How about models don't have a clue right now? There's too much energy in the flow....
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Misc Fall - End of 2019 Whamby
- Thread starter BirdManDoomW
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Just hang on a little longer, you know we always get our big ones in February/March! Fab Feb and March 1960 all you need to be reminded of...
I mean yeah it's gonna be a while before we get cold, but if we can ever get some cross polar flow, watch out....
Magnetic north is moving rapidly toward Siberia. Just sayin'.
cd2play
Member
If we piss away this solar minimum, and all 3-5 or so years of it are blowtorch winters, all my hope in winter will be gone
whatalife
Moderator
Yeah so we adjust our compass and turn our chair slightly so you can still see the northern lights.... but does it bring snow to Lavonia, Ga?
NoSnowATL
Member
It hauling away at about 35 mpy. I seriously wonder if that is playing any sort of a factor. Maybe not the end result (location of the pole) but the processes that are driving that. Do they make it so that in general it is easier for it to be colder to the NW than the SE? That might be a dumb question, but I don't really ever see it discussed when it comes to weather.
This might have something to do with it?
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NoSnowATL
Member
I feel it’s playing a bigger role then we think. We are farther away from the North Pole so we should be getting warmer you would think. Russia is closer and they are colder. Makes sense to me.
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Maybe.... but considering the magnetic poles are a result of the shifting molten iron within the earth's core, not sure the processes would have any effect. Maybe the magnetic field itself, but, while it is moving faster, it's always moved so that in and of itself is not new.
It's also weakening, right? Do we know whether or not the processes within the Earth's core, which are driving the changes in the magnetic poles, are linked to an atmospheric response (or are linked to things that are linked to an atmospheric response (or are linked to things that are linked to things that are link....(you know what I mean)))?
Models are just flip flopping. First the euro showed heat then the GFS showed the heat. Then they flippy flopped and the GFS began to show the hotter heat that the Euro was first showing. Now the Canadian is on board with the heat wave. Give it some time. Models should have a good handle on how hot the heat will actually get sometime after Christmas.
Man I don't know Lol.... just doing some down and dirty quick research and the magnetic field is caused by the molten iron within the inner core of the Earth. Which, if not mistaken, is more a result of the extreme heat generated by extreme pressure within the core. Also it appears since it's discovery back in the early 1800's the poles have moved over 1200 miles. Usually around 6 mpy so this 35 or so mpy movement now is fascinating and fastest in "recorded" history. But who knows how fast it moved in 1400 bc or 1710, you get my drift.
We need to wait until the energy gets properly sampled over the CONUS. Until then, throw all the models out!!! modernweenie
Lotta stuff we don't know. What I find fascinating is that no matter what we are seemingly able to articulate about a given upcoming winter season, and seemingly no matter what the background state of ENSO, the atmosphere, or any of the long list of indexes we follow is, we seemingly always find ourselves in the same position of waiting and hoping the back half of the winter will save us.
cd2play
Member
So, our winters have been hacked by the Russians.
Well maybe we need to quit trying to figure out the future so much, let....well wrong thread
just sit back and see what happens. Does seem the more we know, the more we realize, we really don't know that much.Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk
The back half of winter is when we historically average the most snow, though, so I'm not sure it's all that surprising. December is likely above the climatological average for this decade for a lot of NC between the Christmas/Boxing Day storm of 2010 and the mauler last mid-December.
And it never does. Feb sucks anymore and I have the towel ready to throw if the long range predictions verify.
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