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Misc Fall - End of 2019 Whamby

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superjames1992 said:
Columbia, SC got 4.3” from the Carolina Crusher according to NOW data.

https://w2.weather.gov/climate/xmacis.php?wfo=cae
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Depending on where you resided in Columbia. I had nearly 6" during the Carolina Crusher.

We've had several light events throughout my time in Columbia (I'll be 47 years old in another month and have lived here all my life), although we did hit a bit of a lull in the 90's and most recently. We had our share of storms when I was a kid in the late 70's and throughout a good portion of the 80's. I've schooled JC on this previously, but too tired to go down this road with him at this hour. There have been times when Columbia has received snow and your current locale didn't receive anything or Columbia picked up more snow than your your current locale and vice-versa. Again, we've gone down this road before and had data to back it up. Not to mention, people I know who resides in your neck of the woods when some of these storms occurred.

My mind is like an almanac when it comes to this stuff.
 
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Rain Cold said:
Packbacker was a prolific poster at American who didn't weenie up a thread with wishing and hopium. Instead, he posted data, historical analysis, and model output. His one mistake was not sugar-coating reality, not nearly enough.

You see, some folks get analy triggered when someone discusses the unpopular opinion about why it's likely to not be record cold with blizzards. Indeed, they release their bowels all over the minority who would dare not hug the 384 GFS or, heaven forbid, discuss the inevitable north shift of the rain/snow line.

Packbacker's demise left an imbalance within the weather forum world. Now weenieism and unrealistic optimism runs unchecked. Maybe one day, someday, his essence will rise from the ashes of a long warm winter, where it will once again be rejoined to to a keyboard, bringing balance back to weather weenies everywhere.

The Rise of Packbacker.....
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We got a few packbackers here. Lol.

Two ways of thinking:
1) Why things won’t work out
2) Why things will work out

Both ways of thinking are right but viewed very differently. Optimism vs Pessimism (some would try and argue it’s realism, but optimists can be realist as well)

Imagine forecasting SE ridges during the winter and posting why it won’t be cold, and not posting when cold comes...then coming back when heat is forecast. Him in a nutshell. I think he liked ruffling the feathers...


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I subscribed to Weathermodels.com and WeatherBell last year, but which one is the best one now after their updates? Are they more mobile browser friendly like TT yet? Does WeatherBell have Gifs yet? Teleconnection charts?
 
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Jon said:
We got a few packbackers here. Lol.

Two ways of thinking:
1) Why things won’t work out
2) Why things will work out

Both ways of thinking are right but viewed very differently. Optimism vs Pessimism (some would try and argue it’s realism, but optimists can be realist as well)

Imagine forecasting SE ridges during the winter and posting why it won’t be cold, and not posting when cold comes...then coming back when heat is forecast. Him in a nutshell. I think he liked ruffling the feathers...


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Sounds very annoying. But if he was forecasting a SER every winter it seems like he was more right than wrong. But, even with the below there has been plenty of winter events to keep most happy. 2018 was as good a winter for Raleigh since 2004.

FAB0CE6A-2171-4ED1-B088-49E5A6D1D580.png
 
KyloG said:
Sounds very annoying. But if he was forecasting a SER every winter it seems like he was more right than wrong. But, even with the below there has been plenty of winter events to keep most happy. 2018 was as good a winter for Raleigh since 2004.

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Yes he was right a lot, but it’s not very popular to be right about that during winter!


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Jon said:
We got a few packbackers here. Lol.

Two ways of thinking:
1) Why things won’t work out
2) Why things will work out

Both ways of thinking are right but viewed very differently. Optimism vs Pessimism (some would try and argue it’s realism, but optimists can be realist as well)

Imagine forecasting SE ridges during the winter and posting why it won’t be cold, and not posting when cold comes...then coming back when heat is forecast. Him in a nutshell. I think he liked ruffling the feathers...


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I agree that both are valid. There was just usually more warm things that turned out to be real than the other way around. He posted a lot about events as they came up and shared a lot of maps.

Either way, people get annoyed too easily. It's a weather board with a lot of people with a lot of opinions and a lot of different personalities. People say things and type things and don't often understand how they're perceived by others. Some people do understand and do things on purpose. Some people are overly optimistic and some people are overly cynical. The cynics, who unfortunately tend to be right more than not, really get on the nerves of the people who are always looking for the cold and snowy solution. And it works the other way around. Very few people are actually right down the middle all the time.

I don't mean to criticize either group. There are pros and cons with both. What all groups need to strive for is to be conscientious of how they tend to come across, select their thoughts and words carefully, and try to treat others with respect. And also, if there is a poster that they just don't like, for whatever reason, either skip over the post or place the user on ignore.

There is absolutely ZERO reason to let another poster on a message board ever get under your skin so much that it ruins your day. Nobody should be given that kind of power over you...certainly not a stranger on a weather forum. Either learn to ignore the people you don't like, or engage with them respectfully, and out-fact them. The community wins when that happens.

And all of that applies to me also. I'm certainly not perfect and mess up a lot.
 
If snow falls 5-6 days out of 90, then, no snow forecast would verify over 90% of the time. Great odds.....
 
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Nope


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Webberweather53 said:
Ugh...

TV mets (& everyone in general) need to be very careful when regurgitating precip type output from the European, the column is going to be extremely cold in this setup and the freezing level on the European is below 925mb by the time heavier precip shows up & falls to -3C before wrapping up. The melting layer may be so small near the surface that hydrometeors don't have enough time to melt before reaching the ground.

Thus, that's not exactly game, set, match for all liquid precipitation outside the N GA mountains even on the European which shows cold rain.

I've seen & personally witnessed too many cases where wet snow will reach the ground even with surface temps in the 40s underneath a cold core upper low and this weekend could be another one of those instances.


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I appreciate all that you bring to the forum. Thank you for sharing your insight, knowledge and wisdom about the weather! I always look forward to your posts, even when I don't understand them fully.
 
Our met winter decade ended last Feb and wanted to look at how it turned out and what the theme was when compared against previous decades. I wonder what will be the theme be for next decade.

60's: -NAO/-PNA, snowiest decade for some
70's: nNAO/-PNA
80's: +NAO/+PNA/AleutianLow
90's: NO BLOCKING, worst winter decade for most
00's: GOA ridge
10's: Aleutian/AKridge/-EPO
20's: ?????

My guess for the 20's is a return to HLB.

I think its fascinating there is something distinguishable for each decade.

Decade-gif.gifDecadeTemps.gif
 
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12z GFS has lost closed H5. Mountains look good for up-slope enhancement. Wave still shows some bagginess before amplification. We will see.

12Z-20191231_GFSSE_prec_snow-93-111-10-100.gifon
 
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