interestedclimatist
Member
Really good trends this morning, it’s time to start getting excited because we are getting closer
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RDUHeatIsland
Member
Yeah I bet the mix line sets up around the airport, it always seems to. Unfortunately that puts me right on the edge. Gotta smell the sleet to get the feet right
Brandon10
Member
GRAF now with the ice line up to 64 so most modeling is now fairly in agreement from there north will be sweet. South will be icy mess.
CNCsnwfan1210
Member
I’m even excited about the clipper behind the main system on Thursday, man what a time to be alive to see some flakes if things hold
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Makeitsnow
Member
Watching for the possibility of at least snow falling here in Gainesville tomorrow. Surface temps.are a problem but if a changeover occurs I'd imagine 33/34 and light accumulations are possible for a couple of hours . It really depends on if there is enough precip to max evap cooling in the low levels. It's borderline right now but even a small increase would matter. It's so close it could go either way. Interesting the gfs is pretty far south with the changeover.
I think every 12z model I have seen has ticked things a little better. GFS has been rock solid for a day. I want to believe.
Would definitely be worried about mixing more if I was in Wake, should be better in that regard up here but also wouldn't be surprised if we ping. Likely will be less precip up here, though, so it's a balance.
Would definitely be worried about mixing more if I was in Wake, should be better in that regard up here but also wouldn't be surprised if we ping. Likely will be less precip up here, though, so it's a balance.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
I like a general 2-4" (for now) back over the Triad area with a decently good cut-off right over the I-77 corridor/just west of INT.
Charlotte & the SW Piedmont is extremely tricky, only superseded by the forecast over Raleigh & the north-central coastal plain. Not only are there still warm nose concerns there, but also coastal low type systems have a notorious reputation for dry slotting this part of the state. Oth, there's some decent CAD/overrunning type forcing in place here, so I can see how that may override some of these less favorable aspects w/ a traditional coastal cyclone setup. A general 1-2" with more possible NE of Charlotte is my best guess for now.
chapelhillwx
Member
GFS getting some mood flakes into Atlanta and points NW.
WxBlue
Meteorologist
Sadly, we (in Wendell) might be lumped in with Garner and FV here in Wake County. Only if we're making a bit more money so we can live in Wake Forest... but then again, my wife and I've always talked about settling in Haywood County of western North Carolina.
That’s very to what happened on 12/26/2010 over the I-85 corridor in NC. The heavy snow had fallen in the overnight hours but as the coastal was dumping on ENC, we were seeing just a steady light snow that was very fluffy and added another inch or two
rburrel2
Member
GFS trending towards the Rgem/Ukmet with the lee-side snow showers over the western upstate.(GFS goes on to hammer Central NC too... I'm just showing this specifically for the Western Upstate.
rburrel2
Member
3km NAM also rapidly shifting to a rgem/ukmet like scenario with the lee-side stuff over the upstate.
The global Canadian looks like it had a similar shift at 12z (no surprise). RDU goes from 0.29" to 0.39" with Raleigh-proper getting into the 0.5" contour a bit. Still a little on the drier side of guidance, though.
SimeonNC
Member
The fact that the nearly entire state of NC seems to be in for a NW flow event Thursday is kinda exciting to me lol
ForsythSnow
Moderator
That band shooting into the ATL area looks interesting
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Yes exactly. In these type of advancing warm advection setups w/ marginal temperatures aloft, there's an area of enhanced low to mid-level frontogenesis just onto the cold side of the warm nose aloft. I expect to see a primary band of moderate to heavy snow to setup here just onto the cold side of the snow/sleet line & warm nose aloft.
This warm advection juxtaposed against melting snow at the leading edge of the warm nose tightens the horizontal temperature gradient near the snow-sleet line, leading to enhanced frontogenesis. This then forces a stronger (vertical) secondary circulation that leads to heavier snowfall rates just onto the cold side of the warm nose. This is what really creates those big snowfall gradients you see on the models here.
We saw this exact thing happen in Atlanta earlier this year & we've seen it countless times over the years, with Dec 2018 being a good recent example of a case that actually ended up favorably for Raleigh.
I will say, even though I like the idea of this being primarily sleet in say central Wake County and points south, there's no guarantee that happens & if it stays barely cold enough aloft, this storm would certainly bust high in a big way. Near impossible forecast.
weather bubba
Member
You are right about that if past history and climatology is repeated. I'm hopeful that the snow line moves south in Wake County with this storm but I am now thinking that McCuller's will receive primarily sleet based on recent trends. Living in the ghetto section of Wake County has its disadvantages when it comes to winter weather. It will make for some great sledding but the snowball fights might be a little risky.
The stuff Thursday morning still in my opinion has a shot at dropping a coating to an inch as it spreads east. 
Bigedd09
Member
How reliable is the RAP at this range? cause it was a disaster for the CLT area
It’s not reliable until basically the day of, it’s good at picking up trends the day of as the event is occuring
WolfpackHomer91
Member
Ik you guys probably already know, but as he said NE of CLT… the Roxboro of CLT metro , Western Rowan County. I lived there for 7yrs 2013 - 2020… (Mt Ulla ish) that area can score in so many ways it seems I always came out on top over there. But yea if anyone in CLt gonna overperform its be Rowan County
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party pooper.
wow
Member
Part of the reason I moved to Mt Ulla ! Always overperforming. Worked well for the Dec clipper too.
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ForsythSnow
Moderator
In all question, while a lot of this storm focus is on NC, I'd like to ask about N GA and the trends/ptypes over this way. I'd be curious if this overperforms or has potential to again hit the N metro with a surprise. The thermals from what I can tell keep getting colder and with some QPF increase rates may be enough to cool the column.
belowfreezing
Member
Mt. Ulla near West Rowan High School. I just want my one inch of snow in Cleveland County... I hope. Thanks for your input on this forum Wow!
12z GEFS with a substantial shift west with precip (12z vs. 06z below):
If we can just get the dry slot in NC up into VA to fill in a bit we may be okay in those areas.
rburrel2
Member
Look at the dramatic change over arkansas and Mississippi just 12 hours out from their event.
Bigedd09
Member
Not sure if the GEFS/GFS is the best guidance to use right now. I always thought this is the range for the RAP/HRRR. Guess I was wrong lol
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
You're obviously not getting the true look at the warm nose aloft here (because it's rarely exactly at one of these standard levels), but the GEFS is very likely forecasting sleet over Raleigh & has been pretty consistent with that the last several runs.
Cary_Snow95
Member
As noted above the GEFS moved the .5” QPF line from eastern NC into Wake County
im actually curious about when RAP and HRRR became most viable -- i know not before 24 hours before start time, but we are definitely at that mark now for NC. do we need to wait a little longer before leaning more on them?
and fwiw, GFS *did* forecast very well 24ish hours out for the Jan event.
Cary_Snow95
Member
My house is legitimately on that 0c line. Almost always the case, but in the years where I’m just north of the changeover, precip always seems to blossom. The intersection of US-64 and US-1 usually is the boundary in these setups. At least has been for the last few big events
im right along the 0c to -1c line, so im obviously hoping it holds around there because i could get in on some heavy bands right north of the mixing line if so.
Yeah i'd be ready for pain (relatively speaking, at least we get something) in Ral proper. The airport may do a bit better. A metwannabe special
Cary_Snow95
Member
I’ll gladly take 2-3” of snow and sleet with the frigid temps to follow. A bust on the high side is at least plausible which is nice at this lead time
WolfpackHomer91
Member
rburrel2
Member
IMO, atlanta proper probably can't get the boundary layer cold enough to see any accumulations. Best case there would be to get maximized on a precip band with .3-.4 of liquid and only then could they flip to snow towards the end, but not enough to stick.
North of the city: Forysth/Hall/Northern Gwinnett county... I think this area could get an inch or two of snow if they get lucky with the qpf/banding... but it would be a situation where hilltops might get an inch or two of snow and lower area's have only a sloppy dusting on the ground. 300-400 feet of elevation will make a noticeable difference in that scenario.
Hopefully the heavier banding sets up close to Northern Georgia than the Atlanta to Athens area....b/c honestly it would be a waste of banding in that scenario b/c those guys are just too marginal to get much of anything significant.
Just my two cents
Bigedd09
Member
I do realize though with the HRRR and RAP is that they change wildly every hour inside the 24 hour range
I’d trade a mix or even a lot of sleet if we can jackpot precip.