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Misc Fall - End of 2019 Whamby

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Packbacker was a prolific poster at American who didn't weenie up a thread with wishing and hopium. Instead, he posted data, historical analysis, and model output. His one mistake was not sugar-coating reality, not nearly enough.

You see, some folks get analy triggered when someone discusses the unpopular opinion about why it's likely to not be record cold with blizzards. Indeed, they release their bowels all over the minority who would dare not hug the 384 GFS or, heaven forbid, discuss the inevitable north shift of the rain/snow line.

Packbacker's demise left an imbalance within the weather forum world. Now weenieism and unrealistic optimism runs unchecked. Maybe one day, someday, his essence will rise from the ashes of a long warm winter, where it will once again be rejoined to to a keyboard, bringing balance back to weather weenies everywhere.

The Rise of Packbacker.....
 
Rain Cold said:
Packbacker was a prolific poster at American who didn't weenie up a thread with wishing and hopium. Instead, he posted data, historical analysis, and model output. His one mistake was not sugar-coating reality, not nearly enough.

You see, some folks get analy triggered when someone discusses the unpopular opinion about why it's likely to not be record cold with blizzards. Indeed, they release their bowels all over the minority who would dare not hug the 384 GFS or, heaven forbid, discuss the inevitable north shift of the rain/snow line.

Packbacker's demise left an imbalance within the weather forum world. Now weenieism and unrealistic optimism runs unchecked. Maybe one day, someday, his essence will rise from the ashes of a long warm winter, where it will once again be rejoined to to a keyboard, bringing balance back to weather weenies everywhere.

The Rise of Packbacker.....
Click to expand...
Analy triggered and releasing bowels in the same post....golf clap from me

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Rain Cold said:
Packbacker was a prolific poster at American who didn't weenie up a thread with wishing and hopium. Instead, he posted data, historical analysis, and model output. His one mistake was not sugar-coating reality, not nearly enough.

You see, some folks get analy triggered when someone discusses the unpopular opinion about why it's likely to not be record cold with blizzards. Indeed, they release their bowels all over the minority who would dare not hug the 384 GFS or, heaven forbid, discuss the inevitable north shift of the rain/snow line.

Packbacker's demise left an imbalance within the weather forum world. Now weenieism and unrealistic optimism runs unchecked. Maybe one day, someday, his essence will rise from the ashes of a long warm winter, where it will once again be rejoined to to a keyboard, bringing balance back to weather weenies everywhere.

The Rise of Packbacker.....
Click to expand...

Just curious. What is the difference between huging a 10-15 day GFS and a 10-15 day 500mb hieghts anomalies ensemble?
 
Snowmizer said:
Just curious. What is the difference between huging a 10-15 day GFS and a 10-15 day 500mb hieghts anomalies ensemble?
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Presumably, the ensemble has more skill at depicting the general configuration of key features, likely to drive the pattern. They provide a measure of probability/uncertainty.

You raise a good question that is actually part of a broader idea, which is, how should ensemble data be used?

Ensembles really help provide an understanding of pattern stability and pattern chaos. Unfortunately, a 500mb 11-16 day mean snapshot doesn't really do that. That, however, doesn't mean it provides no value. We have a tendency to pick a couple of maps we're familiar with and use them out of context or use them in context but draw faulty conclusions from them.

IMO, that's maybe just a little better than relying on a 16 day GFS snow map. But it sounds like it ought to be a lot better because, after all, it's an ensemble plot. And after all, it kinda feels good to say, "I looked at an ensemble plot".

I want to say that ensembles get misused a lot in the weather forum business, but it's probably more accurate to say that they are used partially.
 
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