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Misc Fall - End of 2019 Whamby

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KyloG said:
Subtle trends on the past few runs of the EPS makes a big difference with solid AN temps to slightly BN in the east with a small shot at an event. I would like to see that Aleutian ridge nose into Alaska/Yukon more and that very weak eb-NAO trend a little stronger.

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Honestly decent trends. More okhotsk low means more ridging into AK and maybe less of the mega -pna. Tpv getting inched west by more Scandinavia ridging means we might be able to mute a big SE ridge. As we move forward in time I want to see if the models move toward even more troughing in the okhotsk region and can really get the Pacific ridge into the areas you mentioned. The Scandinavian piece becomes a wildcard, can it build enough to cause a pseudo -nao or does the tpv escape toward the pole or eventually beat down the ridge. Those images really show how we are teetering for the 2nd half of January. We can go into a much more supportive pattern or easily into a dumpster fire.

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cd2play said:
So, just what would it take to get the Pacific back on the rails? Is it even possible anymore?
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Honestly no it's not. Unless we get Atlantic side help it's over. And I'm not saying that to be negative. A lot agree. Below is a post from another board from one of their well respected members.Screenshot_20191228-055901_Chrome.jpg
 
It would be funny if Seattle loses to SF and in opening round of playoffs, thus going 0-2 with Beast mode back in lineup.
 
Am I the only one or do some others think we may have seen our coldest temperatures for the season? I hope not but the long range isn't looking good especially January. I'm in Birmingham btw.
 
Goose88 said:
Am I the only one or do some others think we may have seen our coldest temperatures for the season? I hope not but the long range isn't looking good especially January. I'm in Birmingham btw.
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We'll have some cold shots, but I'm afraid they will all be very short lived, and overall warmth will prevail (i.e. 2011-12 winter)
 
Goose88 said:
Am I the only one or do some others think we may have seen our coldest temperatures for the season? I hope not but the long range isn't looking good especially January. I'm in Birmingham btw.
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We haven't. It will get cold again. And were going to have a big legit SE winter storm too.
 
This may or may not be the year we break the streak of Fugly Februaries, but this streak of Fugly Febs can't last forever. Eventually we'll have at least a seasonal (if not cold) February again. February is a winter month and it will happen again.
 
We always say the models suck. What if they just have improved inside 7 days? As someone pointed out in the main thread we only get 1 storm per year anyway. As the models improve things should get even more boring.
 
When looking at these models I feel like we are trying to make lemonade out of lemons....rather we might be dealing with rotten onions.

Stinky and appalling.
 
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