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Wintry Feb. 19-20

Myfrotho704_ said:
Warm nose out east trending stronger on the euro… I don’t buy how far SE it is with the heavier snow, that trend at 850mb makes me more confident. Gonna likely see QPF increase as the warm nose/warm air advection starts to be sniffed out further on the euro View attachment 170278View attachment 170277
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If that happens gonna be a thin strip of heavy snow just north of the transition line. Gotta get close enough to the fire to cook but not burn
 
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HRRR way too dry, not surprising it still sucks in it's lr and has moisture issues. 3k NAM surprised me a little this morning and gives me pause but it has had some issues with nailing down extent of precip shield of late. NAM far cry from it's way over amped days of old since updates.
Love seeing euro continue to improve. Watching radar out west today and 12z runs, should help nail this down.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Warm nose out east trending stronger on the euro… I don’t buy how far SE it is with the heavier snow, that trend at 850mb makes me more confident. Gonna likely see QPF increase as the warm nose/warm air advection starts to be sniffed out further on the euro View attachment 170278View attachment 170277
Click to expand...
C97F24D7-86DB-4423-B3E4-A3CC3C935F15.jpeg
In doing so it keeps wanting to tilt this deformation band more SW-NE, so while the precip shield isn’t necessarily expanding northwestward, amounts are slowly taking a different orientation. Note: image is from the 0z run
 
RBR71 said:
HRRR way too dry, not surprising it still sucks in it's lr and has moisture issues. 3k NAM surprised me a little this morning and gives me pause but it has had some issues with nailing down extent of precip shield of late. NAM far cry from it's way over amped days of old since updates.
Love seeing euro continue to improve. Watching radar out west today and 12z runs, should help nail this down.
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Something else to note is temps. It's way too toasty compared to reality. Even 6Z verified 5 degrees different with us at 25 here when it only has 30 or 32 modeled. Have to see how they go into tonight though because if we're colder than 37 N GA is probably more at risk than models show.
 
CltNative90 said:
View attachment 170281
In doing so it keeps wanting to tilt this deformation band more SW-NE, so while the precip shield isn’t necessarily expanding northwestward, amounts are slowly taking a different orientation. Note: image is from the 0z run
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I noticed that as well. You would think this tilt would force more precip into the storm, but not really seeing much…yet.
 
Hmmmm Graf run still looks cold. In fact snow line seems 25 miles south compared to other models. RGEM ans yesterdays Euro was closest to it...
 
RBR71 said:
HRRR way too dry, not surprising it still sucks in it's lr and has moisture issues. 3k NAM surprised me a little this morning and gives me pause but it has had some issues with nailing down extent of precip shield of late. NAM far cry from it's way over amped days of old since updates.
Love seeing euro continue to improve. Watching radar out west today and 12z runs, should help nail this down.
Click to expand...
I’ve not had a chance to look at models this morning. Are the HRRR and NAM 3k still showing that line of thunderstorms in the Gulf?. If that’s the case it explains why those models keep getting dryer in WNC and the upstate. If there is a line of thunderstorms down there we need them to be oriented more SW to NE not WSW to ENE like they were showing last night
 
Chazwin said:
I’ve not had a chance to look at models this morning. Are the HRRR and NAM 3k still showing that line of thunderstorms in the Gulf?. If that’s the case it explains why those models keep getting dryer in WNC and the upstate. If there is a line of thunderstorms down there we need them to be oriented more SW to NE not WSW to ENE like they were showing last night
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They both do have that line and I'm sure that is part of the issue for western sections, it's a little earlier in it's run too so somewhat closer to it's accurate timeframe. For further east they both having a difficult time on location of the coastal low, HRRR way south and east, frankly it's not it's strong suit and the 3k NAM really jumpy with slp placement.
 
Webberweather53 said:
The NAM is a sleet fest for Raleigh.

Although it could be over amping things, this solution in general is pretty believable tbh

View attachment 170292

View attachment 170291I
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It was showing a sleet fest for New Orleans, Florida and myrtle beach with that last one too at one point. Don't remember how far out it was but I remember telling NOLA snow weenies to enjoy their sleet storm. That obviously did not happen. While it could be right, I don't think it is and it's probably and outlier
 
packfan98 said:
FWIW, the 3z SREF came a little more in line with other modeling and sets the high end of what’s possible in my opinion.
View attachment 170280
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It may be wrong, but over the past 24 hours I don't think anything has been more consistent than the SREF-ARW core. As of now, this footprint and amounts most align with my forecast thoughts. As usual, Wake County is going to be one of the most difficult spots to pin down.
sref-all-arw_c00-nc-total_snow_10to1-1739869200-1740085200-1740085200-20.gif
 
Bigedd09 said:
It was showing a sleet fest for New Orleans, Florida and myrtle beach with that last one too at one point. Don't remember how far out it was but I remember telling NOLA snow weenies to enjoy their sleet storm. That obviously did not happen. While it could be right, I don't think it is and it's probably and outlier
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Yeah the NAM could over amp things but it’s a totally different setup this time around. Your precip generation here is largely dependent on warm advection aloft. That’s why you have mixing issues with higher QPF on some models
 
Webberweather53 said:
The NAM is a sleet fest for Raleigh.

Although it could be over amping things, this solution in general is pretty believable tbh

View attachment 170292

View attachment 170291I
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As I mentioned a couple days ago, the NAM was superior to the other models inside 48 hours with thermals on the Florida storm. If it shows sleet and all other models snow, don’t rule out a NAM coup.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Yeah the NAM could over amp things but it’s a totally different setup this time around. Your precip generation here is largely dependent on warm advection aloft. That’s why you have mixing issues with higher QPF on some models
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It’s also why you lose a lot of your precip entirely on some runs that don’t have a ton of mixing.

There’s an inherent theoretical ceiling for how much snow you can get in Raleigh here and a very small window where you either dont have mixing issues or aren’t getting fringed in some way.

It’s a tough forecast regardless and I’m glad to be watching this from 2,000 miles away :)
 
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