxBlue
Meteorologist
I have a bad feeling about mid-level warming. The NAM is usually pretty good with this stuff. Couple that with the moisture-robbing convection going on, and things are looking a little dicey.
Northeast NC up through SE VA is the consistent place to be by most guidance if you want the highest snows.
I have a bad feeling that Raleigh back to Burlington and Asheboro may be looking at a sleetfest for a lot of the event.
And I would probably never look at the HRRRrr if it wasn't posted on here.
Northeast NC up through SE VA is the consistent place to be by most guidance if you want the highest snows.
I have a bad feeling that Raleigh back to Burlington and Asheboro may be looking at a sleetfest for a lot of the event.
And I would probably never look at the HRRRrr if it wasn't posted on here.
I just don’t get the lack of saturation and why takes so long on the 3km. The last setup, we did have a big dry layer, a massive one, but this isn’t a big one at all. Takes 3-4 hours to saturate this as well which seems off 
Heavy banding could make the difference for borderline places to see a bit more snow, this shows it well
Mahomeless
Member
I think dynamic cooling is going to be the only hope for people outside of the mountains. The NAM is screaming mid level warmth, and at this range, its the best at depicting this. Should know more by tonight's 00z, but if its still there, there is trouble.
interestedclimatist
Member
I don’t hate these runs, a snow sleet mix would be fun tbh
I’m at the gym so I can’t pull good stuff rn but NAM3 did this with a couple prior runs. Suddenly flips a chunk of borderline places to snow and I think that could be a sign of banding crashing that warm nose locally
Yeah...1-2" of snow/sleet across central/southern Wake and make 2-3" across northern Wake makes sense.
WolfpackHomer91
Member
yea this is gonna bring in that double edged sword alot were upset at some of us for ...yea were bringing in more qpf but there will be a price to be paid somehow. Still bring the WAA and the QPF and lets get what we get with temps around 27-29
Definitely a little bit of a stepback from the weenie 12z, although realistically with that depiction a lot of us would be sleeting a ton, not that we don't have issues with the 18z NAMs, too. GFS continues to be my favorite model, not that it's realistic, LOL.
Nam 3km probably about to nuke someone with the ULL
Man that dry slot on 3k nam sucks
NCSNOW
Member
Ride the SREF, GFS,GEFS to the finish line, so long as all 3 stay in lock step agreement on qpf.
Ride the 3k Nam on your thermals.
Ride the 3k Nam on your thermals.
I hope you’re right because the HRRR has been very consistent on that since last night
interestedclimatist
Member
Classes cancelled at NC State tomorrow LETS GOOO
Well nc state just cancelled all day tomorrow. I doubt we go Thursday and if the ULL keeps things fairly cloudy and flurries-y we may get Friday too.
That ULL is pretty intriguing. Somebody that barely misses tomorrow’s best in CNC may get a nice lil surprise
That ULL is pretty intriguing. Somebody that barely misses tomorrow’s best in CNC may get a nice lil surprise
NCSNOW
Member
As long as they are shaped like a funnel opening, you don't have to worry about being robbed. its actually a good sign. healthy for sending more juice up our way.