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Misc Fall - End of 2019 Whamby

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Nick_boynton_ said:
The wheels are doing anything but falling off .. y’all need to relax
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But that's how boards work now! It's all about who can cancel winter first based on a model run and who can post the best 1 liner. Heaven forbid we just let things play out for better or worse

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Just gonna push it to middle of January, about the first of January it will be then end of January, many February, March, then April... the southeast cycle. ??
 
SD said:
But that's how boards work now! It's all about who can cancel winter first based on a model run and who can post the best 1 liner. Heaven forbid we just let things play out for better or worse

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Whamby thread doing good work.
 
I thought after posting so much good about the 00z GEFS and GFS late last night maybe it would rub off on the board and we’d all wake up to some positivity around here..couldn’t have been more wrong..Winter un-cancel, re-cancel. Congrats Alaska in your BN January #BringTheTorch
 
What normally happens is that the cold false starts most of the winter. Sort of has become a predictable pattern over the last few years. This year, we've kinda had the opposite up till now. This coming week, that appears to have changed. Now, we're back to waiting for the cold pattern to show up in the LR. And every couple of days, the LR flips back to a hostile or semi-hostile pattern...that is, if you're looking for a cold and snowy one. Would be unwise to suggest that a winter storm couldn't happen, but it's hard not to be at least a little concerned that a really bad Pacific keeps showing up, especially given the trends of recent winters and especially when we're on the cusp of a mild pattern setting in, at least for a little while.

It's a lot easier to dismiss the hostile looking pattern in the LR when you're currently getting cold and snow or when you're on the cusp of a cold and snowy pattern over the next week or so. But if the next two weeks are toast, and we start pushing the PV up into or north of AK, then we've lost the heart of winter, and we're waiting for it to start down the line. That feels familiar.
 
Tarheel1 said:
The eps sucks balls! Remember when it didn’t show the devastating December ice storm and GFS/GEFS was crowned new king
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It does flip flop, hopefully it flip flops back at 12z. Still better than the GEFS though.
 
Should be a glorious run of the American model coming up. -EPO will go *poof* and our cold air will evacuate to the wrong side of the globe. January will look bleak for us and the little Russian weather nerds will be so happy. Can’t wait to do a 500mb trend gif. I call dibs
 
I swear the PV slips into Alaska for one run and it’s a guaranteed winter cancel and torch for us ... give me a break guys we’re better than this .. I know we’re not all that doom gloom guy always posting on here ... let’s have some reason and know one model run of a trash set of models that haven’t been doing well in medium and long range shouldn’t detour us into a frenzy ..
 
Nick_boynton_ said:
I swear the PV slips into Alaska for one run and it’s a guaranteed winter cancel and torch for us ... give me a break guys we’re better than this .. I know we’re not all that doom gloom guy always posting on here ... let’s have some reason and know one model run of a trash set of models that haven’t been doing well in medium and long range shouldn’t detour us into a frenzy ..
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Whamby thread!

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:p
 
Nick_boynton_ said:
I swear the PV slips into Alaska for one run and it’s a guaranteed winter cancel and torch for us ... give me a break guys we’re better than this .. I know we’re not all that doom gloom guy always posting on here ... let’s have some reason and know one model run of a trash set of models that haven’t been doing well in medium and long range shouldn’t detour us into a frenzy ..
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Not to mention we've had storms in bad patterns before. We've had perfect setups and no storm, so instead it's best to look for reasonable potentials that stick in time frames vs trying to get a perfect -NAO, +PNA, and -AO, some SSW event, sloshing cold air, etc.
 
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