Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Tick tick tick 
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- Joined
- Jan 23, 2021
- Messages
- 3,901
- Reaction score
- 12,303
- Location
- Lebanon Township, Durham County NC
newest SREF mean gives RDU a 38% chance at greater than one inch of QPF
blueheronNC
Member
Interesting how the NAM has that “deformation band” as mainly sleet including Raleigh. My “conventional wisdom” had been that higher QPF rates would keep the column cooler and favor the snow rather than sleet side of the line. But in the Gulf monster storm we saw a similar setup in Tallahassee where they had high rates but got a sleet storm whereas it was northwest of the highest rates that stayed snow. I don’t recall what the NAM was showing for thermals but most of the other models had Tallahassee at a bullseye for 5-9 inches of snow and they got 1.5 inches of sleet instead.
packfan98
Moderator
Given this setup...
- 2/3" of an inch of precipitable moisture
- column saturated all the way up to 200mb
- accelerating jet
- Gulf coast storm track
- lowering heights
- southwesterly flow aloft
Love to see the Euro trending better at the 11th hour. Also happy to see the GFS and SREF continue to be rock solid. Hate that we lost the GRAF but I also don’t know if that matters. Still thinking the RDU area is good for 2-4” / 3-6” west to east with bust potential either way. Definitely some warning shots about mixing, which is a little concerning and can be ignored. Without a QPF bomb, I would hate to lose much to sleet.
Found my model. This one never lets me down 
ChattaVOL
Member
Downeastnc
Member
Going to be a sharp gradient somewhere...I'm 10 miles from either 6-10" or 1-2" lol. Also these bands tend to be more NE to SW with coastal lows and the models seem kinda flat with the band.
SLP track and strength will make or break it...would like to see the models get the SLP back down around 1000mb or lower...
- Joined
- Jan 23, 2021
- Messages
- 3,901
- Reaction score
- 12,303
- Location
- Lebanon Township, Durham County NC
ARW suite is really enthused
Tsappfrog20
Member
Allan Huffman has updated his Map on his patreon page but it is for paid subscribers. I will share for The Triangle he has 2-5” of snow. Say he thinks the sleet zone sets up just south but could move into the triangle and would cut down on totals.
Edit: he just shared his map on Twitter
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Edit: he just shared his map on Twitter
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In 24 hrs it's jumped north almost a row of counties, at this rate in another 24 it'll be on my doorstep and in heart of system on VA line. Make it stop
snowlover91
Member
12z HRRR looking much better so far through hour 22.
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Risk it for the biscuit! You need to be able to hear the sleet, Met. That’s how you go 8+
Yeah I took the SREF-ARW core and pulled out two of the big high outliers and you get a mean of 5.66 at RDU. Seems fairly reasonable.
Brandon10
Member
Wrf ARW looks good 
I think we all know to never underestimate the warm noise in ENC
I think we all know to never underestimate the warm noise in ENC
interestedclimatist
Member
This is the most confusing storm of my entire life. GRAF keeps everyone dry west of RDU. The NAM and HRRR are also looking dry. This isn’t looking good
blueheronNC
Member
12z HRRR is losing the precip entirely
interestedclimatist
Member
We can hope the models are just scared because of Wichitas snow loss due to the dry air. I don’t buy that we lose all precipitation but it will definitely hurt our totals
blueheronNC
Member
Gulf Coast and Gulf Stream convection orientation robs moisture transport inland. Then by the time the coastal gets going it’s too late and the only location getting precipitation is Moyock, NC.
lol trash model 
QPF for 06z Euro AI vs 00z. Needless to say, better. The 0.5” contour is reaching Wake County now with a quarter inch back to the eastern Triad!
rburrel2
Member
Feeling even better this morning about the upstate getting an a solid coating of snow tomorrow morning.
Oddly, the western upstate seems to be favored on qpf.
Latest RAP looked great.
Oddly, the western upstate seems to be favored on qpf.
Latest RAP looked great.
word to the wise if the gulf convection sets up like that then this is one of those rare times it needs to be watched for moisture transport issues (gulf stealing our moisture, in the parlance)Found my model. This one never lets me down
interestedclimatist
Member
If this actually happens ima cry in my bed tomorrow all day
We ain’t done 
Avalanche
Member
I think the 09z SREF plumes might be the wettest yet for RDU. Would not at all be surprised to see the 12z NAM increase QPF (and perhaps warmth).
Nomanslandva
Member
HRRR 8 hours of snow = .1 QPF. It's been terrible this year but, geeze. 
interestedclimatist
Member
Guys, I think it’s time to leave this one to the experts to forecast. Just got the winter weather advisory for Raleigh
I think they are waiting until after the 12z runs to decide between advisories and warnings.
EDIT: Never mind, just got the WWA, so I guess they didn’t wait. Roxboro to my north is under a WSW of course.
Seems to be some disagreement between RAH and Blacksburg on warnings vs advisories for their CWA. @BIG FROSTY is closer to a warning than RDU!rburrel2
Member
I'm at least equally excited about the backside stuff Thursday morning. There will be winners and mostly losers, but some lucky people could get 2-4 inches from that action I think.
I'm especially excited because there's one heck of surface trough developing over the savannah river. I've seen this exact situation play out before, I can't remember what storm. But there was a tongue of warm surface air where the CAA winds coming around each side of the mountains meet up with each other along the savannah river after a storm and a stationary band did develop that morning along that feature and it gave Elberton, GA down to Greensboro, GA as much as 4 inches of snow.
I actually think it may have been the christmas 2010 storm.
You can see in these images I posted. The RGEM is developing that band right on top of those warmest surface temps.. makes sense you'd get added lift there with both the converging surface winds and resulting tongue of warm air.
I'm especially excited because there's one heck of surface trough developing over the savannah river. I've seen this exact situation play out before, I can't remember what storm. But there was a tongue of warm surface air where the CAA winds coming around each side of the mountains meet up with each other along the savannah river after a storm and a stationary band did develop that morning along that feature and it gave Elberton, GA down to Greensboro, GA as much as 4 inches of snow.
I actually think it may have been the christmas 2010 storm.
You can see in these images I posted. The RGEM is developing that band right on top of those warmest surface temps.. makes sense you'd get added lift there with both the converging surface winds and resulting tongue of warm air.
Tsappfrog20
Member
Winter Weather Advisory Issued for the Triangle!
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Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
I guess the warnings south and east of my position are for ice thenI think they are waiting until after the 12z runs to decide between advisories and warnings.
EDIT: Never mind, just got the WWA, so I guess they didn’t wait. Roxboro to my north is under a WSW of course.
NWS Raleigh issued Winter Weather Advisory for basically Wake County West and southwestI think they are waiting until after the 12z runs to decide between advisories and warnings.
EDIT: Never mind, just got the WWA, so I guess they didn’t wait. Roxboro to my north is under a WSW of course.Seems to be some disagreement between RAH and Blacksburg on warnings vs advisories for their CWA.
Seems to be some disagreement between RAH and Blacksburg on warnings vs advisories for their CWA.
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smast16
Member
Because they just downgraded Forsyth to WWA. We aren't getting promoted to Storm Warning.
rburrel2
Member
WWA advisory for Raleigh? lol. What a joke. I'd give them a 100% chance of warning criteria winter precip.