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Misc Fall - End of 2019 Whamby

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ColaSnow said:
Okay. Thanks for the reply.

I think some folks have mistaken the use of this particular thread and simply abused their privileges.

Please don't anyone reply to me about this is the "Whamby thread" and "I don't have to read this thread." I should be able to open and read any thread on here and not be annoyed by posts (some, of course, not all). I understand this is supposed to be a fun thread where folks can show their disappointment, joke around and whatnot. But I thought some posts were going a bit overboard. Even for this particular thread.

I'll say it again to the chagrin of a small faction of members: If you truly and badly want snow, and the lack of it brings out unpleasantness and passive-aggressive behavior then move.

Enjoy and be safe during the holidays!
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This post really echoes our sentiments and where we as a staff got to. I was honestly to a point where I stopped checking in and look elsewhere

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Storm5 said:
Haven’t seen an update from BAMWX in a while . What happened to old the cold forecasts they were throwing out ???


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He’ll do better next year. Survive and adapt. Snow goobers and cold mongerers don’t make it long in this business. Not with their reputations at least
 
I understand people not wanting to come on here and read negativity. But at the same time anyone trying to find good in the long range are wishcasting and can't possibly believe what they're saying.

This is a carbon copy of last year minus the Dec snow. And as gawx has pointed out could be due to the MJO staying in the warm phases in the heart of winter anymore. If it's due to the warmth around the maritime continents then its GW related, which we pretty much knew anyway. The chances of having so many winters in a row with crap patterns by chance is almost 0. Really seems like cold and snow weenies in the south need to find a new hobby or even move.
 
KyloG said:
If we are going to be banning every sarcastic poster that wants to vent I would keep the your finger on the trap door button. The next few weeks could be rough, we are looking at not just a bad pattern but epically bad.

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That's not why people were banned. I'll be happy to discuss further through pm if you want

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KyloG said:
If we are going to be banning every sarcastic poster that wants to vent I would keep the your finger on the trap door button. The next few weeks could be rough, we are looking at not just a bad pattern but epically bad.

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It won’t be that bad lmaoooo ... the models always trend back eventually .. just gotta be patient
 
Snowless & Grumpy said:
I understand people not wanting to come on here and read negativity. But at the same time anyone trying to find good in the long range are wishcasting and can't possibly believe what they're saying.

This is a carbon copy of last year minus the Dec snow. And as gawx has pointed out could be due to the MJO staying in the warm phases in the heart of winter anymore. If it's due to the warmth around the maritime continents then its GW related, which we pretty much knew anyway. The chances of having so many winters in a row with crap patterns by chance is almost 0. Really seems like cold and snow weenies in the south need to find a new hobby or even move.
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Did you guys not cash in with the December 2018 storm?

I think a lot of NC is at/above average in the snowfall department in recent years, and really the last decade, though I’m not so sure that holds true further south/east. Regardless, I think many of us deceive ourselves into thinking we are going to get more snow than we have a realistic chance of getting, when the reality is that no one outside the mountains south of the VA border averages more than single digit inches of snow, and all it takes to get that is one storm (December 2018 being Exhibit A - one storm and GSO is 150% of average in that case).

January 2000 was a crap winter outside of a glorious two-week stretch in the last couple weeks of January, and that one goes down as an all-timer for many folks in NC and parts of SC. It just takes a week or two to make a winter in these parts.

Not every winter can be like 2009-2010 with threats throughout the winter.
 
superjames1992 said:
Did you guys not cash in with the December 2018 storm?

I think a lot of NC is at/above average in the snowfall department in recent years, and really the last decade, though I’m not so sure that holds true further south/east. Regardless, I think many of us deceive ourselves into thinking we are going to get more snow than we have a realistic chance of getting, when the reality is that no one outside the mountains south of the VA border averages more than single digit inches of snow, and all it takes to get that is one storm (December 2018 being Exhibit A - one storm and GSO is 150% of average in that case).

January 2000 was a crap winter outside of a glorious two-week stretch in the last couple weeks of January, and that one goes down as an all-timer for many folks in NC and parts of SC. It just takes a week or two to make a winter in these parts.

Not every winter can be like 2009-2010 with threats throughout the winter.
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Yes we received our snowfall average last Dec. This decade has been average in the snowfall dept since it only takes one storm.

But if you look at the overall big picture the snowfall is almost cut in half at CLT the past 30 years. All time avg is 5.6 inches and the 30 year average is 3.6 inches. Saw GSP had an all time of 7.7 inches (which only goes back to 1960) and 30 year average down to 4.7 inches. So using the 30 year averages this decade is ok but all time most are below that.

Most of my rants come from the persistence of the pattern bringing constant warmth. There has been zero sustained blocking since 2011 and this year looks to follow. Only one winter since 10-11 was below our 30 year average for temps, and that was 14-15. While even though we have an overall snowless and mild climate anyway the past decade has been less than stellar even by our standards.
 
Why would anyone expect snow climatology to be the same if the climate is warming?


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BHS1975 said:
Why would anyone expect snow climatology to be the same if the climate is warming?


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Why would we not think what you're saying is remotely realistic? You act like climate change is going to permanently warm everything evenly when there's not much evidence it destroys snow chances. There's little confidence there won't still be cold and snow. Snow isn't gone.
 
ForsythSnow said:
Why would we not think what you're saying is remotely realistic? You act like climate change is going to permanently warm everything evenly when there's not much evidence it destroys snow chances. There's little confidence there won't still be cold and snow. Snow isn't gone.
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We'll never really know, because this could easily be a 100 year cycle. We're just happen to be living through the 100 warm years. We are lucky
 
ForsythSnow said:
Why would we not think what you're saying is remotely realistic? You act like climate change is going to permanently warm everything evenly when there's not much evidence it destroys snow chances. There's little confidence there won't still be cold and snow. Snow isn't gone.
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If that article about mjo being stuck in 5 and 6 posted is right it will be destroyed in the south.


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BHS1975 said:
If that article about mjo being stuck in 5 and 6 posted is right it will be destroyed in the south.


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It would mean it will be a very long time before we get out of this mess, probably at least several more years.
 
cd2play said:
It would mean it will be a very long time before we get out of this mess, probably at least several more years.
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If AGW is driving the expanding pacific warm pool it would be much longer.


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