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Misc Fall - End of 2019 Whamby

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metwannabe said:
This is the whamby thread, you don't want to read negative comments,show yourself out.... quit coming in here and trying to nice things up.

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Even the great mets have weenie tendencies and love cold and snow. So they look at this crap being advertised and look for a way out. You can always find a way for the pattern to turn favorable. But I have to wonder if they actually believe it or are they just wishcasting in a sense? 9 our of 10 times those ways out fail to materialize. This constant barrage of horrible patterns in winter is a repeating cycle that not a single person can explain. Regardless of ENSO, QBO, SST's, low solar doesnt matter. We still end up with the same result (AN temps and below average snow most years) every year.
 
Mr. Golf said:
If the IOD has the convection in the indian ocean and phases 2 and 3 support colder weather starting in January, wouldn't that be good or not? At least that's what the mjo charts indicate i think.
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GEFS clearly has that ph6 look...we went want 7-8-1. IO has subsided. Hopefully we just need a little patience.

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Brick Tamland said:
Y'all are funny. Just this week Webber was talking about how good things look going into January, and others were talking about it looking more positive for winter storms than negative. And then today everyone is all doom and gloom, even a couple of the same folks that were "all in" for January. You should realize how the long range flips and flops all the time, and that things can go from ugly to a big winter storm in a week's time here. Just chill. Maybe take a Xanax.
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Because the modeled pattern is crap. We know it's not snowing in the next two weeks. And if we turn the calendar to Jan with even close to that horrible pattern being modeled you can punt two or three weeks of that month as well. You can't go from that look on day 15 to cold and snow on day 16. That basically leaves you Feb which has been less that stellar lately and that trend will probably continue.
 
Brick Tamland said:
Everyone take a breath. Enjoy the holidays, have a merry Christmas, and then see what January has in store for us. It's not that serious. After all, it's just snow.
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We all follow a weather board like it’s facebook..it’s definitely that serious
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
I’ll be on my phone looking at weather models and my fiancé will say “what are you doing on your phone so much?” And I say “Watching porn.” Because it leaves me with a lot less explaining to do
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Wow. You got a really really nice fianće, because if i told her that she would make it quite difficult on me, but too each is own.
 
In all seriousness, if by mid January things are still not looking good then i am throwing in the towel myself. Not exactly sure why the mjo can't get past the COD. To me it would eventually go back toward phase 2 or 3, because that's where the convection is located.
 
Mr. Golf said:
In all seriousness, if by mid January things are still not looking good then i am throwing in the towel myself. Not exactly sure why the mjo can't get past the COD. To me it would eventually go back toward phase 2 or 3, because that's where the convection is located.
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After the bust I had last season I have no expectations for this season...
 
Mr. Golf said:
In all seriousness, if by mid January things are still not looking good then i am throwing in the towel myself. Not exactly sure why the mjo can't get past the COD. To me it would eventually go back toward phase 2 or 3, because that's where the convection is located.
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A few days ago the E had it going 6,7 and looking like we might get it to 8 and 1. Now its stalling in 6 or in the circle. getting it to 2 and 3 from this point would take all winter and be pointless in the end. We need it to go towards 7 or stay around COD. My opinion.
 
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